The Nats are going to a six man rotation. The idea is that this will save innings for Gray and Gore and let them hit the end of the season. First let's run the numbers and see what they are actually saving here.
Gore and Gray just pitched and Adon is up Friday so they'll immediately be pushed back one game. Based on the schedule this would mean Gray would start 8 more games and Gray 7. Under the 5 game rotation both would have started 9 more games. Let's for the sake of argument say they don't hand Gray the ball on the last day of the year so they are saving two starts per pitcher. Gray averages 5.5 innings per start, Gore 5.1. So given averages you are saving 11 innings from Gray and 10 innings for Gore. What would the final totals have been?
5-man rotation
- Gray 176 IP
- Gore 162.2 IP
6-man rotation
- Gray 165 IP
- Gore 152.2 IP
And finally how much have these guys pitched in the last couple years
2021
- Gray 86.1
- Gore 50.1
2022
- Gray 148.2
- Gore 87
Ok seems reasonable to me. Both guys even with the 6-man would be hitting numbers they didn't last year. The games are pretty much meaningless. Is it better than an early shutdown? I guess? I don't know. Does 10/12 innings really matter? I'd guess not. For Gray it's pretty easy. He pitched like 150 last year, will aim for like 165 this year with the idea he can go a full year (180+ for today's starters) easy next season. Gore is a bit more complicated. 87 to 152 is a big jump, so even cutting him off right now could be justified. BUT if you cut him off much earlier then you may want to do the same at the end of next year.
Joan Adon may seem like an odd choice to fill in as the 6th man. We've seen him before a couple times and he generally has not been good. He's not a prospect despite being on the younger side to debut back in 2021 before this year and his AAA stats are decidedly middling. If the Nats were looking to prep a starter they like for 2024 this would be the opportunity. The problem is there are none ready.
Of course you know Cade Cavalli is hurt and out. But besides him the top of the minors is barren of starters performing well. Cole Henry, a guy they like a lot, is coming back from injury himself and hasn't been stretched out (or any good) in AA. Jackson Rutledge was a guy they pumped up years ago and did well in AA, but is struggling in AAA. DJ Herz, the Candelario return that more people were excited about, got smashed in his AA debut for the Nats. Jarlin Susana has looked like he has a tired arm and probably needs to be given the rest of the year off. Jake Bennett has been the lone bright spot and you aren't going to push a guy from High-A to the Majors. So Adon it is.
But Adon being it is telling for 2024. This is a team who doesn't have guys ready to jump in at the start of next year. The Nats aren't necessarily big on holding prospects down for extra control. They bring them up when ready and there isn't much ready now. Crews might look it by years end. You could push it by putting him in AA soon. But why? If Wood and whatever starter might be ready in late 2024, at the same time you have your better sense of what Trey Lipscomb might be, why not let Crews take the usual fast path instead of some crazy jet ride? It makes more sense.
To be in the Wild Card hunt you have to be say... over .500. That may not work. It's not good enough in the AL this year. But it works as a floor. If the Nats believed they had a good shot at that I think they would be doing things like pushing Crews and giving someone a shot in the majors not named Adon. But they know what we know and it's not there yet. This team is an earned 15 games under in a division that's not extremely strong. They have few new players expected to be ready to make the jump to the majors for the start of 2024. No one has broken out to be a star from what's here Not Ruiz, or Garcia, or Abrams*, or Gray, or Gore. They have a bunch of solid stones to build the bridge but lack the keystone to build around.
2023 was about finding out if this was a team that would get lucky and could get to a WC level in 2024 with some moves or would fans have to look further in the future. The answer is look further. The good news is that there are pieces here. 2025 isn't out of the question as of today. As I mentioned last post though the off-season should tell you how much they really believe in 2025. As for 2024, Adon being the call up tells you how much they believe in that, and I think it's a justifiable lack of faith. No reaches now.
*If you haven't noticed after all the talk around him being much better he's kind of settled around .260 with eh power in the past few weeks. START-able but not STAR-able.
19 comments:
The Nats are going to need a lot of innings out of the bullpen -- unless they just let Adon (and Williams and Corbin) stay on the mound for 100 pitches regardless of the score.
I would be looking to shut down Gore at the end of August, or at least limit him to a maximum of 5 innings (85 pitches) for the rest of the season. He looks tired.
The Nats really need to find the next Tanner Roark.
Honestly, it strikes me as kind of weird.
Gray doesn't need it. Even 180 IP is a very reasonable 21% bump from last year. He's not rehabbing anything, so it's just a matter of building his endurance. Frankly, all else equal, I think the team would rather he overshoot his pace by a few extra innings than shave a few off.
Gore does need serious innings management, but as your numbers show, the 6-man rotation really isn't enough. It would still an 80% bump from last year. I'd shut him down around 125 IP. So like 2 more starts. He looks pretty gassed to me too. 7 or 8 more starts for him doesn't seem like a good idea.
Irvin too is on already at a career high in his second season back from TJ. And, as a Tj arm, he is / should be on a shorter leash in terms of YoY increases. He did 103 IP last year, so a 25% bump is around 130. So like 4-5 more starts.
Looking at all of this, it seems like the obvious plan would be to shut down Gore pretty soon, have Adon replace him then. And then have Rutledge replace Irvin in mid September. (Yes, Rutledge is struggling since the promotion to AAA, but a couple extra losses won't matter, and it might even be good for his development regardless of the results.) The fact that we're not doing that is interesting.
The simplest explanation to me is that the team wanted to reward Adon's great start with an opportunity, and they're reasoning backwards from there. It doesn't make a lot of strategic sense to me given Adon's limited value as a prospect, but maybe the internal take on him wildly diverges with the public ones. This is the guy who skipped a bunch of levels and got an extended and seemingly unwarranted look last year. But also the folks in the decision making process aren't soulless automatons like our host here and maybe there are good motivational / development sub-reasons that justify the feel-good move enough for them to pull the trigger.
The more fun idea is that we want to show Ohtani that we can execute a 6 man rotation!
I also fully admit that the teams have way way better injury prevention data and research than we do, as well as the specific medicals and training data for these particular pitchers. So if they're going to pitch Gore longer or shutdown Gray sooner, I'm sure they have good reasons for it. It just doesn't fit with the public story we've heard from the Nats before or from other industry folks, so it has me looking for other motivations.
Adon was not good before his perfect 5 and two thirds. Pretty bad actually. So how did he perform so well against a strong Reds team? He did look good.
Theory 1: He has actually improved under the radar.
Theory 2: Calling him up was a surprise and the Reds scouts didn't have the book on him. So he raked against their bats.
Theory 3: It was just a random strong performance. Don't pay any attention --- look at his baseball card.
Which is right?
Adon looked good against the Reds because Riley Adams--not Keibert Ruiz--caught the game.
6 man rotation is about extra rest more than a significant reduction in innings. The best practice for increasing innings is based on a 5 man rotation. I bet the science says they can safely pitch slightly more innings with the increased rest.
Combo 2/3, with a tiny bit of 1.
But I’d love if he turned into their Tanner Roark. I kind of liked him as an under the radar prospect with the potential to be a back of the rotation innings eater a couple years ago but he hasn’t really shown it. They’re probably giving him one last shot at proving whether he can do that, in addition to saving Gore/Gray’s arms, since it would help for planning purposes if they had a cheap guy like that a la Roark (who was definitely better than a standard cheap innings eater).
I also totally forgot how young Adon is, he’s still only 24. So even though he’s not lighting the world on fire he has a bit of time to figure out how to make his (somewhat limited) stuff work.
Wouldn't be surprised if the Nats go for at least one non-scrub SP this offseason so they have three non-terrible SP (Gray, Gore, TBD) and infinity terrible SP (Corbin, Williams, Irvin, Adon, Abbott, Tetreault, Evan Lee, Rutledge, Wily Peralta, etc).
One name that would be hilarious but won't happen because Rizzo has too much pride: Lucas Giolito
More likely they'll buy low on someone like Luis Severino.
@ocw5000. Remember that Cavalli will be back next season as well. While he’ll still be rehabbing and on a pitch limit, he still looked promising prior to injury. He should be a factor in the 2025 season certainly.
@ocw I feel like Rizzo *loves* bringing in/back guys that he drafted, so it wouldn’t shock me if they made a run at Giolito.
Yep, he drafted Scherzer (though that was an obvious FA get) in AZ, but also Dan "H"uggla, Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, and probably a few other guys who joined the Nats in the twilight of their careers. Giolito would be more analogous to Max, but still
Was at the game last night. Aron did not look sharp against the Athletics. Had a hard time finding the strike zone.
Also, there was a weird chant from As fans when Nate Allen. Couldn’t understand what it was, but it sounded like “Tel Aviv”. I know that’s not what they were saying; there’s obviously some context I am missing.
On another note, Fangraphs now has the Nats at #3 best farm system in baseball:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-the-draft-and-the-trade-deadline-affected-our-farm-system-rankings/
Meant Adon, not Aron
2nd typo: meant to say “When Nick Allen got a hit”
A’s fans were chanting “sell the team”
Ah, that’s what it was; thank you!
Only thing then that was weird was the timing. The As had already scored two runs in the first inning. Later on, Allen gets a hit and that’s when they start the loud, passionate chant? Is there some rule where whenever Allen reaches, the chant starts up or something?
Walk Off Downs!
Looks like Crews needs another promotion:
https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/nationals-dylan-crews-first-two-homer-game?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
Ah, found my answer. Apparently the chant starts after the first batter in the fifth inning:
“After the Nationals erased an early A’s lead and seized a 3-2 advantage in the fourth inning, the A’s fans awaited their big moment. Whether in Oakland or Seattle, Denver or D.C., the supporters pause in the top of the fifth inning and, after the first batter, begin a “Sell the team!” chant.”
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