The Nats made a single deal at the trade deadline, electing to keep guys like Finnegan and Thomas over whatever was offered for them. As both would have a place in the team in the next year (or beyond if everything goes perfectly, which of course it will) you can see why they did it. There will be future gnashing of teeth if the Nats flounder but understand - most guys traded for end up as nothings. This includes guys traded for good players. It took the Nats dealing Scherzer AND Turner to get Gray and Ruiz who are currently looking like a #3 and a serviceable starting catcher. Teams don't usually trade good players.
This set up the 2024 team to look like :
C Ruiz
1B ?
2B Garcia
SS Abrams
3B ?
RF Thomas
CF ?
LF ?
DH Meneses
SP Gray Gore Williams Corbin ?
RP Finnegan Harvey ????
That's a lot of question marks! And so the next 50+ games will be about figuring out if they have any answers for these questions. Luckily they won't create any more que... Oh. Rizzo sent down Garcia. Great. Tack a ? onto his name too.
I'm not sure what's going on there. Garcia has been scuffling with a terrible July but June was ok and May was better than that. You can dive into the fancy stats to see if there is an approach issue that has come up. His K rate was up in July but not crazy. You can squint and see maybe he's trying to pull the ball hard for homers too much? But that seems like something you could tackle here. I don't know. It feels like punishment. Especially when the guy brought up in his place is Jeter Downs, a guy two years older than Garcia who was putting up a .175 average in AAA. When you tell a guy you'd rather have THAT than you? That's a slap in the face. Darren Baker? I get it. Brady House? Gutsy I love it. Let's go. Jeter Downs? Most likely because everything says release him but that would make you look stupid for claiming him off waivers and you are hoping he'll magically hit making you feel smart? Help the team, not your ego, Rizz.
But anyway, let's assume Mike will get his machos out and Garcia will be back, back to the other questions.
Who's on 1B? There isn't anyone coming up. There isn't anyone who would come up next year. Smith has held ground as not being THE WORST. I bet he comes back. Though if you are going to do a Werth type signing for the future this is the spot for it.
3B? They are going to let Alu get his shot at it. Alu is a guy that became a bit of a cult favorite for Nats fans by surprisingly developing power last year. It hasn't stuck. But he has always hit for average so maybe he can in the majors? My guess is he also plays some 2B on the off chance he hits because Brady House is likely to end up at 3B sometime next season. Given that if Alu can do ok, he'll probably start 2024 at 3B to keep that path open.
CF? Robles is still not a FA next year? Can you believe it. So he figures into this along with Blake Rutherford who will get some OF time, and Alex Call, who despite everyone wishing REAL hard that the Blue Fairy makes him a real bat, still can't hit. Wood has slowed down so he might not make it up in 2024. Hassell feels like this year is a wash. de la Rosa, who is on the 40 man, is not close. Elijah Green has been a disaster. It's sort of a mess down in the minors. You know I'm going to stay on the Rutherford bandwagon but it could be anyone including a FA
LF? This is another spot to take a chance with a FA signing but also Stone Garrett has been.. ok? He K's too much and once his bat slows down he's going to crash hard but he's 27+ so figure a couple years on that. They might go ahead with Garrett just because it's cheap and keeps everything in the OF open for someone to come up. Which someone HAS to do good right? Just one?
SP? Irvin has managed not to be the worst but there's easily a spot here for a good signing. I can't see Cavalli heading right into the majors after injury. A guy like Bennett is a year away if he keeps up his track. Henry looks the same. You can easily push off Corbin or Williams next year if it gets crowded.
RP? You know. Guys. They'll cheap out here and hope for the best like they usually do.
So most likely
C Ruiz
1B Smith
2B Garcia
SS Abrams
3B Alu (holding for House)
RF Thomas
CF Rutherford et al.
LF Garrett
DH Meneses
SP Gray Gore Williams Corbin FA
RP Finnegan Harvey Stuff
Doesn't look that much better or that interesting does it?
See you in 2025 where this
C Ruiz
1B FA
2B Garcia
SS Abrams
3B House
RF Thomas
CF Crews
LF Hassell/Wood
DH FA
SP Gray Gore Cavalli Bennett House
RP Really who knows?
Seems a lot more fun, if not also better.
15 comments:
One thing about Dom Smith that passes both the eye test and Statcast test is he is saving approximately one billion throwing errors this season. He's 1st percentile (!!!) in Arm Strength but 87th percentile in OOA. Just yesterday he saved Jake "Alu stands for Always Lobbing Underthrows" Alu from at least two errors. It's night and day from last year when Luke Voit was about one more Luis Garcia short hop from murdering the entire team with his biceps.
Having said that he simply cannot hit, and maybe a platoon there would be good with someone like Jesus Aguilar or Trey Mancini.
The Rutherford and Alu call ups were expected and make tons of sense. The most likely scenario is that both of them are replacement level but this is how you find out if you hit the 25% chance of them being useful bench types or the 5% chance of them being 2+ WAR starters. Well done, Rizzo.
The Garcia move is really interesting and dovetails with something I've been thinking about recently in terms of the various paths for player development. If you were a GM and literally all you cared about was making a particular player the best possible version of themselves on October 1, 2026, where would you play them? For some players, what they need to work on is facing major league pitching and there's no substitute for ML playing time. But other players need different work, and time in the minors or on the complex might be the right move.
From the fans' perspective, it's definitely not always clear which of these is best, and obviously a GM has a bunch of other competing interests like the development of other players, winning games, budget etc.
But Garcia does seem like a "less than the sum of his parts" type with more potential and talent than results, and the demotion could be the best thing for him. And the best thing for him is definitely the best thing for the Nats.
Downs is just a warm body. Baker has been hurt for a lot of the year and is still coming back to form. He and Downs both have 74 wRC+s for July, for example. Lipscomb and especially House are too valuable to jerk around. They're having really good development years and there's no reason to disrupt that. I don't think this move has anything to do with Rizzo being still in on Downs; it's just the easiest way to backfill an infielder onto the team.
Also, a small note but Rutherford hasn't played any CF this year and hasn't mostly played center since 2017. The good, reasonable outcome is Blake and Stone platooning in left. Center is Call or Robles until whoever is ready first from Wood, Hassell and Crews.
Anon @ 8:59am has it right, Harper has it wrong when it comes to Rizzo, Garcia, and Downs. Downs is up because the team has no long term interest in his ability to play baseball. He’s a placeholder, a guy who will mostly not play. Darren Baker is coming back from an injury, and Trey Lipscomb has put in 42 games of yeoman work at AA … after being “meh” at A ball last year despite being a 22yo player from an advanced college conference. Despite the "meh" he was pushed to A+ for a more age-appropriate venue to start this year, and was (charitably) “meh” with a .699 OPS. The Nats pushed him again, and this time it's worked - so far. The Nats don’t want either Baker or Lipscomb being the “last guy on the bench,” gaining more splinters than experience. They want them playing every day. They want Baker to prove he’s healthy and Lipscomb to prove that he’s really turned a corner.
But yeah, sure, it's because Rizzo is more interested in flexing his muscles or is trying to justify the Downs signing? As DSpan would say: c'mon, man.
Some of us---but not everyone--thinks Riley Adams could be a major league hitter if he played multiple times per week instead of occasionally. Meantime, we have a long-term as well as a short-term need for a first baseman. Converting catchers to first basement has some history. Is this crazy or is there an experiment underway in secret practices to see if Adams can make the switch?
If--as has been riffed on here ad infinitum--the Nats' coaching/player development is "sub-par" (i.e. stinks), what makes anyone think a stint in the minors can fix Garcia? It does smell like a disciplinary issue, and it's clearly Rizzo's flexing his GM muscle
WaPo’s take: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/03/nationals-luis-garcia-demotion-minors/
ocw - on Dom. I do think he's a good 1B but if he's saving multiple errors a game you are talking about some sort of legend. I think he serves a purpose, I wouldn't scream and yell if he were back in 2024 but he's not the 1B for a good team unless you have made an incredible roster otherwise.
Anon @ 8:59 / John C - you want to argue Garcia down to the minors is instructive and not punitive. Sure. I don't FEEL like it is but you are probably right. But Downs up does push it into my realm. If it's just a warm body why not Erick Mejia? Jack Dunn? Hell Jackson Cluff? Downs has shown he's not a major leaguer. He hasn't broken .200 IN THE MINORS since 2019. Why is he up instead of guys you don't care about but are doing actually much better?
Grossman - I feel they'd rather have Smith there to help with the D than Adams to help with the O, probably because they don't see Adams as a long term piece like Garcia and Abrams (and don't mind losing). It's a choice but probably the right one. They let Adams see and crush the lefties which also gives Ruiz the needed day off here and there. It works.
I think Downs is up (paradoxically) because the Nationals *don't* care about his development. They've seen enough, don't need to see more. So having Downs pretty much ride the pine as a defensive substitute/pinch runner while Vargas and Chavis divide 2B between them is okay.
Put another way, Downs is a Zombie Prospect. A Dead Player Walking. Cruel, but he's a 40-man slot waiting for whenever the Nationals need one.
Which flags the other reason for Downs now. Bringing him up does not require a 40-man move--which in turn allowed them to select Rutherford in place of Corey Dickerson.
So: can play SS in an emergency, can pinch run, doesn't require a 40-man roster move (allowing Rutherford to come up), doesn't take away playing time from a prospect whose development is still on the Nats agenda (including himself, since he's no longer on the Nats agenda). Jeter Downs, come on up!
Of course, if the Nats DO start giving Downs regular playing time they'll reveal all of the above is wrong (and for what it's worth, I'd think they were wrong to give Downs a "Last Chance at the OK Corral" run. But oddly enough they haven't asked my opinion). :)
Downs is a guy who should be released, not brought up. That would also deal with the 40 man issue. But I guess that's what is being said here. He's not brought up to play. He's brought up because they don't know who they actually want to use a 40 man on yet. I guess I can buy that. Dead Player Walking.
Like MC said, dead player walking. The other consideration for bringing up Downs is that, unlike Baker, Alu, Lipscomb, etc., Jeter can play SS. The starting SS at AAA has been 28yo Richie Martin, a former 1st round pick of the A's who has played 170 games in MLB to the tune of -2.0 rWAR and carries a .650 OPS in AAA (74 wRC+) this season. Next SS in the thread is ... Jackson Cluff? Let's hope that it doesn't get to that.
Odder and odder: Lipscomb actually played SS a couple of days ago. Doubled and tripled, too.
Yep. It was Lipscomb's first game at SS since one (1) game at Tennessee in 2022. He played a total of four games at SS in three years at Tennessee. There's a reason that he was viewed as a "corner" (1b/3b/RF/LF) prospect. That said, given the dire nature of the organization's depth at SS at the moment, it's not surprising that they're taking a look. But playing him one game at SS in AA isn't the same thing as saying that he is a major league quality SS, or even a potential one.
@John C.
Not editorializing or discounting here, merely observing.
That Lipscomb has now played all 4 infield positions over the last week does indeed confirm the organization's
dire need (as you phrase it) at SS.
That was all. Nothing more to impute.
If I’m Blake Rutherford, I’m wondering what in world do I have to do to get called up to the bigs? Vargas can play SS, Chavis can play 2B… they’re back up roles anyway, we have only three OF on the roster. This decision to keep Rutherford down is way more perplexing that why Downs got called up.
Ole PBN - He did get called up. Though there might be some vagaries of releasing Dickerson holding it up for a day.
John C / Anon - other orgs draft talented SSs figuring if they develop a bat they can move them wherever. The Nats draft questionable SSs with bats figuring they can shift them as needed.
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