CJ Abrams has quickly made himself an average bat after languishing much of the year. He flirted with a little patience early, a little power after that but in general has been a subpar bat. But in July he's putting up a .383 / .431 / .596 line. What changed?
Fancy stats will tell you first to look to BABIP - batting average for balls in play. Basically if you don't whiff (or walk or homer) you are putting balls in play and for the most part (we'll talk about the next level in a second) there's a range of values guys hit around, roughly .250 to .350 with the middle being around .290*. If you are outside of that or even on the edges one can probably expect a fall back. Abrams over the first three months put up .277, .277, and .289 lines. If you think he's a poor hitter then these are where you'd expect him to lie. His July number? .425
Ok so that's a warning sign that not only is the .383 not sustainable (duh) but very much not so. But there are reasons guys hit better. They hit the ball harder (faster hit balls tend to go for hits more) and hit more line drives (line drives tend to go for the most hits). And Abrams IS hitting more line drives, up to 30% from the high teens in other months. Going hand in hand with that (usually) he's hitting the ball harder or more precisely he's hitting nothing soft with a soft hit rate under 10%. So these suggest he is hitting better. Not .383 better, but better.
Other things to note is where his K-rate is. Is he putting more balls in play? Yes. It's down from over 20% to 11%. Meanwhile the walk rate, while not good, is in line with his expectations around 5%.
All in all you have a guy who is hitting better and is also getting lucky and the combination has produced... well you've seen it. It's produced a two-week stretch that's taken a guy mired in below average world and made him an average bat in what feels like overnight. If this continues he won't hit to that July line but looking at these stats, you try to find a guy with a similar profile in 2022. Thing is that's very hard. Guys who hit the ball this hard are more homer guys. Guys that make this much contact are more slap hitters. You might see him as the best version of Jeff McNeil or Adam Frazier? Able to hit a few more homers and use his speed to get a few more hits and extra bases. That's a very useful player, bordering on All-Star. It's the player people thought Abrams could be.
But again that's if he keeps it up. Anyone can hit for two weeks. The three months before this need to take precedence. He needs to do this not through the end of July but pretty much the end of the season.
Another note is he has about as many AB this year as last so if you want to compare 2022 to 2023 now is a decent time to do it. Overall he's hitting for more power and better overall but trading some Ks for it. That's an ok trade-off. He appears to be learning to hit a variety of pitches better. He still doesn't walk. Overall 2022 to 2023 would say a noticeable improvement. What the next 2 1/2 months is for is figuring if that's a clear step up (keeps his OPS+ around 100) or simply a half-step (more in the 85-90 range). You'd take either but the former suggests maybe something more* while the latter suggests a guy that will fill a role but maybe not much more.
*guys who hit worse than .250 generally fall out of qualification which explains the discrepancy when you look at the spread for qualified batters where the average creeps up closer to .300
** but maybe not - see Luis Garcia
3 comments:
No comments? I don't have any comments either, but it was an interesting post.
Brady House was promoted to AA. That's a good sign. And apparently, he's being converted to a third baseman, which makes sense if Abrams is going to be the SS.
Great analysis. This is a good time to chime in with the comment that there are human baseball players involved. Perhaps he's learned how to identify fastballs and hit them harder. Next, pitchers will look at what he's hitting harder and throw different things at him, and we'll see how he handles that.
A welcome development to be sure, and there'll surely be some reversion to the mean, but we'll have to see how long he can maintain at least some of this extra production.
While CJ Abrams has shown improvement in July with an impressive .383 average, it's essential to approach his recent performance cautiously. The high BABIP suggests some luck in his hitting outcomes. Despite hitting more line drives and the ball harder, his sustainability at this level remains uncertain. His reduced strikeout rate and improved plate discipline are positive signs, but he needs to maintain this form for a more extended period to validate his progress. A comparison between 2022 and 2023 reveals noticeable improvement, but the next few months will determine if he can consistently perform at an All-Star level or settle into a valuable role player status.
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