We're hitting the post trade deadline pre-playoff push month of August where it's about pushing through the season for those not looking at the playoffs. Hey! That's the Nats. The Nats are basically looking at EVERYONE and where they end up. I don't know if there is a set spot anywhere, at least at the plate.
The mound is actually easier. Assuming health Gray, Corbin, Gore, and Williams will all start next year. We've seen the Nats don't care about how bad Corbin pitches, I imagine the same will hold for Williams. There aren't arms banging on the door to replace them so in they go. Same with Gore. It's hard to look at his average year through 2/3rd and think of a failure strong enough that he isn't back on the mound in April. In the pen the same would go for Finnegan, Thompson, and Harvey. We're talking reasonable finishes here in all cases. Of course if anyone started giving up homers on every pitch, got sent down to AAA and did the same they'd be out.
Irvin and the bullpen arms could secure spots in next year as the 5th starter and the rest of the pen, but having your 5th starter and rest of the pen open is pretty typical for teams.
On the field it's weird but I can see almost anyone being set up to lose their spot to start 2024, except Thomas who they've somewhat committed to and Abrams who has built himself a nice cushion and occupies a position the Nats have few alternatives at. Ruiz is not hitting and is considered a bad fielder so if he has a terrible two months at the plate you can't tell me they wouldn't consider letting Adams start and having Ruiz back in AAA for tuning. Smith could not hit his way out of 1B. Garcia almost has done that at 2B. 3B is a hole, as is CF and LF. Garrett has hit well but is working off the fewest ABs and could end up much lower. Meneses is probably safe to have a spot on the team, but could single his way out of a starting DH job and onto the bench.
So basically how everyone hits is going to be important over the next 50 games. Most likely nothing changes from what we assume, but it could.
As for the majors it looks like this
The AL East is a Baltimore/TB fight. By stats the division should be TB, Balt/Tor/Bos with the NYY a half-step behind that. The O's have been lucky to be where they are. Given Baltimore didn't really try at the trade deadline I side with stats and expect TB to overtake them. Toronto in theory could have made a run but didn't try to get substantially better.
The AL Central has Minnesota over the Guardians and I'd expect that to remain the case. The Twins did nothing but the Guardians didn't really go for this year either. I do like how technically the Tigers are in striking distance at 48-60. It'd be fun but they got worse
The AL West is a Rangers/Astros dogfight and both went for it. Good for the Rangers (it'll never be good for the cheaters until they are all gone). The Angels also made a play but given their position and the quality of the teams ahead of them it can only be for the WC. Seattle gave up.
The AL WC is anyone's guess. The HOU/TEX and BAL/TB losers should both make it given team quality (HOU/TEX/TB or the cushion they have BAL). That leaves one open spot for a bunch of teams who have about the same talent. You have to figure it goes to TOR or LAA since they improved their lot at the deadline and I think everyone is rooting for Not Fooling Us It is Not Los Angeles Ohtanis. The other options of BOS, who have become formidable at the plate as the new youngsters got good and Turner rose from the dead, or the NYY, who have easily the best pen in baseball and with Judge are a much better team, would only please their fans. Like me! Go Yankees! Because I know if they lose it still won't get Boone fired so there's no reason to hope for that!
The NL East is a runaway Braves title.
The NL Central is interesting. Cincy is in the lead and Milwaukee is trying to catch them but the Cubs have been the best team. The Cubs also tried the hardest at the deadline. I see them taking it, but it's not a guarantee.
The NL West has the same old great Dodgers holding off the same old "why is this team this good" team. This year it's SF again and Arizona isnt' far behind. The Padres are actually really good but also incredibly unlucky (8-16 in one run games) and that bad luck has cost them a chance at the division.
The NL Wild Card is more open than the AL one because the best teams on paper (Cubs, Padres) are trailing a bunch of teams of varying good luck (Reds, Marlins, Brewers, Phillies, Giants, D-backs). With the Cubs my pick for the central, I guess give me the Phillies, Reds, and ever lucky Giants.
As for stats Arraez is hitting .378 but that's not going to cut it for a run at .300 (basically he has to hit .450 the rest of the way). Ohtani (and Olson) I guess have far outside shots of 60 homers but would have to end with their two best homering months. We're likely to finish with maybe 15 guys stealing 30+ bases where last year we had 6. No one is going to win 20. We're probably topping out at 17. We'll have a handful of guys at 200IP. No one is doing anything really special on the mound
6 comments:
There's "unlucky," and then there's whom-the-gods-wish-to-destroy "unlucky."
Padres are not only 6-18 in 1-run games, but 0-10 in extra inning games--the only team in the majors without an extra-inning win.
also 13-14 in 2-run games, 7-7 in 3 runs games. If you score a lot of runs and give up a few you'd expect your 1-run game results to be a little better than .500 and it to generally scale up from there. Poor Padres. I think they'll have a good finish but dug themselves too big a hole.
Outside a near-impossible collapse or an injury, Ruiz's spot is safe. Remember he's still among the unluckiest hitters in the league and should be producing at least a league average batting line. And FG's defensive metrics for catchers are swamped by the receiving stats. BR has his defense at replacement level. Still, obviously, something for him to spend hundreds of hours working on this offseason, but it's not going to get him sent to AAA.
(As an aside, one big thing for me this year has been the huge discrepancies for hitters' balls and strikes on umpire scorecards. It's made me doubt the skill elements of catcher framing, or at least to shift the dial way towards noise and away from signal. I don't doubt Ruiz is worse than average, but his terrible numbers feel like a lot of bad luck. FG has his defense last year at +7 runs and his defense this year at -7. BR has it at +0.5 wins last year and 0.0 this year, so it's a swing of only a third as much.)
To my mind, here are the main questions:
1. ML positions up in the air. Who, if any, of Alu, Call, Garrett, Rutherford and Irvin makes their case to be a part of the longterm plan? I suppose the same goes for the "et al" of the bullpen, though there's so much variance there, no one is ever really safe as a part of a longterm plan. Also how does Garcia react to being sent down? Will he be back quick or will he have to fight for the job next spring?
2. Injury / recovery watch. Henry is the biggest one, and he's had a bad couple of months. Very pollyanna-ish take in MASN today. I guess we'll see. Bennett has been shut down since June. They say he's not hurt, but they also lie a lot. I'd like to see some health and results from Robles, Pineda and Baker too.
3. Do either Wood or House force open an opportunity to make the roster next spring? I think the inertia on both "no", with Wood being the closer to "maybe", but I also think that there are realistic performances that can change that.
On the league-wide stuff, I don't really follow it outside the actual playoffs, but go Padres and go Angels!! And go Arraez and go Othani! Though I do recognize those are all long shots.
Don't look now, but Lane Thomas is in quite a slump. His OPS has fallen to .792 (I think it was as high as .840). In his last 10 games, he is 5 for 36, with 1 walk, no home runs and no stolen bases.
Time to look again
So much for the bad news. But when did the Nats win 9 out of 14?
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