The Nats have been on a solid run and continue to show competence against .500 ish teams. That's great. Fans deserve some good play. But remember my words from last week - "Let's keep up with the kids". Great performances by the likes of Corbin or Williams are only of so much interest to this team being playoff competitive in 2025.
The Nats began this push with the Giants series that started on July 21st so it's easy enough to check out who is responsible for this run (other than luck*). Being a full month this also helps calm down excitement over hot weeks (remember CJ Adams future SUPERSTAR from 3 weeks ago?) and give us a better overview on what we are seeing.
BATTING
There isn't a whole lot to hang your hat on actually. At the most production you have some fluke Downs hits in very limited ABs. Adams crushing lefties, which is fine but also keeps him in that "future back-up C/DH" role, and some late Candelario work. That's nothing the team can hang a hat on for the future. There's also Joey doing late season Joey things which is fine but I think we'll all go into next year wondering who this guy really is. He's someone to put into the lineup but not someone to count on going forward, especially at his age.
There are two things of real interest.
First we have our Keibert Ruiz luck switch. After hitting the ball hard and getting no hits ever things are even-ing out. Also good to see is it didn't take a drop in his power to do it. Ruiz as C of the future is set. That's why they signed him long term. They believed in this line-driver guy to hit. Now they also believed he'd get better behind the plate and it doesn't look like it, but hey. He's hitting! The plan didn't completely fall apart in year 1. More work is needed but the signing was right.
Guys, Stone Garrett might be something? Stone Garrett might be something. He strikes out too much but he hits the ball hard. It would be better if he wasn't turning 28 in November and his position (corner OF) is one usually easy to fill in FA but you take finds where you can get them. Between Thomas and him there's a good player. Maybe 2 but probably not, or at least not projected out to 2025. But one find is still a find. His hot hitting has made it harder to give Rutherford time and has forced Davey to try to use his brain - which means he's platooning these two guys, neither of which show real platoon splits because that's what you do when you can play a guy you've already committed to that isn't great in Thomas and speedy D CF that can't hit in Call. Gah, I'm going to go off here about this is like watching a LL coach make a line-up but bc they are winning a lot (see luck note) no one cares. We should care! We should be seeing far less Call and should be trying Garrett and Rutherford in CF.
As far as other future Nats go Abrams has cooled. Smith is bad. Alu is bad (does he have enough PAs yet that I can say that?) but really Call is stamp it terrible. Garcia is not handling his demotion well. But BUT (and this is a big but - no jokes to be made because it's important). Crews is hitting so well (and the Nats are desperate for good minor league news) that he's skipping High A and heading straight to AA. Will we see him in uniform this year? I can't see how that's smart. But first thing next year? Maybe! Also Lipscomb keeps hitting. This makes up for the gact Wood (less than a year younger than Crews) is scuffling with pop and Hassell might be coming out of recovery but really it's a "let's wait until next year" situation. Two guys to give a whirl in 2024.
PITCHING
I got off track on that last bit. OK back to here
Harvey is back and looks right. The injury might have saved a trade and kept a back end bullpen piece. Finnegan looks good and Weems might be the third piece they wanted Thompson to be but he hasn't been since Davey broke his arm. Sorry sorry. Ferrer and Machado are holding to make some of the rest of the pen usable.
But the pen only matters so much it's the starters we care about and, huh. Gray's had it rough and Gore has continued to be up and down. Irvin has in fact been the best arm though that's just ERA. All the stats say he's pitched possibly the worst other than Williams. Nothing exciting here. No changes. Gore and Gray are here and going to be in the rotation somewhere next year. Irvin might be but he's a 5 seat warmer.
In the minors Herz had a good start? I suppose Andry Lara is finishing his season nicely. I wish I had better news for you on this front but the Nats better be ready to spend.
Looking at the hitting and pitching this run is probably even more luck than I thought. Not only 1 run games breaking the Nats way but hitting and pitching slightly improved but seeing much better results thanks to bounces and sequencing working out (likely I'd have to look more into it to see) not that they haven't been better but really they aren't much off from the below .500 team they were. It's just all working out for them. Which over the course of 162 games it does sometimes!
Coming out I see Garrett making a case and the pen reasserting that "back of the pen might be really good" thing. Ruiz's return is more of a breath out situation because we could all say it SHOULD happen but until it does you worry. But there's not much here that's new or game changing. It's the same Nats pretty much we left at the ASB. At least in the majors. But Crews (and maybe Lipscomb). Be excited by that right now.
*The Nats are 7-2 in one-run games in this stretch. Put it at even luck for them, say 4-5 and you are looking at an 15-13 run instead of 18-10. Fine but not exciting anyone and getting stories written about the surging Nats. REVERSE the luck and they are 13-15 and we aren't talking much about the team at all.
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This is basically all I wanted this season: signs of progress for prospects, finding a couple diamonds in the rough, and overall being more competitive if not exactly good. They’ll still have a decent draft pick but playing spoiler to the Phillies and coming back from six runs down to walk off (albeit against the worst team in baseball) is fun.
No idea what the financial situation’s like due to ownership flux but signing a decent FA SP to help hold down the rotation feels like the Werth in ‘11 move. I’d see if they can sell on Meneses and one of Thomas and Garrett too though, if they can get any legit prospects for them.
As sucky as the last two seasons have been it’s nice to see a rebuild mostly moving according to schedule. Crews, Woods, Hassell could be an insane outfield in the majors in two years. If one of their top three SP prospects pans out you’ve got the foundation for a solid rotation that can be filled out via free agency.
I agree we aren't this good. Lopsided losses and close wins. And without looking at the data, it certainly feels like we've been enjoying some favorable sequencing on both sides of the ball. But looking at the kids, defined broadly as folks under control in 2025, I can't agree with the negativity.
By FG, 10 Nats have >0.3 WAR over the past 30 days, which basically paces to a 2 WAR season. On the hitting side, you have Abrams, Thomas and Candy (ok, he doesn't count) with 0.4 WAR. Meneses, Adams and Ruiz at 0.5 WAR. And Stone with 0.8(!) WAR. On the pitching side, Gray has 0.5, Gore has 0.3 and Weems has 0.6 (!, but also ?). Finnegan, Adon and Harvey are all at 0.2 (and Harvey did that in 4 innings).
Admittedly the 30-day cutoff is arbitrary, and some of those performances are unsustainable and/or corrections from previous underperformance and bad luck. And a 2 WAR pace is still underwhelming for the players we need to step up and be better than average. But I look at that and basically see the folks we were counting on doing pretty good.
The rest of the bats have been bad*. The rest of the pitchers have been somewhere between bad and not good. But all of that is totally fine. One of those pieces stepping up is great, but it's not expected or needed.
And, yeah, you can say Alu is bad now. 64 PAs isn't a lot but it's enough. No power, no patience and not good enough defense. He looks like replacement level utility depth. No reason to send him down right away, but rotating Kieboom in for a bit, or whatever, is totally fine. You certainly don't need to keep prioritizing Alu's PAs.
My other quibble is about James Wood. He was scuffling back in early July, but his last 30 days is 109 PAs of 145 wRC+. If you can't call that good news, I don't know what to tell you. House too is doing pretty good as a young 20 in AA. 77 PAs of 122 wRC+ in the past month. I'm not sure how the team is going to handle promotions for Crews, Wood, House and Lipscomb but I hope we see at least two of them by opening day.
This has been a surprisingly fun season. We're a bad team, but we've slightly exceeded expectations both in terms of on-field quality and in terms of development towards being competitive in 2025. After the brutal tear downs and failures we've had since the world series, I'll definitely take it.
* Aside from fluky Downs, who still got optioned back to AAA despite a 223 wRC+. Just thinking back to our discussion around his call up and whether this meant Rizzo was still betting on him to be a piece. I guess that answers that.
It'll be an interesting evaluation at the end of the year. They didn't get that young player big push from anyone they were eyeing in the system to start the year either offensively or on the mound. But offensively Crews looks like the real deal, there's a couple of older useful finds, and a couple unexpected guys to try. Add this to the guys in the system like Hassell and Wood whose lack of push in 2023 can be waved away and it's looking ok. But Pitching - there isn't a real deal draft pick, no older useful finds, no unexpected guys to try. Just a hope of a miracle return from injury from Cavalli or what would now have to be considered a surprise jump by Gore or Gray. They could get better but a push to a true 1/2 can't be expected.
So like the year is a mild success, not exactly as planned but it is. But it's also half a success.
In the scenario where the Nats are unlucky and still 13-15… that’s a 74 win pace! I don’t remember how many wins Harper pegged them at originally, but I think it’s safe to say that would still be a team showing signs of significant improvement from what we thought on day 1. This isn’t a playoff team surging to a wildcard spot, but it might be a team showing it’s better than people thought. If so, they deserve some credit.
I still agree with a lot of this. Wood scuffling with pop though? Batting average, yes. Strikeouts, yes. But the guy is slugging .526 in his last 10 games and .548 in his last 30. Where did scuffling with pop (of all things!) come from?
I am imagining Gray/Gore being the de facto 2/3 next year. A FA who would normally be a 2/3 in a better rotation functions as the nominal "ace." Irvin and Corbin round it out. Toward the end of the season, they'll replace Irvin (or Corbin if he either really stinks or if he was good enough to trade to a contender) with any prospect that is ready for some reps. That's not a great rotation, but it shouldn't be cover-your-eyes terrible. In 2025 they bring in either a true ace if they feel ready to compete or an inning-eater to take Corbin's slot if they don't.
@Harper
How much of the recent Gray/Gore struggles are because they're approaching their innings max, and how much is it that they may have been lucky early on and this is who they are?
@Anon 9:58.
I think Harper meant "scuffling despite showing pop" not "scuffling in the way he is/isn't showing pop". Of course, as I mentioned above, I disagree with the scuffling bit entirely.
@Harper.
I'm much more aligned with your take on the pitchers in the system. Rutledge looks like backend depth to fight it out with Adon and Irvin. Cavalli is probably a useful rotation piece but innings limited next year and probably not a frontline starter even in 2025. None of Henry, Bennett, or Susana have had great seasons. (Bennett's results were great, but they were at low levels and he lost time to injury. All in all, probably close to a wash in terms of his longterm outlook.) There are a few hot and cold guys like Parker, and Herz may be the best bet for a pitcher in the system to deliver an upside surprise, but now we're talking about 40 FV prospects and it's never going to be a good bet to count on them becoming stars.
Of course the real answer for SP is to sign a free agent. I get there are probably non-financial obstacles to signing him, but I hope the team at least puts a serious enough offer in front of Ohtani to be told what they are.
I still think Gore can be a fringe ace, a 1B type guy. He's got the stuff, he just needs to get his control under control. And while he's started to flounder lately, I take it with a large grain of salt given the large jump in IP this year compared to last year.
If the Nats sign another 1B SP, or a true ace, and then you've got Gray at 3 and Williams/Irvin at 4/5, that's a pretty solid rotation that takes a step up with Cavalli. Is it a little bleak on the farm? Sure, but Rizzo's never been shy about spending on pitching. So with the offensive players looking like a young strong core for 2025, I'm feeling pretty optimistic.
And I'll quickly just echo the sentiment that, depending on the FA signings this offseason, I actually think the Nats may be ready to compete for that last wildcard spot next year, with the real push coming in 2025
Ah yes, the "Mason Thompson was OK until Davey broke his arm" take. The "Davey broke Mason Thompson" narrative has never made any sense to me. So I went back and looked at his game logs. In the Mets series Mason Thompson never pitched back-to-back days, pitching on 4/22 vs. Minnesota, getting two days rest, then 4/25 vs. the Mets, one day rest, and then 4/27 against the Mets. He did pitch three (brilliant) innings against the Mets on 4/25, but he only threw 28 pitches in that game. He'd already had two games where he threw more pitches (4/3 and 4/25) and had thrown 25 pitches on two days rest after the 4/3 game. Those efforts apparently didn't break Thompson, but the Mets series did? Only it didn't seem to break him until after he'd thrown a dominant 13 pitch 2K inning against the Cubs on 5/1 (after three more days of rest).
Even if one leans towards the correlation = causation camp, the evidence is pretty flimsy. Sometimes players just struggle. Baseball is hard. But if one's default is that one knows better than Davey Martinez, it's an easy (if lazy and inaccurate) take to drop on DM's head.
The 2023 Nats are a classic "is the glass half full or half empty?" team. Which I suppose makes the "half a success" comment reasonable. But the trend lines are shaping up in ways that support an optimistic take too.
While starting pitching is a definite place of need that will require $$$$ to fix, a decent future "NextGen Nats" core can be projected:
Position OD 2024 OD 2025
LF Garrett RH3
CF Wood Wood/Crews
RF Thomas Crews/Wood
4th OF "Survivor" Thomas (0r Pinckney/Lile,
(Rutherford, Call) but they should be in
pipeline for 2026)
3B House (Alu/CK) House
SS CJ CJ
2B "Survivor" Lipscomb or
(LG,CK,Alu,Chavis) FA/trade
1B Smith Morales
Util/Swiss Knife IV IV
DH Menesses (other?) TBD
C Ruiz/Adams Ruiz/Adams (Millas?)
That 2024 team aims to be around .500. Needs to be unrealistically lucky and make a couple of major FA pitching hits to make the playoffs.
But from a Nats fan perspective it's still optimistic. You don't jump from the pits to the top in a single move. But there is an optimistic parallel:
2009/2022 59 wins/57 wins
2010/2023 69 wins/68-72 wins
2011/2024 80 wins/80-82 wins (outside playoffs)
2012/2025 98 wins/90-94 wins (WC contender/division if all break right)
2012 was indeed an "all breaks right" season (+18 wins!). The Nats have *never* had a 98-win season since.
But steady, sustained progress can plausibly make this team a playoff contender in 2025 without the heaping pile of happy breaks it would take to do so next year. In the meantime, Nats fans can put the "half a success" into a larger picture that gives them good reason to go to ballgames/hope for the future
Speaking of Davey:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/08/21/nationals-dave-martinez-contract-extension/
@CP
I agree that is a plausible projection, but you'd have to admit that it's a bit rosier than median, no? It's just as possible that Gore never gains consistency, Gray takes a step back towards his peripherals and Cavalli tops out as an SP4/5. Those three would still be useful rotation pieces (and we'd have further rotation depth covered, which isn't always a given), but the team would need to find two frontline starters from outside the system if we want a rotation typical of a contending team.
Aces and near aces are rarely available. Needing two is a tough place to be, and getting there only requires being very slightly unlucky with Gore, Gray and Cavalli. Our internal set of unlikely plan Bs took hits with Henry's setback and Bennett's mysterious lost time. It's why I was hoping for Skenes, though Crews looks like a hell of a talent. Ace starting pitching is the hardest piece to acquire.
CJ and Keibert have established that they belong in MLB and should continue to improve. Huge development. CJ still only 22 and Keibert is only 25 (a few months younger than Adley Rutschman)
Gray and Gore are gassed. Gore reminds me of Gio with great stuff and a penchant to fall apart.
Jake Alu is Steve Lombardozzi
2024 Opening Day plz
Abrams SS
Crews CF
Thomas RF
Meneses DH
Ruiz C
Garrett LF
Smith 1B
Urshela 3B
Garcia 2B
I just want to jump in and say that I don't trust Fangraphs defensive numbers at all. Certainly not enough to say a young player is bad given a -5 DEF or some such. A month ago, Abrams was -3 or worse. Three days ago, he was somewhere around -1.3. Today he's a positive 0.4. What's the worth of a statistic that reverses that quickly?
@ocw5000: pretty reasonable OD 2024 on most counts. Main variables (barring injury/prospect slowdowns) are the 8th and 9th spots in order (3B/2B).
3B: Urshela? I read this as a more or less generic placeholder until House is ready. Urshela's OPS+ of 91 in limited duty is no great shakes but better than Vargas, Alu or Chavis.
Main thing with Urshela is he is more expensive than internal options. He is costing LAA $8.4M for the 2023 season. He will also be 32 in 2024 (turns 33 in Oct).
I'd rather see the Nats put money into 1-2 starting pitchers *and* (of course, assuming players are amenable)
Converting CJ Abrams and possibly other future core folks from MLB-minimum guys in 2024 to extended guys earning $8-$12-$14M in 2024 (buying out several future free agent years; an 8 year deal with CJ would buy out three FA years and still give him option to test free agency for his age-32 season).
2B: I hope Garcia can make it back, but he both earned his ticket to AAA and has kinda stunk it up there since.
That makes 2B something of a "survivor" competition between Alu, Chavis, Garcia, Kieboom and Vargas. If Lipscomb can continue to hit he may be moved to 2B in the future. From a position player standpoint 2B is the biggest question mark thanks to LG.
Look, I'm not here to say "Davey's great!". But I think you have to be consistent in how you look at things. Statheads will tell you that 1) the manager's only impact is bullpen usage, and 2) the only non-luck element in 1-run games is a good manager.
Now, the "book" on Davey is that he's dreadful. Therefore, nobody wants to think he's had any impact on 1-run games.
HOWEVER, let's look at the Sox series. They had to use the good relievers in the two games they won by 1 run. (They shouldn't have, okay, but I don't think that's relevant.) And then they lost another game by a zillion because the bad reliever had to go out there and take it so they could use the good bullpen the next day. Which they did, and their run differential took a beating, but yet they won 2 out of 3.
Now you can either say "oh man everything sucks, there's no talent, and Davey's a moron, so the only reason they won 2 is because Mystique and Aura had the night off". Or you can say "with just enough talent to win the games, they stacked the good up twice and lost the hell out of the game that they lost."
Am I missing something here? It's as if the "story" is that Davey's an idiot, and so any success can only be luck. And that lucky run just keeps doing. Is it possible that, despite years of not doing enough right, they actually are doing some things right now?
@John C -- I want to do some homework on this, but you know how certain starters have a rule of "don't let the other guys see him 3 times"? Well it makes a lot of sense to think the same applies to relievers. If you use Mason Thompson 3 times in 3 days, the chances are really good that the same opposing batters will face him more than once, and if nothing else, the same dugout will see him more than once and start to learn how to hit him.
I think this really means that more relievers should have LONGER outings, but then work towards only having them face a team once in that series. With the more-balanced schedule meaning that you don't play division teams 18 times a season, that could be even more effective.
"hope of a miracle return from injury from Cavalli"??
It's not like TJ is some new thing that never works. I'm not saying he's certain to be fine, but I think it's pretty willfully pessimistic to think that a pitcher recovering from TJ is a miracle.
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