Let's get in all the bad headlines now.
The nats drafted Dylan "DC" Crews with the first pick in the draft and everyone is pretty happy about it. This was an unusually deep draft and people felt the first 2-3 picks in particular were very good. Not Strasburg/Bryce generational, but only a step below that. Some were hoping for Paul Skenes, the pitcher, to drop to the Nats, as a great starting pitcher brings the most value back but the Pirates didn't flinch and they took him. That made the Nats job pretty easy.
Crews is a fantastic hitter, as a junior last year he hit .426 / .567 / .713. He has average, patience, and power. Everything you could want as a hitter. In the field he's good, possibly very good. He mans CF for LSU but in a more competitive talent pool probably shifts over to corner OF. A good corner OF mind you, but a corner OF. His defense is not elite. The one thing he hasn't really done in run, but the Nats don't run either and there really isn't good reason to ask your best hitter to try to steal bases unless he's great at it.
To me this is the best pic for a Nats team still looking for quantity as much as quality. They have some young guys in the majors now that can be part of the next great team. What they need are stars though, and quick. Crews fit that bill the best. Like all draft picks he could fail to live up to expecations, but the way I see him he's such a sure thing that a non-injury related "failure" would be something like Justin Upton - a very good 15 year multiple All-Star major leaguer who never made the jump to be really special.
A quick look back at first college hitters taken since the Nats took Rendon in 2011:
2022 Jacob Berry (6th pick - MIA) : Struggling in high A
2021 Henry Davis (1st - PIT debut 2023) : Flew through minors (incredible eye), not impressive start in majors this year
2020 Spencer Torkelson (1st - DET d2022) : Rushed through minors showing power and patience, lack of average is hurting him in majors
2019 Adley Rustchman (1st - BAL d2022) : Looked ready, Nearly won ROY in 2022, a star at C.
2018 Joey Bart (2nd - SFG d2020) : steady minor league rise having trouble with the last step of hitting in the majors
2017 Brendan McKay (4th - TBR d 2019) : a Shohei Ohtani type who couldn't hack doing both in minors, hitting was harder so he's a full time pitcher now.
2016 Nick Senzel (2nd - CIN d2019) : He did look ready quickly but hasn't hit in the majors.
2015 Dansby Swanson (1st - ARI d2016) : Rushed, solid if unspectacular bat at SS
2014 Kyle Schwarber (4th - CHC d2015) : Crushed minors, in majors has the power but also Ks a ton more than you would have expected.
2013 Kris Bryant (2nd - CHC d2015) : Great in minors, injury issues have held back what could/should have been a great first half of his career.
2012 Mike Zunino (3rd - SEA d2013) : Rushed up, journeyman catcher with some surprisingly good years.
What does this tell us? It's possible that we'll see Crews next year but likely will first see him in 2025. This is regardless of how well he does in the minors. There is a base belief in a guy drafted this high that as long as he doesn't look overwhelmed you are going to push him up as fast as you can.
It also says he's almost certain to be a major league player as none of these guys are complete washout. Senzel has disappointed, but he's also hurt his hand, ankle, shoulder, knee and maybe something else. Bart is the only true miss but he's also a competent catcher who works hard and if he can get to average in D and bat there's good value there. I'll say it's too early for Torkelson.
On the downside though I'll note that even crushing runs through the minors like Schwarber had doesn't tell us what kind of major leaguer the guy will be. The last step is the hardest because great major leaguers don't get pushed up to Super Major League. The majors is a top heavy league in a way that the minors are not.
If we simply make Crews a Lane Thomas 2023 with good defense. That's one more piece. It still means stars have to be found but you also have to piece together the rest of the team and Crews looks almost certain to be a piece.
15 comments:
Well, that was an antidote to the nutball-crazy podcast that just declared that Crews will make the Nats contenders as soon as next year. I think it is a given that he will make the Major Leagues, but it is probably good to calm down before Rizzo has even convinced Boras to sign a contract.
Keith Law actually has Crews at #1. He thought Crews was the best available player in the draft.
I will say after watching his highlights that Crews ability to wait on breaking balls and then deliver the same swing is very impressive and should play well in MLB
Would've preferred Skenes, but very happy with Crews. If Upton is the floor, there's nothing to complain about. Seems like none of the scouts out there have good comps for him, but Upton, Tucker, and McCutcheon have been thrown around. I'd gladly take a "Hall of Very Good" type player to get the rebuild jump-started
If you just kept going back a few years, you’ll get to who he reminds me of the most. Dustin Ackley. Which scares me
I’m very happy. I think I much preferred the position player to a pitcher. I have ZERO data to back this up, but I feel like the flameout rate is MUCH higher for pitchers than bats. I guess I feel like hitters are a little SAFER? And with the horrendous luck DC sports has, I feel like if the Nats had drafted a pitcher he would surely turn out like Matt Harvey….
If Crews fails, and as Harper says, he’s Lane Thomas 2.0…at least he’s contributing.
I feel like adding anyone who is practically guaranteed to be major league talent is a reason to cheer up about the roster. None of the current young guys are sub-replacement. Maybe nobody pans out as stars, but they belong on a MLB team. Reasonably competent is better than I expected at this point.
I'm very happy with a player whose non-injury expected floor is "major leaguer" and whose ceiling may be "Bryce Harper." An OF of Thomas/Wood/Crews with basic competence in the middle in Ruiz/Abrams/Garcia really starts to look like a MLB lineup, especially since 1B/DH thumpers in the Schwarber mold are generally available in FA at a reasonable cost, meaning that Rizzo can focus any big-money moves on the pitching staff (which suits his historical team-building style in any event).
Of course, player development is the key to all and any of this, but hey, cause for optimism.
@Dezo: well said, I agree. I wanted Skenes, but silly to be disappointed in Crews. I also like the Morales and Sykora picks as well (pending Sykora honoring his commitment to Texas).
Regarding the Ackley comp Anon 1:12 noted above, this is also a very real possibility. Not saying they’re the same and I am more confident in Crews panning out. Yet, it serves as a reminder that all of these top picks are “destined for greatness” according to the pundits. I went back and watched the real time commentary on the Nats picking Elijah Green last year. Yes it’s still early, and yes he’s still young, but I’m not at all impressed. Seems like a red flag that needs more concern among execs is the swing and miss rate. Green had issues with that entering the draft and it seems he hasn’t been able to improve that at all. Unless he unlocks some Gallo pop in his bat, the strikeouts + zero power = swift exit from professional baseball. I suppose unless he has elite defense, then he can stick around on the bench but I hardly believe that was Rizzo’s hope with a #5 overall pick.
Nothing is certain about signing Sykora until the deal is done, but I'm optimistic. He was the first pick of Day Two of the draft, meaning that the Nats had all night and the next morning to reach out to him and work out what it would take to sign him. He has already posted "Extremely grateful - can't wait to get to work!" on social media, so it seems a pretty good chance.
https://twitter.com/travissykora1/status/1678554868670164998?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1678554868670164998%7Ctwgr%5E62353ef6e4bf339e3fca816dcad987f7ebc08b40%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.burntorangenation.com%2F2023%2F7%2F10%2F23790080%2Ftravis-sykora-drafted-washington-nationals-texas-longhorns-baseball
To keep the headlines in check we're going to need Crews control. Or this could turn into a Crews-ade. Replete with thumbs Crews.
Any more bad punsters should be Crewsified.
Why is nobody talking about Blake Rutherford? Harper mentioned him a white ago, and he's still hitting in AAA after the promotion. First rounder, only 26, maybe something has clicked?
Drafting Dylan 'DC' Crews as the first pick in the draft seems like a smart move for the Nationals. With his impressive hitting stats and overall skill set, Crews has the potential to become a valuable asset for the team. While there's always a chance that any draft pick may not live up to expectations, Crews appears to be a promising player with a high ceiling. Looking at past college hitters taken in recent drafts, it's clear that success in the minors doesn't always guarantee immediate success in the majors. However, even if Crews develops into a player similar to Lane Thomas with good defense, he could still contribute significantly to the Nationals' roster. It will be interesting to see his progress and how he performs as he advances through the minors. Overall, Crews looks like a strong addition to the Nationals' organization.
Something else for the Crews hope chest that was only sporadically mentioned: Crews hit the ball harder than anyone in this year's draft.
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