Can the Nats get worse? Definitely! And we'll probably test that theory in a week after the trade deadline. Don't worry that not much has happened yet. Trade deadline deals are really smashed into the last day or two. There isn't much reason to rush.
Let's take a roll through who's available and figure how likely they will be dealt and what they might get back
Lane Thomas - Lane hasn't slowed down. If anything he's made himself look better with a series of OF assists. With his total defense no longer seen as a liability (which was always questionable based on small sample size this year) there isn't a good reason not to snap up a guy who'd be a very good 3rd OF for anyone and a decent 2nd/DH for contenders with trouble in those areas. He's GONE. For what? Given the contract and the talent he's going to bring back the most. But in this environment think a low Top 100 prospect (hopefully a SP prospect) and some young throw-in.
Jeimer Candelario - With his rebound back to a solid offensive profile and stellar D Jeimer would improve nearly anyone's 3B situation. The Nats don't look like they care to sign him and as a FA at the end of the year that means he's done as a Nat. GONE. But as a FA at the end of the year he won't bring back much. I'd guess around a teams 10th best prospect. But a good system's 10th if that means something. (note : it means very little)
Kyle Finnegan - boringly dependable but cheap and on his next team for 2 more years. You aren't going to get much more for him unless he surprisingly blossoms next year but I don't see that happening, do you? Could get a guy back that projects to be Kyle Finnegan in a couple years, which is... ok! GONE for a teams best SP converted to a reliever using 3 pitches to get guys out instead of a 100MPH fastball and a hammer of another pitch.
Hunter Harvey - hurt but also the most intriguing guy here. A team could think they could make him a star reliever IF he can stay healthy. Which he isn't right now. Based on what we've seen he's on the mend but not quickly. A lot depends on if a team feels he can pitch this year but I think that someone might even like the idea of picking him up for the next couple years. I think a savvy team makes a decent offer, think two guys on the low end between 10-20 from a good system, on the chance of a dominant cheap relief arm for 2 years, even if those two are 2024 and 2025 LIKELY GONE
Dom Smith - Dom bounced back to be ok but only ok and a 1B without power isn't in demand. I think the only contender that would be improved by Smith would be Houston with the aging overnight Jose Abreu but I can't see them make a deal for Smith. I can't see anyone making that deal. He does serve a purpose for the Nats though as a decent fielder helping Abrams defensively. HERE
Joey Meneses - for a brief moment Joey looked like he was going to have a 2nd half like last year but he just hit his first homer in a while last night. I think Joey is fine and will draw some minor interest as a bench role filler but without a good spot I think other options will take up any worthy trade returns and the Nats won't bite on the one A-ball lottery ticket that would be the best thing they could get for him. Some fans will complain and never follow-up to see that A-ball guy topped out hitting .190 in High A in 2025 before going back home to sell cars. HERE
Trevor Williams - they desperately wanted Williams to have a good 2nd half to spark his value but it didn't happen. I don't think anyone will trade for this guy rather than throw up a random AAA arm which might find something more long term of interest. The good new for Trevor is he'll start for the Nats next year and have another chance to make his dreams come true before heading back to the pen. I mean let's face it. The Nats rotation is the opposite of New York City. If he can't make it here, he can't make it anywhere. HERE
Corey Dickerson - he got hurt and did nothing when healthy not even posting interesting splits. While teams love their vets, Corey isn't bringing anything to the table. I don't think he gets the Nats offers. I don't think the Nats have a reason to keep him. WAIVED
10 comments:
I think trading Candalario is bad math. He isn't particularly old, his defense doesn't seem like it will regress, his bat seems like it will continue to play for a couple years, the trade return is likely to bring in less than 2 WAR for the lifetime of the player, he isn't blocking anyone. It seems more likely that that Candalario is producing at 3 War in 2025 than the players we get back will produce that over their lifetime. I guess no-one wants to stay in Washington or the owners don't want to spend any money at all.
Unfortunately, Candelario is gone. He's a free agent at the end of the year, and there is no way the Nats are going to sign him to a more expensive, multi-year contract. The Nats have prospects for 3rd base, notably Brady House.
I disagree with Harper about Lane Thomas. I think he stays. He's a fan favorite (well, same was true of Scherzer, Soto, Harper, and Trea Turner). But more importantly, the Nats have 2 more years of control. Thomas would be a valuable starter on a 2025 team that maybe, just maybe, will have a shot at a wild card with a lot of luck.
Patrick Corbin also could be gone. The Nats would have to eat most of his salary, but he wouldn't be a bad pick-up for a team looking for a 4th or 5th starter. But he'll bring so little in return that he'll probably stay, if only because the Nats need 5 starting pitchers, and there isn't exactly anyone at AA or AAA that is being blocked by Corbin.
I hope the only trades are relievers and Jeimer. I think trading Thomas could end up biting the Nats in the future, I don't think the return will be worthwhile and with 2 years of control he's better off staying put to help jumpstart the contention window in a couple years.
@Harper -- Pretty much agree down the line, though I you're too down on teams' 10th best prospects. Yes, the median outcome of that prospect is <2 WAR career, but a decent number of those folks become useful and not a few become really good. You can fiddle around with the risk vs upside, but I would expect and be really happy with a guy like Susana or Rutledge or Lile or Vaquero for Candy. That's a great outcome and what we were hoping for when we singed him.
Re: The concluding sentence in both the Meneses and Williams sections.
I must say, Harper, the crueller you get, the funnier you are.
Re: Corbin I don’t think there’s any way this ownership group eats his salary while they’re trying to sell the team. So if they’re able to get a bit of it off the books, it happens, otherwise no chance.
Good analysis Harper.
Do you think the Yankees will trade for Jeimer?
I like Lane, and am not opposed to retaining him, but he seems like a sell-high guy to me. In addition to his bat, he also is a plus base runner per Fangraphs.
No way they trade Lane Thomas, he's treated like this generation's Ryan Zimmerman, and when your team sucks, you need fan favorites to maintain interest. Same reason they won't trade Meneses for a bag of balls, he's more valuable as a fan-favorite curiosity than a lottery ticket of a lottery ticket. Everyone knows Jeimer was a hired gun, and we're all happy that he had a nice rebound season and we all wish him well in Anaheim or wherever.
IMHO, the only player that should be traded is Candelario. He was (is) a 1 year rental just like Dickerson, Smith and possibly Williams were, but all the others do not have any value in the market. Our bullpen is a mess with only the back end of Harvey, Thompson and Finngan who cost very little.
I'm genuinely not sure about Lane Thomas, but I do think that it would take what Harper would consider an overpay to get him, simply if Harper is right about what he is, he has more value to the Nats than he does to a contending team.
'Cause, ultimately, someone has to play outfield for the Nationals, and Thomas is the only one of the bunch who would conceivably belong on a playoff team's roster. Robles is hurt and has spent three years being bad. Call right now looks like a "defensive replacement and pinch-runner" guy and if he hits a bit better might aspire to be an OF4. Garrett looks like an OF4 or maybe the short side of a platoon. Dickerson is cooked. Next year, the Nats are hoping to see Wood and Crews up in the majors and will give them all the chances they can handle, but that still leaves a third OF slot to play. (Nothing indicates that Hassell is ready for a MLB starting job in 2024).
So, if someone is willing to give the Nats the kind of prospect package that would buy 2-1/3 years of a borderline All-Star outfielder (say, for example, the kind of thing the Nationals themselves gave up for Adam Eaton), then yeah, I'm sure that Rizzo will move him. He'd be stupid not to. But if all someone is willing to pay is "short side of a platoon" value (the kind of thing the Mariners wanted A.J. Pollock to be, before he turned out to be neither side of a platoon), then the Nats are better off just keeping him--because he'd still be a useful player for the Nats and he'd have the chance to build value by continuing to play well (because 1-1/3 years of a 4-win OF gets you a better return than 2-1/3 years of a 2-win OF).
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