Josiah Gray is the Nats All-Star.
Is it deserved? Probably so. I've mentioned several times that Gray's stats don't entirely line-up. We can talk about it tomorrow or so but what he's doing in terms of hits/homers/walks matches up better with an ERA that sits closer to 4.50 than 3.50. But in the case of the All-Star Game and selection to it, "what should be" doesn't really matter, "what is" is far more important. And "what is" is that Gray has thrown almost 100 innings of 3.30 ERA ball. He's around 10th in ERA and just outside of it in IP. The combination puts him at 5th in pitcher bWAR. If he was clumped around the guys past 10 maybe that's not good enough but no, he's separated from the bottom of the Top 10.
Of course bWAR isn't the only attempt to figure this out and in fWAR Gray ranks a less impressive 22nd.
Short of it - he's a worthy All-Star for what he's done
Is he the MOST worthy Nats All-Star?
Let's look at the two other candidates - Lane Thomas and Jeimer Candelario.
Lane Thomas is hitting basically .300 with 15 homers and some walks. He's playing questionable defense. If it were just about corner OFs we may be able to get away with that but in the OF for the All-Star it doesn't quite matter what OF position you are playing. His numbers put him at 8th in bWAR and 11th in fWAR
Jeimer Candelario is hitting about .265 with moderate patience and decent power. He's playing good defense. As far as NL 3B goes he's 3rd in bWAR and first in fWAR
Thinking about it another way, probably sits in the Top 10-15 pitchers in the NL, Thomas in the Top 10 of OFs, and Candelario in the Top 2/3 of 3B. From this it seems pretty obvious that Candelario is the choice.
BUT the All-Star selection isn't that straight forward. It's a jigsaw puzzle of fan selection, picking one guy per team and making it all work.
At 3B things are confusing. Nolan Arenado is the fan favorite. He's prefectly fine but not having an clear All-Star type year. After that you are generally left with one spot for another 3B maaaaybe 2. The combination of offense and defense makes Candelario the should be choice but guys hitting better tend to win out. Is there anyone hitting really well but fielding like a lummox? No. So why isn't Candelario the choice? Because the Nats stink
Another thing about the ASG is they reward not only good player 1st half performances but good TEAM first half performances. The Braves have slowly passed the Rays as the team of the first half and that gets them a lot of guys here. including Austin Riley. He's been good on a great team. Candelario has been slightly better on a bad one.
In the OF Acuna, Betts, and Carroll are almost certainly the right 1, 2, 3. There can be 3-4 more OFs. Soto is an obvious choice - as good an offense and not terrible on D so far this year. Castellanos makes it as Philly's lone rep. (should be vazquez but as he's not the closer he's got a big hill to climb). And... ok look I have no idea why Gurriel is making it. AZ is too good not to have 3 guys? It doesn't make sense. But other guys - Tatis, Yelich, Nimmo - could all make cases if Thomas got in. Thomas is kind of a one-guy on team pick here and they decided he wouldn't be that guy when Gray was more worthy.
Is Gray more worthy?
At this point the jigsaw has completely confused me. The big problem is the NL starting lineup has 3 dodgers and 3 braves and Elder and Kershaw should definitely be All-Stars so you have 8 spots taken up by 2 teams and 13 fighting over the scraps. I think Candelario should have made it over Riley. If he's in though Gray probably loses out to someone. Gray is a perfectly ok choice. Candelario is just a better one.
5 comments:
I’m more interested in whether Gray’s success can be sustained. Did he figure out how to cut down on long flies in a sustainable manner (super possible given he came into pitching late!) or is this a bit flukey?
Seems like that solves the question of ‘Do the Nats have their #2-3 pitcher for the next four or five years?’
Going forward Gray is unlikely to be this good the rest of the season. But he's unlikely to be as bad as he was last season. He's also changed his pitch mix a bit, cutting back on the 4-seam fastball and adding a cutter while working in a new, trendy "sweeper." The more that he uses the 4 seamer as a surprise pitch than a mainstay, the better. His results on the fastball have improved from "avert your eyes" to "slightly below average. And his changeup has been effective.
Bottom line with Gray, his results this season have been that of a solid #2 starter. I think that his true talent level is more of a #3-#4 starter, but he's a guy that would pitch in most rotations.
FWIW I've long distrusted Fangraph's WAR for pitchers. They were telling us for the last couple of seasons that Patrick Corbin was merely mediocre when he was actually flat-out bad.
@John C
What’s funny about the Corbin thing is typically fWAR tends to UNDERvalue pitchers, particularly those that manage contact well. So it makes them rating Corbin better all the more confusing. I think that’s my problem with fWAR, Fangraphs gives a number based upon how their numbers say a player “should be” performing rather than how the player IS performing. Projected outcome vs actual outcome is a flawed way to measure something so nuanced. I dunno, that’s my take anyway. I much prefer bWAR as it uses actual outcomes to give a player valuation.
As far as Gray, I need to dig into fancy stats a little to determine how I feel. Is he getting lucky or is he limiting hard contact well? Not sure. Shoot Harper may have answered this question already. I’ve been traveling and haven’t kept up with this blog recently as well as I typically do. Is Gray a 2 or a 3 is not really that big of question. He seems to be a middle of the rotation guy, who is young enough that he still has room to take steps forward. If he continues like this, the Nats have found 1 piece of a puzzle. Lock him up long term and look for the next puzzle piece.
@Ghost
Amen. Lock Grey up. And Gore, while we're at it. And Garcia, if possible. The killer Gs?
The OGs
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