Nationals Baseball

Monday, April 25, 2022

Monday Quickie

 Things went from meh to terrible this weekend as the Nats finally played a second good team and got trounced. They lost the weekend 24-6 in aggregate, neither hitting nor pitching well. Corbin looked incredibly bad, not making it out of the second. Joan Adon, who just celebrated his first major league win giving the Nats clubhouse a little something to smile about, got rocked looking like the AAA pitcher he is. Cishek, who is supposed to be the good arm in the pen gave up 5 hits and 1 walk in an inning and a third. Josh Bell hurt his other knee. Alcides Escobar went 0-series and dropped his OPS to .358.  Nelson Cruz went 0-series and is now hitting .169.  It was the type of performance that would make you sick <insert obligatory Lucius Fox joke here>

Here is where the Nats stand at the moment. 

Their big FA move is crashing. Their other good non Soto hitter is hurt. Their 2018 CF of the future can field but really can't hit, but they can't replace him with the other guy, because the other guy can't hit either. They have a 35 year old at SS who can't hit. Their below average 3B is getting to average, but their average 2B is hitting below average so that evens out. They have one bright spot which is a Cuban hitter brought in 5 years ago finally finding his swing in the majors.  Unfortunately he is 34. 

Their starting rotation is one pitcher deep, making a rookie the defacto ace. Their best early reliever is down for weeks, leaving the pen structure a mess and filled with arms no one would call quality.  

They are the second worst team in baseball and after a brief stand at home against Miami they'll go on an extended West Coast swing playing the team that just humiliated them and a couple surprisingly good teams.  If they can't win this series against the Marlins they are a pretty good bet to be looking at a 10-20 start.

How is the season already long?

Friday, April 22, 2022

Trade Early Returns

Last year the Nats sold. They traded Max and Trea and a handful of other players with the hopes of fortifying this team a bit for the future. While these things are judged over time frames of more like 3-5 years it doesn't hurt to see if for the three months the Nats had these guys (2 last year, 1 this) to see if anything is going surprisingly well or terribly terrible. 

Aldo Ramirez (Schwarber) - SP - Nats put him in Rookie ball and he broke. Elbow stuff. Still hasn't seen the field this year

Riley Adams (Hand) - C - In the majors as a back-up C for some reason where he barely plays and hasn't been good, but I mean let him hit everyday somewhere. 

Richard Gausch (Gomes/Harrison) - SP - Wasn't particularly good in A+ last year but moved to AA anyway, and... nope. He's probably at the "ok try him as a reliever now" phase of his career.

Drew Millas (Gomes/Harrison) - C - the slap-hitting, high-contact, low-power guy did ok in A+ but has an intercostal strain and hasn't played this year. 

Seth Shuman (Gomes/Harrison) - SP - was pretty bad in A+ so didn't cross whatever threshold Gauch did and he is still there.  Nothing exciting this year so far. 

Gerardo Carillo (Scherzer/Turner) - bad in AA, so stuck there but the Nats did transition him to a reliever. It has not worked out so far. 

Donovan Casey (Scherzer/Turner) - OF - Donny K-See finished well for the Nats last year in AA and struck out a lot less. That has not been the case this year in AAA. But the man does swing a heavy bat. 

Josiah Gray / Keibert Ruiz (Scherzer/Turner) - you know these guys. Both are doing ok, not great. 

Lane Thomas (Lester) - playing regularly in the majors he looks like he shouldn't be

Mason Thompson (Hudson) - Also in majors and had a couple bad outings before getting hurt. 

Jordy Barley (Hudson) - bad in A ball, moved up to A+ where he's just been terrible. He's been a "if he gets it" guy and it looks like that isn't happening. 


It's too early to say anything definitively here we'll circle back say... June?  If you want some vague early takes there is nothing surprisingly good happening. Barley looks very questionable as a player and Gausch as a starting pitcher. But given the numbers brought in two failures in 12 players right away doesn't seem crazy.

Thursday, April 21, 2022

Fedde is Fedde

 D-Backs still stink but Bad Fedde stinks more. 

Fedde who is 29 has survived by simply being here and available and cheap. I often say health / availability is something to be understood to be a positive not just tossed aside in favor of a slightly better player who can't stay on the field.* But Fedde was below average at 25 and 50 starts since have shown no improvement. He's maybe the 5th man on a bad team. Lucky for him the team became bad around him so he IS the 5th man on a bad team now. 

Anyway. The bigger news from yesterday is Doolittle is hurt. Elbow stuff. Probably gone for a while. This stinks because when right he's very good and he was basically perfect this season. And going forward, the better he was the better the return would be on a trade. And also people like him. So hopefully he's back right quickly and looks as good. 

Also Josh Bell went out.  He hasn't been carrying the team, but he's been the Sundance Kid to Juan Soto's Butch Cassidy.  It's been asked in the comments what I think about Bell and if he can really hit and I think so. I think the "alternating year" thing isn't a thing, not really. It speaks to inconsistency but not a pattern. When you look at it closer that 2018 PIT year, which was meh at the plate, had him learning patience but it not coming through thanks to an unusual drop in HR/FB rate. That hasn't been repeated. The 2020 PIT year, with it's big drop in BB rate, big increase in K rate seems completely an anamoly as if he was trying to do something or be something and lost his way in the process.  I think you have to take his average stats and assume that's what he is. Ok average, OK patience, pretty decent power, doesn't strike out too much.  A good bat. Not the worst fielder at first. His start is a fluke, and there are plenty of 1B who can hit but he's a decent player and the Nats are getting value from him. Nothing wrong with that. Looking at the lineup who else can you say for certain should be a decent bat this year except Soto and Cruz?

But to recap the Nats lost their best reliever to start the year and might have lost no less than their 3rd best hitter and they were already bad.  They weren't the worst team in the NL as of Tuesday Night. But maybe now they are? Who's up for 6 against the Giants in the next 9?


*Yes I did say Don't sign Aaron Hicks long term. What about it? 

Wednesday, April 20, 2022

Technically Second

Arizona is bad. Like really so. Like one guy in the lineup hitting over .200 bad. If they scored a bunch of runs that would have been a black mark on the Nats pitching staff. That they didn't is nothing special. 

But good! The Nats are not the worst team in the National League (and by extension in baseball).  In fact they are tied for 2nd in the NL East!  Have they played a slightly easy schedule, gotten a little lucky, and benefitted from bad starts from ATL and PHI? Yes, yes and yes! Are we still talking about a 6-7 record here? Yes! But take what you can get. 

Notes :

  • After starting hot Keibert has just stopped hitting. Like at all. Given he has not yet shown patience or power that's not good. 
  • Riley Adams, Lane Thomas, Cruz and Robles are still terrible.  The replacement level MI is replacement level, which is better than terrible I guess.  Soto, Bell, and Yadi Hernandez are the only guys hitting.
  • The Nats have one homer in the last week. 
  • After a rocky first start Gray handled his next two games. I've said he's a valid ML pitcher, just not sure where in the rotation.  However, for this rotation now... he might be the ace? 
  • Bullpen is ok - or at least "better than Pirates and D-Backs offenses" level. so that's something.  Remember kids it can always be worse.

Monday, April 18, 2022

Monday Quickie - No rest for the weary (the weary being Nats fans)

The Nats teased a better outcome than they got and ended up losing 3 of 4 to the Pirates over the weekend. At no point during this weekend did the Pirates look sneakily better than we thought they would be meaning a question I posed before these two series (PIT then ARI) might have an answer. Are the Nats more 60 win bad or 70 win bad? It looks like 60 win bad. 

Still they could sweep the D-backs, currently one of the worst teams in baseball and completely deserving of that record scoring a measley 21 runs in their first nine games, tied for worst in the majors with the lowly Orioles and 2/3rds of a run behind team 28.  Let's preview them shall we? 

Basically the team is all slumping with the exception of fun-named DH Seth Beer. He was a late 1st round pick for Houston, hit in the minors, got to the D-Backs in the Greinke trade. While kind of athletic actually he does not field well and DH suits him.  The other hitter on the team Ketel Marte, matured into a star over the past few years hitting for average and power, is slumping to start the year.  As for the rest of the team... well they are mostly young (out of the 14 hitters on the team, nine are 26 or younger, only one is over 28) and they shouldn't be THIS bad. Carson Kelly and Pavin Smith were prospects that ended up average, they've been hideous.  Geraldo Perdomo and Daulton Varsho ARE prospects that are currently terrible and below average in their first real time up. So they should hit much better just because average is much better than what they are doing right now. But the remaining 3 bats include the never good Christian Walker, the aging David Peralta, and the just there Yonny Hernandez - all of which could be bad, along with a bench you can figure out the quality level based on having these guys all start. The upshot? This team should score more runs but should also be one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. The Nats should hold this team down. 

Pitching wise - the starting pitching might be ok? Might? Zac Gallen had a couple of good half-seasons before a very average 2021. Bumgarner is probably no longer Bumgarner but he is still only 32. Merrill Kelly is perfectly ok. If all three do as well as they can that's an average 1-3. 4 & 5 will be a mess though.  Zach Davies is just a guy and anyone else (currently Humberto Castellanos) is just filling space.  Nats miss Gallen and Castellanos. The relief pitching is decent. Old friend Mark Melancon is hanging there now until he gets traded later. Noe Ramirez is a guy hard to square up. Martin and Nelson are live arms. Poppen and Mantiply are dead GB guys that keep the ball in play.  It's a hard bunch to get that big XBH off of. You have to work them. You can do it, sure. This isn't a shut down group. But there are easier pens to score from. 

The Nats pitching should look really good this series. The hitting should be enough. This team is worse than the Nats. The Nats are home  Really 2 out of 3 is expected.


We are 3 series in now so we can start making some notes. Nothing more than that but we can start forming the kernel of ideas that in another 2 weeks time might form our first hot takes of the season.

AL East - it is the big mess that everyone expected with the Os on the bottom. No one is standing out though. The Blue Jays are having trouble pitching - Berrios has been terrible.  The Yankees are weirdly the best pitching team in the AL and the 2nd worst scoring team. Unsurprisingly IKF + old Josh Donaldson does not equal Carlos Correa. 

AL Central - Another as expected division. The White Sox with the solid lead.  Honestly though the Guardians should be better. They are getting some ridiculous hitting performances, Myles Straw OPS+ 173, Steven Kwan 227, Jose Ramirez 308, Owen Miller 344!  That's a .500 / .545 / .964 line. Pitching still young and good. Good manager. If the AL East beats itself up Cleveland could sneak in. Minnesota's plans are not working.  Correa IS hitting like IKF + old Donaldson early.

AL West - Angels are on top? Can they do it?  The West looks like the east - all bunched up. But the Rangers here aren't Orioles bad. Oh they can't pitch but they can score runs. Astros are struggling offensively without Correa but his replacement is doing fine and Verlander has started off hot after his loooong break. 

NL East - Mets have broken away from a disappointing pack hitting well and pitching great and that's with Scherzer being merely very good and deGrom out. Phillies aren't scoring like we thought they might (though peripherals look better than that). Braves look lost with most of the starters being knocked around. Marlins pitching does look pretty good. 

NL Central - Cardinals riding a white hot pen and some unexpectedly good performances at the plate (Pujols!) to first. Brewers are built around the idea Yelich is their star and he may not be anymore. Seiya Suzuki the star we hoped he might be and it's keeping the Cubs interesting. 

NL West - The Giants were real?  Looks like it. The pitching is again amazing with Carlos Rodon looking unhittable. The Dodgers are doing what we thought they would. The Rockies are above .500 and it's not luck? I'll with hold judgment there. 

Hitters 

Along with the people we've named and some flukes that always happen we have MVP starts from Arenado and Jose Ramirez. Matt Olson is doing great replacing Freeman. Don't worry Soto is doing fine and by that I mean really really good. Just not having one of those crazy stretches. CJ Cron (5 homers) is a big part of why Rockies are starting hot. Luis Robert has 5 SB to lead the majors. That's more impressive when you find out he's only been on base 6 times from hits and walks. Joey Votto probably the star struggling the most early

Pitchers

Real early as one great/terrible start can make or break a guy. Rodon, Andrew Heaney, and Harper's personal favorite Nestor Cortes have been great. Manaea and a the Mets non star trio (Bassitt, Megill, Carrasco) also deserve nods. Mariners reliever Andres Munoz has been all Ks. Holding off for a couple more starts before declaring trouble but these names have yet to throw a quality start and have looked bad while not doing it - Berrios, Corbin, Wheeler, Ohtani, DeSclafini

Friday, April 15, 2022

Missing players! Bad pitchers! Bad players! Missing pitchers!

Nats lost a garbage game. Adon, who is not a major league starter, was pounded and deservedly so. While he was initially in the rotation and Rogers out, one has to think it's the other way around now, and when Anibal returns he'll be down to AAA. Where is Anibal? Hurt his neck and is out... indefinitely. Cavalli isn't ready.  Next up would either be retread Aaron Sanchez or "let's see" with Jackson Tetreault.

They followed Adon with their B Bullpen which should be the L bullpen, am I right??!?

(pause for laughs) 

The Nats don't go deep so if you are losing you probably should throw these guys out there. Don't waste a Doolittle or Cishek or Rainey?!* outing on that.

The hitting was fine. Ruiz keeps on singling and Yadi is making the most of his opportunity so far. Unfortunately for the Nats the CF issue is not clear at all as both Robles AND Thomas aren't hitting. If that's the case you play Robles, but they seem to be mad at Robles for not hitting while for Thomas they are hoping he works out of it.  Thus is where their reputations stand right now.  Meanwhile Escobar isn't hitting which ANYONE WHO FOLLOWS BASEBALL AT ALL COULD HAVE TOLD YOU WOULD HAPPEN.

sigh. 

There was a chance Dee S-G was going to take over in CF if only because he IS hitting but he is... sick. Or something. Davey didn't want to say. COVID? Hungover? Something completely different? We'll see if we get more information about it today.


*I mean until he inevitably blows up

Thursday, April 14, 2022

Series win - Pirates Preview

And you call yourselves Champions. tsk tsk. 

One more series and we start to talk numbers, albeit extremely informally.  

The Nats have a very interesting schedule in that next they play the Pirates for 4, then host the D-backs for 3. Conceivably since these are both bad teams, the Nats could win like 5 of 7 and come out of this 8-6 and like tied for first in the NL East.  This would briefly set off a "Maybe they are actually good" storyline that I would absolutely hate. This would not be a surprise.

Of course the Nationals are also a bad team and on the flip side if the Nats stumble and go 2 of 7 against these guys then they find themselves 5-9 and this long season just feels a lot longer. 

 We can start doing some previews though - 

THE PIRATES

Nutting's investment fund masquerading as a baseball team has played STL and PIT so far and is 2-3.  Lineup wise they've gotten some good performances but it's all early season small sample size stuff. And even then they haven't overwhlemed.  A lot of hits but not a lot of homers and not a lot of walks. It's not a good offense with two good bats (K'Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds) and one decent guy (Ben Gamel).  The most interesting guy is probably DH Michael Chavis who was once thought of highly in the Boston system, reaching AAA at 22, but not doing well since. He might be something. Of course this is 4 bats. The rest are just guys filling spots, even the young guys.

The staff is Jose Quintana trying to find redemption after being mediocre for the Cubs and bombing with the Angels and Giants last year, three Erick Feddes and an actual prospect, albeit an up and down one, in Mitch Keller. The Nats miss Zach Thompson - which is a shame because he's probably the worst of the Feddes - the version that shouldn't be in the majors.. JT Brubaker is the Fedde that is a bad, but if you have to use him you can, number 5.  Bryse Wilson is the Fedde that skirted the Top 100 who relied on not giving up homers and hits to look good in the minors but can't replicate that in the majors. (FWIW - Fedde strikes out more, Wilson has better control).  Worst case there's at least two guys the Nats should be able to pound, probably three. 

Relief wise the Pirates turned former Nat SP failure Wil Crowe into a closer and the immediate, 3 game, returns are great. But as this is his first time here you can't say much. David Bednar got a ROY vote and did look honestly good last year. Roansy Contreras has got a live arm and is expected to be really good but is still green. Chris Stratton is a solid arm.  The rest are guys that couldn't find better jobs elsewhere or are just being tried out. Looks like a pen that can close out the rare late leads the Pirates find themselves with but isn't going to be able to hold anything close mid game.

Even at the Pirates and knowing the Nats are a bad team, not at least splitting against these guys seems impossible. Then again while the Nats have a better offense, I can't say their starting pitching is better and their RP is about the same in the "hey the back end might be pretty good and every thing else might be trash" way.  I think it'll come down to how Pittsburgh hits the Nats starters.  The Nats will score some runs. Will Pittsburgh score enough that they can close it down? 

Anyway - treating this like any season that matters until it doesn't anymore. Let's get that split.

Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Team for Sale!

 I forgot about the bombshell news! This is what happens when you don't actually live in the area of the team you are writing about.  The Nats are for sale!

The post is going to cover this WAY better than I can.  Barry's just completed Q&A is great. So don't come here for news or anything.  If you want a short paragraph summary here goes : 

The Lerners, that group is Ted & Wife, and Kids and Spouses (Mark you know, plus two sisters you may not), said they weren't planning to sell the Nats.  A few years passed. They are selling the Nats. 

The phrasing they've given us is all legal speak and hedging but if you want to parse out some feelings from it this is what I gleam (and Barry and others agree on some points) :

  • The ownership makes decisions as a group but it was explicitly said the "next generation" is ready to step in. So it's likely not everyone agrees with the sale, only enough to outvote the others. 
  • If you were going to guess which person is against the sale Mark makes the most sense, given his role and constant presence. However it could be that the grandchildren want to keep it and the children don't.  We don't really know. 
  • I do think it's really likely Ted is at least at peace with it because man it seems cruel if he wasn't and the children would sell anyway. 
  • Is this why the Nats sold off in 2021? Probably unlikely. Trading Max / Trea, guys with expiring contracts heading into lean years, to rebuild a sparse farm system made sense unless the Nats were willing to go Dodgers, and there is no indication they were
  • Is this why the Nats didn't buy in 2022? You can certainly read it that way. There's a decent argument for getting a SS now with the glut of available guys, setting up the next window.  A Werth like deal. Didn't happen. 
  • It seems likely someone wants money for something but to keep the real estate stuff going... I don't see it. I'm sure the Lerners took a hit real estate wise because of the pandemic. I'm also sure the Lerners are still quite wealthy. Is it possible they need cash now to do something? I guess so, but I don't see where. But I'll admit I'm not a real estate guy.
  • Don't buy any "team value" talk. The value never goes down. Well not never but people have been speculating on value crashes for decades. It's not going down anytime soon enough to force this.
  • The Nats probably won't be sold locally, unless that local buyer is the highest bidder. They want as much as they can get.
  • The Nats won't be moved. Not unless the buyer makes a real compelling argument (re: $$$$$). MLB likes baseball in DC. There are other teams to move. The park is fine. The area is fine. 

Is this bad for the Nats?  My gut thinking is yes. I think it'll be hard for the Nats to make any big commitments while setting up for sale. It's too appealing to a number of buyers to have the team as cheap as possible going in and let them do what they want. If this drags it could very well run into the "gotta sign Soto" time frame and that means you trade Soto.  

Also it's bad because the Lerners were ok. Do I think their complete belief in Rizzo has exacerbated Rizzo's own issues (can't build pitching, too short a manager leash on some too long on others)? Yes. Do I think they are overly cheap when they are not good? Yes. Do I think they are pound wise and penny foolish when they are good? Yes. But a lot of owners are just foolish and a lot more don't even have a pound descriptor because they don't spend money. The Lerners spent money. The Lerners committed to being good when it made sense and stuck with it through peaks and valleys. They committed to the city to some degree. You believed they did want to win. Maybe not as often and as much as you did but they weren't out to bilk a fanbase out of cash for decades. They might not have been great owners but they were good ones. The next ones will just be the richest ones available. Great, good, or  bad ownership type does not come into play. 

This drama will play out for a while so there isn't reason to focus on it until there is actual news. Right now there isn't anything but speculation. I'd say don't get caught up in it but it's not like the season will be compelling.

Why you watch

The Nats are not as good as the Braves. They will likely win 20-30 games fewer than the Braves this season. Yet, last night the Nats pitching executed and their hitting executed and they got lucky and they won going away 11-2. Such is life in a sport when the worst team wins 40% of their games and the best team 60%. 

Rogers pitched well but given that he doesn't miss bats and isn't particularly great with control, he is basically at the mercy of the baseball gods every time out. They will put the ball in play. Will it go at someone or not? When one does go through will it be after the guy I put on with a walk or before? There's no reason to believe this is sustainable UNLESS he can keep the ball in the park at a crazy rate. However, the Nats don't really have better options. Arano and Harvey pitched well. Cesar and Yadi and Franco and Lane went a combined 10-18 with two walks and two doubles and a homer.  Yes, the Nats will win games when that happens. 

Arguably tonight is the first game with any sort of import the Nats will have this year, though it's of the "Huh. Not sure what's going on. We should win this game" variety.  The Braves know they should pick up wins against teams like the Nats, especially at home.  A loss drops them to 2-4, has them no better than splitting the series against DC, and could put them 2.5 behind PHI and in last place depending how the night goes.  None of that REALLY matters. They could be in first place by the weekend. But it doesn't feel right, and the Braves are a team right now that want to feel right given that their iconic player left because they didn't want to pay him. They don't want that to be a thing.

Monday, April 11, 2022

Monday Quickie - Get used to it

The Nats had a weekend that you should come to expect. They lost more than they won and didn't look particularly good doing it. The win helped keep them from being the worst team in the league right now but the future doesn't look bright. 

This time of year is always the toughest.  Unlike Spring, which can be ignored, theses stats matter. But because they are the only stats we have they have an outsized influence on our perceptions.  We say this every year but will repeat. Wait until Memorial Day. That's tough. I won't always follow it myself, but let's try do it. Waiting until Memorial Day gave us the first sense that Josh Bell might be ok for example.  

What to make of stats until then? Impressions like a Monet canvas. Wait... yes he was an Impressionist.  Listen, art isn't my strong suit. 

What impressions do we have so far? 

Keibert Ruiz looks good.  A lot of contact with lower K numbers.  He's hit it hard.  He's also thrown out a guy. 

Josh Bell, Juan Soto, and Nelson Cruz all have homered. If the Nats are going to have an average offense it's coming from these guys doing this. 

But everyone else looks bad. Hernandez a few singles, no walks, 4 Ks in only 16 PA.  Franco one single, no walks, 4 Ks in only 13 PA. Lane Thomas has a walk! But no singles and 4 Ks in only 8 PAs. Robles has nothing but 4Ks in 9 PA. 

I must single Escobar out. One single in 10 PA and 5 Ks. That's a strikeout every other at bat for a guy who doesn't generate any power (45 homers in a 13 season career). I said "wait until Memorial Day" but there's a good chance this guy isn't here then.

The bench Yadi, DSG, Fox, and Adams. 1 single in 16 PA, no walks, 6 Ks. TBF neither Soto nor Cruz are hitting too much either but guys who HAVE hit get more benefit of the doubt.  Certainly one series is not any reason to worry. 

This is kind of what we expected to see right? Maybe Ruiz is good. The offense will run through Soto, Bell and Cruz. The rest of the offense will determine if the Nats are ok or terrible and right now they are not hitting, not hitting for power, not patient, and striking out too much. And it's not just one of them it's all of them.  Bad tidings. Bad tidings. 

Pitching? 

Fedde has a decent start. Which if he didn't have 5 years of stats behind him might get you thinking he could be ok. He's maybe a 5th that's it, but hey I'll take a 5th if he can finally put together a full season of not sucking. Corbin started ok, then struggled. Adon looked bad, but he's not a major league starter. The one you really look at is Gray who did manage not to give up 3 homers (only 1), but got hit around. As a guy the Nats want to fill the middle of the rotation I'll be paying attention to every start of his. 

The pen? It was fine. Doolittle looks right. And a couple other guys (Rainey, Finnegan) looked like they might work somewhere. Where as Arano and Voth did not.  Given the history of Voth I'm fine if the Nats have a short leash with him, though they might not now with Mason Thompson hurt. For relievers though waiting is almost certainly necessary. It's also something we never do. Because when they are bad it matters a ton and is very visible. 

Other NL East teams? Basically they all got off to starts we expected. No point picking apart staffs and batters when they've only faced one team, they have limited stats, AND we didn't even follow them to make impressions. We'll see if the other Mets starters and their relievers are good... or just faced the Nats bats. If the Phillies are going to homer at a crazy rate... or just faced the gutted A's pitching. If the Braves pitching will strike out a ton of guys... or just faced the Reds bats.  If the Marlins continue to be what we thought they'd be - a great pitching team with a terrible offense that the pitching can't cover.

Friday, April 08, 2022

The first loss of many!

Granted that's true for every team but more so of the Nats! 


Quick take :

  • Corbin looked ok. His stuff wasn't great but it was mostly down and mostly inside to righties. With a little luck that got him through 4 scoreless.  I wouldn't expect the same results from the same pitching next time but hopefully we'd see continued improvement.
  • The pen looked terrible - that's what you get having one good arm!  WE WANT CLIPPARD (who is no savior but is better than these jabronies).  If anyone tells you to get excited about a 22/23 year old at the end of Top 100 prospect lists - that was Voth. This is how they usually end up. 
  • Mets lineup doesn't have a big peak but it is long.  The Mesa lineup. Cahna / McNeil / McCann is a solid 7-8-9 and doesn't really give a team a break time. Franco / Escobar / Robles on the other hand...
  • Escobar is getting old and slow in the field but I will admit the man can still do a relay.  Fantastic work there.  
  • Two hits for Ruiz! Homer and walk for Soto! Rest of the team on base 5 times that includes an error! 


Tonight is the Free Apple TV game. Watch Max vs the Nats while Josiah Gray tries not to give up 3 homers.

Thursday, April 07, 2022

Opening Day... I mean Night

Nats game pushed back to 7:00 to avoid the rain. Tickets still available to see Juan Soto and and the Sotettes.

The Nats stink. 

That's just a fact. 

  • Their best starter has a bad shoulder which is usually very bad news, and won't pitch until probably Memorial Day.
  • Their Opening Day pitcher might have been the worst full season starter last year. 
  • Their #2 gives up homers at a prodigious rate, 19 in about a third of a season last year.  
  • Their #3 is a guy they had high hopes for years ago who sticks around now because there is no one better. 
  • Their #4 threw to a 6.62 ERA in 2020 and didn't pitch in the majors last year. 
  • Their starting SS hit to a 67 OPS+ (.257 / .284! / .337!) over his last four years before being driven out of the game. That was in 2018.  He was once a plus defender but is 35 and decidedly not anymore. 
  • Their starting 3B hit .210 / .253 / .355 last year and was released by the worst team in baseball. 
  • Their starting CF has hit .209 / .304 / .302!!! over the past two seasons and was demoted in part because of a bad attitude.
  • Their bullpen features guys that pitched to ERAs of 4.53 (Doolittle) 5.30 (Murphy) 5.34 (Voth) and 7.39 (Rainey). The guys that managed to pitch to better ERAs probably didn't deserve them with FIPs of 4.46 (Espino) 4.52 (Finnegan) and 4.63 (Machado). 
  • Their 5th starter is just a random young 5th starter on a bad team. Their 2B is just an average 2B on a bad team. Their LF is just an average young 3rd/4th OF on a bad team. 

What does this leave that feels both secure and good? A decent 1B in a league lousy with decent 1B. A very good DH.  A solid though unspectacular closer.  A very good C prospect. Probably the best hitter of his generation still only 23.  This is the thin line between bad and OMG they are winning 50 games terrible. 

Of course we know this. This isn't what was agreed to but it was always a possibility if players didn't develop into stars (Kieboom), if injuries happened (Strasburg), if a long term FA contract finally didn't work (Corbin). This set up a team that couldn't be saved by holding onto a player or two. So instead they went and we're left with... this. 

What is there to look forward to then?

  • Juan Soto's quest for an MVP.  He's likely the best hitter in the game. So good that he can win the MVP without being anything more than a ok baserunner and not embarrassing fielder. So good he can win the MVP for a terrible team. He's 23.  He's peaking. This time has come. 
  • How Keibert Ruiz develops. He's also 23. He makes insane contact with about 180 Ks in the equivalent of 3 150 game seasons in the minors. If he can just hit for average he'll be a solid starter. If he can develop patience or power or a little of both he could be a star.
  • Just watch Cruz homer. It's fun. Hopefully this won't be the year he ages. 

What about things to maybe not enjoy but to watch for?

  • Are Strasburg/Corbin are ok. They don't have to both be great, though that would be nice. One though has to be good, the other... let's just say mid-rotation usable. The Nats might have cash to add another pitcher to keep Soto happy. Stras and Corbin filling in two spots from 2 to 4 in the rotation and feeling good for a few years is vital. If neither look good... let's just not think about that. 
  • Josiah Gray. Rushed up to AAA and the majors it's hard to figure what to make of him. His limits do seem to suggest he's both not an ace but definitely a major league pitcher of some sort. Where he falls from 2 to in-and-out 5th will make a big difference for the Nats. 
  • Lane Thomas. Is he something? Probably nothing more than a 4th. But STL is lousy with OF and Thomas did ok in minors and is not old so kick the tires. He seemed more like a 3rd OF with the Nats last year. Maybe you get that for a few years allowing the Nats to put some money elsewhere in the "rebuild to keep Soto" future. 
  • Victor Robles bounces back. Speaking to that effect. Robles was a top notch defender who hit well enough to start. The hope was he'd hit slightly better and the Nats would have a plus player. That didn't happen. He hit worse. If he just gets back to where he was - again the Nats have a decent starter and can put money somewhere else for a couple years.
  • Luis Garcia. The guy should be up in the majors but isn't.  A little overwhelmed playing for the Nats last year he raked in AAA. But it was less than 40 games, so we need to see him do it again. That would show you're at least a starter in the majors for 2023.

In the minors 

  • Cavalli, Rutledge, Henry.  All look like they'll be ready for some major league time over the next two years. Can someone take a step up to look like a potential top of the rotation guy? How many will look like good rotation starters - like better than Fedde/Ross looked? 
  • House development. SS of the future? 3B of the future? The future is coming quick for a team looking to keep Soto here beyond 2024 so the faster you can develop the better.
  • Who do the Nats draft with their high pick?  

The Nats have a ton of holes and question marks looking to that key year of 2024. All the infield, 2/3rd the OF, the entire rotation.  What they desperately need isn't minor league development in all those places or good play this year.  What they need are answers. Enough answers for 2024 that they can figure out solutions for the remaining questions. They need a rotation to come together that looks at least 3 deep from 1-4. (Finding 5 is a perennial issue for every team) They need and OF and a couple IFs to look decent so they know what they need to target - corner OF or CF? SS or 3B? They need to come out of this year with a good idea on where the money will go before 2023 and 2024 to keep Juan Soto here. Because keeping Juan Soto is ultimately THE answer for being competitive in the near future

Wednesday, April 06, 2022

NL East

About now is usually when I would go through the predictions on line and tell you how many like the Nats for a division title or a WS appearance.  I don't think that's necessary.  Yesterday I put the team at 69 wins and the word on the street is everyone feels about the same. This is not a playoff contending team.  The left side of the IF being Maikel Franco and Alcides Escobar should have told you. 

But what about the rest of the NL East? Where does the Nats 69 fit in? Worst in the division? Or do they sneak into 4th? 

Braves / Mets / Phillies

Each of these teams made major moves and how they finish is up in the air.  

The defending champs Braves are still without Acuna (until later in April) and lost their heart and soul in Freddie Freeman.  Free swinging temporary power threat Jorge Soler also moved on. But Freeman was replaced by almost as good Olson and Acuna should bounce back and play more than last season (82 games).  Chances are the offense stays pretty stable. The pitching staff is pretty much as is.  The bullpen with dominant set-up man Luke Jackson out at least half the season, has added dominant closer Kenley Jackson. All in all expect a similar result to last year except not unlucky. 90-95ish wins. 

The Mets made the splashiest moves adding Max and Chris Bassitt to their rotation. deGrom is out for at least a couple months, but he missed half of last year so it's a push if he comes back as dominant. Stroman is gone and had a very nice year but expectations would be for Max to at least match that. Bassitt is better than the other guys who ended up starting. It's at least better even with deGrom hurt. If Carrasco is any good it could be dominant. The bullpen lost the surprisingly dominant Loup to FA. They brought in a couple of arms to replace him but that's a season that doesn't get replicated. It's a push there at best. At the plate Villar is replaced by Eduardo Escobar, maybe a slight improvement and Conforto is out for Cahna, who isn't much better production wise but gives the impatient Mets a guy who will take a walk. The big move is Marte coming in who will bump up production. This may get undone though by a questionable DH pairing of Cano and Dom Smith. Maybe these guys too old to be in the field become great DHs.  Maybe these guys who look meh at the plate at best stay that way.  The key to this team getting a lot better was deGrom and Max for 40% of the starts. With deGrom hurt the improvement here is minimal - more like a 500+ team. But like a flipside Nats I think they have a lot better chance to be much better than much worse. These bats could have some very good years and if a few line up, watch out. Like a 79-93 range but the average being around 83. 

The Phillies couldn't fix their main problem - a middling rotation and pen with no reliable arms - so they doubled down on what was their strength - a solid offense. Out is great but aging Cutch.  In is the AS type Nick Castellanos. In is last year's hotness Kyle Schwarber.  That's a lot of Ks but also they could have 4 guys hit 30 homers. Plus Didi and Segura are contact guys to average things out. The offense should be up at the top of the league fighting for 2nd behind the Dodgers. The rotation is better than last year - if only because last year was relying on a 4 and 5 that probably shouldn't have been in the league.  Gibson is solid. Suarez... who knows but it'll be hard to be worse than Velasquez/Moore. The pen brought in Familia, Hand, and Knebel who are all "could be good, could be bad" guys. It doesn't set up for major improvement although that's possible.  The Phillies should be better by a few games. Something like 84/85 maybe better if Nola is really good or the bullpen clicks (but probably not) 

The Marlins?  They are all about young player improvement.  Can the rotation mature even more?  If so they could have a dominant Top 3 and maybe a 1-5 that challenges for best in the league. If that's the case they could compete. If not, the bullpen was surprisingly good last year. With no big moves it's hard to see it get any better. Their big issue was scoring runs and they did add Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler but they replace the very good Marte and decent Duvall/Dickerson mix. That's not a big jump Wendle is in, the underrated Anderson is out. It's an improvement but again not much.  The offense is likely to struggles unless the young guys, Chisolm, Sanchez, really break out. A better team with maybe real movement to like 77/78 wins but they need that star bat to make that next move. 

This would put the NL East in my mind at 

ATL 93

PHI 85

NYM 83

MIA 77

WSH 69 

I think ATL, MIA and WSH are pretty set (it's sports. very little is certain) Mets/Phillies could easily flip flop.


Tuesday, April 05, 2022

Baseball is Coming - My win prediction

And like Winter is Coming in Game of Thrones it portends doom for some*. Like Nats fans!

A couple weeks ago I put in how I thought the Nats might get to the very edge of contention.  It was a non-crazy but everything goes right plan that was helped into play by the expanded playoffs.  Then immediately something went wrong - Strasburg was not ready for a full season - and the plan fell apart.  Oh well.  It's not like anyone here is planning to watch the Nats in the playoffs this October. 

But that begs the question - how do I think the Nats do this year? When I floated the numbers out there I started with the Nats as a 65 win team. We'll start from there

Strasburg obviously isn't peak Stras. He's probably not even half that either in production or number of starts. I'll say he's worth 2 wins this year.  Can Corbin be better? Yes. Around 2017?  Eh, let's cut the difference and say 2 wins too. That's a low bar for someone expected to throw 180 IP. Only three pitchers last year who threw 170IP didn't hit that level - Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Lyles, and yes Corbin. Does Max get replaced by someone ok? Probably not. Let's say they cobble one win together (and the rest of the rotation is about the same).  That gets the Nats to 70.  

Cruz gets you that 1.5 bump over other DHs. Keibert is respectable but not ROY level - another 1.5.  The other replacements are close to a wash 0.5 wins. The bullpen is better but only by the randomness of luck. The talent still stinks. So... 74 wins?  Feels high. 

I said last year's team was a unlucky 75 win bunch. Is this team really only 1 game worse? Taking a look I probably undersold the losses in terms of who left in trying to get the Nats in, but only by a couple games at most. 72 wins? 

Pitching wise it's easy to see what's going on. Yes Max is gone, but he was gone 1/3 of last year too.  Strasburg wasn't here either.  His return - I'm assuming for a decent amount of starts and doing ok, would cover part of Max's departure. Corbin was unusually bad. I'm assuming he's a decent pitcher. That makes up the rest. The rest of the rotation is a mess but it was a mess last year.  The bullpen is trash but the pen was trash last year. It's pretty even.

Offensively the team loses Trea, Schwarber's extremely big burst, Gomes, Harrison and Zim.  Ruiz should cover Gomes. Cruz's advantage over the typical DH gets you back the Schwarber Month of Crushing Awesomeness. Cesar isn't bad. I'm assuming Kieboom, who hurt the team a lot, won't play that much again if he's that bad. I'm assuming Robles isn't a detriment like last year.  Those things kind of make-up Harrison and Zim so really it's only a Trea loss.

I should probably factor in some D issues and certainly worse baserunning.  71 wins? 

It doesn't make much sense but you have to take into account two things. 

  1. The Nats were unlucky last year in closer games and "sequencing"**. If that's even they finish with 75 wins.
  2. The Nats had some unusually bad performances and injury issues and those are no guarantee to be repeated. Kieboom, Robles, Corbin, Strasburg? They won't do that again (probably)

OK looking at it while there wasn't standout good luck things there probably were a bunch of little good lucks that also won't be repeated. Escobar and Barrera and Riley Adams.  Fine.  I'll go another game down. 70 wins. But that's as far as I can take it without completely going on emotion. 

70 wins

Can they do better? with the guys they are putting out there not much.  Ruiz could do something special. I guess Thomas can be decent. Gray.  They could find themselves in the mid 70s in wins. 

Can they do worse? Oh God yes. 3/4 of the IF could give you less than nothing. Robles and Corbin could be far closer to 2021 than I'm assuming (they certainly looked like it in the Spring). Cruz is ancient and someone is going to catch his bad year. Thomas could bust (I suppose Ruiz could too but I like that guy).  Strasburg could never come back or come back not right. And of course an injury to Soto (or Cruz or Bell) and the offense is non-existant. Plus anyone that's ok proably goes at the trade deadline. Ok wait - didn't think about that. Let's take another game away for the inevitable trade of Cruz and whatever vets are ok in the pen or MI. 69 wins. But more importantly, there's real bust potential here for 100+ losses.

69 wins. 

People hail Davey as a genius for basically doing nothing but watching luck even out in front of him. I get angry. The team doesn't look all that better going forward up here and what will matter is what's going on in the minors. How's Cavalli look? House? Expect a long year.

*I think.  I didn't watch the show.  Fantasy isn't my thing, even if you throw in boobs and blood. 

**think of it as "when you get your hits" Part of that is luck - that the balls find holes all in the same inning rather than spread out.

Monday, April 04, 2022

Monday Quickie - Baseball this week!

 The Ntas roster continues to round into final shape including...

  • Stevenson got outrighted. This is because he is out of options and the Nats preferred Yadi Hernandez, who might DH here and there, up first. There were no particularly promising other options so Stevenson came back and will be in the minors to start.
  • Luis Garcia going to minor league camp.  We talked about this before but there isn't a GOOD reason for this.  There's a poor one involving trying to see if Cesar Hernandez can be decent enough to turn into a 21 yo former 4th round HS draftee converting himself into a reliever with some conflicting stats in Low A.  Along with him is Cavalli who got a chance to force the issue in the Spring, but didn't.  That move is fine. 
  • Ol' Friend Clip will also start in the minors to throw some more. Barrera will be there too and Parra, which why? The guy has got nothing left but nostalgia. 
  • The Barrera move leaves Riley Adams back-up C (instead of getting ABs in AAA - honestly not sure which is best)
  • Robles is unburied (in part by necessity - I mean you are forcing someone else into this role if not him) and will play CF and avoided arbitration by signing a deal which I'm sure was unrelated. Lane Thomas, current great crazy Nat hope*, will be in LF. 
  • Ehire Adrianza, back-up extraordinaire got hurt (quad), Lucious Fox might be the temporary replacement.
  • Dee Strange-Gordon made the team as a MI/OF guy with a hot spring.  SPRING TRAINING STATS MEAN NOTHING. But I guess it's slightly better than picking at random which is kind of what you would be doing with this bunch of cast-offs.
  • For the rotation - Corbin will start Opening Day. Fedde has a slight injury scare but seems on target to start as expected. Gray is going to start. Is any of this good news?
  • Carter Kieboom still out, not close, for those that care. 
  • Stras is still rounding into shape. With deGrom and Max hurting, Mike Soroka out and Sixto Sanchez returning from injury the NL East has a dominant championship rotation on the IL. 

The not mentioned yet depth chart question marks that have been all but officially answered :

  • Cesar Hernandez IS going to start at 2B. Alcides Escobar at SS. Maikel Franco will be 3B
  • Anibal Sanchez is the rotation fill-in guy 
  • Doolittle will be in the pen.


*meaning a guy with a little bit of success Nats fans are thinking "Hmmmm, maybe we got something here" where you almost certainly don't.

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Clippard Back, Robles buried, Garcia shipped down

 Some quick notes 

Old Friend Tyler Clippard has been brought back to DC.  The season is pretty clearly focused on turning some veterans into organizational depth (as we'll talk about in a few paragraphs) so this shouldn't be surprising. What is surprising is how little Nats fans think of Clippard. 

Clippard leads all Nats in games pitched with 414. (60 more than 2nd place Storen and the next guy Burnett is 100 games fewer).  His ERA for the Nats was 2.68. ERA+ 148. WHIP 1.047.  There's a pretty strong argument to be made he's the best reliever in Nationals history. Hell, I've made the argument he might be the greatest middle reliever in baseball history (It's not a good argument.  He's up there but there are a few guys who last I looked were definitely better) And yet fans treat him like he was a trash reliever.  I don't get it. 

Outside of a 2017 flop (which you should be happy with - he was garbage for the Astros and my Yankees) he's been better than average every year since 2008.  He's good. HE'S GOOD.  Or at least he has been.  The question now if age has finally caught up with him. He's 37. Last year he was hurt and admittedly more lucky that good. He's losing the ability to miss bats and that could cause trouble.  Still if it was the injury and that's cleared up, the Nats have a good arm to thow 60-70 innings which they'll need because their rotation is trash.  It's a smart gamble.


While pretty much every starter is in "every day" mode, one player who isn't is Robles. Yesterday Dee Strange-Gordon got ABs in CF. Robles was already a question coming in. He didn't have a good year last year and the Nats management seemed to question his desire to be the best player he could be. Now he's in an arbitration battle with the Nats.  For most teams that's inconsequential. For the Nats... well history isn't great about this.  I said before only Bell and Soto mattered for arbitration but what I meant was they are the only ones that HAVE to play so you'd know if the Nats were screwing with them if they didn't settle and things looked funny.  For a guy like Robles is it his attitude? His play (He's also hitting poorly in Spring but as you know SPRING TRAINING STATS DON'T MATTER*)? Or retribution? Or more likely some combination of all three? 

Anyway Robles in CF matters because he can be here cheaply for another two years beyond this one and outside of last year even when he was a below average hitter he was a worthwhile start. They need him to get right and should want him to do so and I'm not 100% sure they do at this point. 


Another guy who should be playing everyday in the majors but isn't is Luis Garcia.  Garcia rocked AAA last year and has done everything he can with the bat in the minors to show he should be in the majors. His half-year stint last year wasn't overly impressive but as we've talked about before he's only 21 (22 in May) and should be given at least another full year if not two to see if he can round that bat up to at least average.  His fielding wasn't great at SS so they seem resigned to move him to 2B but the Nats don't have a star in either position so it's not like he's taking up anyone's rightful spot. 

It COULD be said he's going down to AAA to work on 2B then... but that's not what they are saying. They say they could still play him at SS. So what is this about?  

The immediate take is service time manipulation but the Nats have never been shy about playing guys in the majors when they should be in the majors. I just don't see that being the reason. Instead I think it's about the goal for the season.  I think they want to restock the minors and to do that they want to play as many vets as they can. But not GOOD vets for the most part. They don't want a good record. Just vets someone would trade a lottery ticket for so the Nats can grab a half-dozen of them and get one major leaguer out of it. That's the goal. And Garcia playing everyday does nothing toward that goal. At least that's how I see it, because there isn't any other reason Cesar Hernandez should be playing instead of him. 


*He's hitting .083 but with only 1 K.  He's putting the ball in play.

Thursday, March 24, 2022

Season Over

 Two posts ago I pondered how the Nats could actually be playoff competitive this year.  While involving luck it didn't involve anything crazy. It did however hinge on Strasburg pitching the majority of the season and being his usual self. This is unlikely. 

Earlier this Spring Stras noted he'd likely take his usual time getting back into form. That would be the roughly 6 week time frame from pitchers and catcher to Opening Day. This should seemingly be unecessary. Any smart player would be winding up to pitch as if Opening Day would happen anyway, but whatever. Players could report to Spring Training as early as March 11, making 6 weeks from that April 22nd.  Given the week push back of Opening Day that would mean missing only 16 games or about 3 starts. Fiddling conservatively you could say "ready last week in April" and that's right before a long road trip so if we were being VERY careful the Nats could hold him back until after that. He'd miss 30 games in that case, being ready for the second Mets homestand May 10th-12th.  Worst case that should still put Stras in line for 27ish starts. 

Yesterday Davey noted they were hoping to get 20-25 starts from Strasburg.  That's not late April.  That's not early May.  Best case would carve out another 2 starts and 10 games - starting him either around the 20th of May (away series in Milwaukee) or the following home set starting with the Dodgers. Worst case and it's another 35 games out bringing him back smack dab in the middle of June in a long homestand against the Braves or Phillies. 

The Nats cannot compete without Strasburg. 

It looks like the Nats will be without Strasburg for 20% to 33% of the season right now. 

It looks like the Nats cannot compete. 

This kind of back tracking is completely in line with how the Nats have played injuries in the past. Stras will be fine for Opening Day, no a few weeks later, no a couple months in... that's par for course. What I'm wondering is how much longer will it be than that? July 4th? All-Star Break? Labor Day??

Strasburg's surgery was a big one. It was expected he would take time to recover. It was (is) possible he wouldn't recover at all. There was no reason to spin it to fans. We get it. And yet here we are. Back in the same place we've been before. Listening to the the team tell us there isn't anything wrong only learning how bad things are when it's painfully apparent. At this point we can only take say... Memorial Day as a best case deadline from a team who's looking to paint the rosiest picture possible. Given that you can also paint the Nats out of the playoffs.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Nats "Come Back" tour 2021

Note it's not a "comeback" tour.  The Nats aren't coming back to anything. But some former Nats are coming back to the team. Doolittle! Parra! Why not make it complete and grab any former Nats out there? Turns out there are just too many to do that! But you can pick and choose some of the better ones. 

CATCHERS

Lobaton, Ramos, and Lucroy  - Yep the only available catchers are ALL former Nats.  Lucroy was the best last year in EXTREMELY limited at bats. Lobaton was terrible, as you can imagine being he was almost out of baseball. Ramos has aged to the point he can't keep his average up and can't generate enough power to make up for that. PASS PASS PASS

FIRST BASEMEN

Matt Adams - the only available first baseman is also a former Nat... huh.  He's been flat bad for three years now which includes his last year with the Nats.  The Nats have Bell and don't need a back-up who bats from the same side of the plate, even if he was ok, which he's not. PASS

SECOND BASEMEN 

No Former Nats! (Drury should find a place somewhere. Lowrie maybe - he's old. Sogard and Panik are trash) 

SHORTSTOPS

Jordy Mercer - I mean he's not any worse than what is here. But what is here is already here. PASS (the non-Nats Freddy Galvis is nothing special but should find a home somewhere on someone's bench.  He'd possibly be better than what the Nats have! But also not that much better that I'd care to sign him) 

THIRD BASEMEN

Asdrubal Cabrera, Starlin Castro - PAAAAASSSSS on Castro. Asdrubal did not have a good year last year but it was the first time that's happened. Maybe it's age or maybe it's a blip.  Either way with Kieboom out the Nats could use a guy and this is a guy. A good one. SIGN (Culberson is the other guy and like Galvis - meh - probably ends up on a bench) 

OUTFIELDERS

Brian Goodwin! - You know... I think you can make this case.  I mean the Nats are what? Soto then... Robles if he gets his head on straight and Lane Thomas because he had a good two months last year?  Yadi Hernandez? Donovan Casey?  It's not a great signing but this is about the COME BACK tour!  I think this can be justified  SIGN

Adam Eaton - no power, no average, can't walk enough to make up for that. OK in the corner I guess but when you hit like Stevenson you gotta field better than him. Eaton doesn't. PASS

At this point there are too many to go over all available - Conforto is still out there and is the best. Dickerson and Pham are decent players

DESIGNATED HITTERS

No former Nats - also Nats really don't need one. 

STARTING PITCHERS

No former Nats - Shame bc Nats really do need one.  Only three guys out there could be said to do more than fill space. Brett Anderson, who'd be a decent 3/4/5 depending. Johnny Cueto who is not quite done and would be a fun vet guy to have around, and maaaybe Drew Smyly who occasionally looks ok so trying him as a 5th wouldn't be necessarily giving up to fill space.  I'd like to see Cueto here. I like Cueto

RELIEF PITCHERS

Clippard, Holland, Kintzler, Petit, Rosenthal, Strickland, Abad, Detwiler - Clippard still gets results, even if last year was a little lucky, the previous two were not. He was just good. Petit is solid - basically his Nats year was his worst. Strickland is good? And very importantly we thought he'd come in here and be a big dumb baby and he wasn't.  Still... his time with the Nats was pretty awful.  Makes it hard to want him back even if he was ok last year. Rest are trash So in conclusion SIGN PASS PASS SIGN PASS PASS PASS PASS

Give it up for your returning 2022 Nats Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Goodwin, Tyler Clippard and Yusmeiro Petit!

Monday, March 21, 2022

Monday Quickie - Kie-Bust

Carter Kieboom is done. 

Ok, that's hyperbole.  He's not done for his career, or the season, or even April maybe. But he is hurt and that means he won't start Opening Day. He might not have anyway but now it's sure.

Technically the Nats have a boatload of guys in camp that could replace him. Adrianza, Urena, Fox, Hernandez, Strange-Gordon, Sanchez, Franco, Noll, Cluff, Young... but they are only seriously considering Maikel Franco, Ehire Adrianza, and maybe Richard Ureña.  Personally I feel Hernandez makes more sense, with Garcia everyday at 2B, but the plan seems to be Hernandez at 2B, Escobar at SS, Kieboom at 3B, Garcia in AAA until he seems more ready. 

Kieboom himself.. man what happened? 

He was a low first round draft pick in 2016 (some, like me, believed the Nats wanted him so much they took his brother to sweeten the signing pot).  His progression seemed to be going great. 

2016 :  18 : Decent stats with nice power in Rookie League

2017 : 19 :  Was hitting great for Hagerstown and looked to be a shoe-in for High A Potomac, but hurt his hammy and had to finish the season rehabbing through the low minors back to A ball

2018 : 20 : Brought up to High A anyway, hit great there, and decent in AA really his first real struggle as he wasn't hitting for the power he had. Still 20 in AA holding your own is great so the Nats...

2019 : 21 : ... moved him the AAA anyway and he thrived. He got a brief call-up in the majors and looked overwhelmed - he'd hit .128 in 43 PA and strike out a crazy 16 times.  But he was 21!  The Nats took him off the table for trades (rumors abounded but nothing clearly specific) He did seem to wear down a bit at the end of the year in AAA - the power kind of went again, but 2020 was going to be his year to shine. Rendon would leave and he'd step in, not unlike Soto steppin in for Bryce.

2020 : 22 : Pandemic year kept him from playing until July but he got his chance and unlike every other time he failed. Miserably. Not only did he not hit (.202 / .344 / .212), but he looked bad across the board, like he didn't know what he was doing on the field, on the basepaths.  He didn't look like a guy struggling, he looked like he didn't belong at all.  The Nats sort of floated the idea that they'd listen to offers but that year was so bad and the turn around for the Nats from "UNTOUCHABLE" to "make us an offer" so quick, no one bit with anything good.

2021 : 23 : New year fresh start! The Nats would start him back in AAA, let him get his legs under him then get him back up. But the plan didn't work.  He scuffled for two months in AAA playing mediocre ball. They called him up around the trade deadline but again - nothing came of it and despite an immediate fast start (11 hits and 2 homers in his first 11 games) he'd end up much like 2021, maybe not as bad in the field but not close to a major leaguer

What to do now?  He's not old (24 pretty much all year) and he's not expensive (aribtration a couple years away, FA after 2027) so they can hang onto him. And given that he's getting almost zero interest they might have no choice. He needs to play. If he does well then the Nats have a difficult decision - do they trust the development through AAA and what they see to double down on him as a 2023-2026 cheap starter? Even if he's average it's worth it. Or do they trade him while they can, getting something out of a guy who has spent basically every moment of the past 3 years when in the majors looking like he should be anywhere else?  Development matters but everyone has a ceiling and part of the game is finding it.

It'd honestly be easier if he failed. Package him up for whatever and let someone else try to fix him. It probably isn't going to work here. You might even get a lottery ticket back given Kieboom has a lot of control left. 

For now it doesn't matter because he won't play right away. But he will and when he does if he can do well the Nats will face a tough call.

Friday, March 18, 2022

Spin it, let's begin it

So... could the Nats make the playoffs? 

This is a transition season for the Nats. After two years of trying to keep the window open using chewing gum and bailing wire and failing miserably, the Nats are accepting they won't be competitive this year. But just because you accept it doesn't mean it will happen.  Can we work out a way that the Nats will be in the hunt for the playoffs this year? Of course we can! I can make the Pirates contenders if I best case scenario everyone on the team. A better question is : how crazy does that work have to be?

Let's start with the biggest factor in the Nats favor.  They expanded the playoffs. It's likely that teams in the 83-85 range will make the playoffs, so if the Nats can break .500 they have a shot.  How far are they away from .500?

 While the Nats only won 65 games last year they were a better team than that.  They pythag numbers (runs scored and runs allowed) pegged them at something more like 71 wins and the 2nd and 3rd order wins (trying to peel even more luck away) put them around 77-78.  This isn't wishful thinking. The offense had the best BA and OBP in the NL and the 5th best slugging. They should have scored more runs. They lost more games by 2 (12-19) and 3 (8-18) runs that one would think. They should have won more with the runs they did score. 

So let's say this is true. Last year's team was a 75 win team that got pretty damn unlucky. They only need to get 6 wins better to do it!  

But wait!  That can't be the starting point though.  They lost Max. And Trea. And Yan and Josh and Schwarber and Zimm and Daniel Hudson. That's lets see... carry the one... factor in the wind... like 10 wins, let's say.  Replace them with blank slates and you have a 65 win team. Can they make it from there to 81? 

Let's make Strasburg, who gave the Nats nothing last year, around peak Stras.  That's 5 wins himself. 70 wins. Corbin is somewhere around his useful 2017 level. That's 3 more.  Bingo bango 73 wins. The guys that replace all those won't be nothings... let's replace Max with a 1.5 win guy... 74.5. Gomes with a ROY type Ruiz, let's say 2.5 wins... 77.  The other guys... welll they manage not to hurt 1 win 78 total.  We're getting close.  

Cruz you say! Well yes, we could in theory get 3 wins just from Cruz BUT everyone is getting a Cruz in the NL. Well not a Cruz but a DH. So that will effect the relative wins for everyone.  I'll say Cruz gives the Nats a good season, 3 wins, and is about 1.5 wins better than the average DH... 79.5.   Hell from here you can "maybe the pen is a little better" the rest of the way.  You could probably do that and add 2-3 wins. We're there!  The Nats have ~82 wins!  Nothing crazy! We didn't ask for Soto's best year ever or Josiah Gray to be a ROY candidate or anything! 

Does the NL East getting better matter?  Probably not. The Nats tanked against the league last year going a combined 19-38 against the Braves, Mets and Phillies combined. It would hard to do worse even if their improvement doesn't track with the rest of the division.  AL Opponent?  It is the AL West which is not super strong, Angels & Rangers could be better, Mariners should be less lucky and A's are tanking. But the Nats did a surprisingly decent 10-10 against the AL East last year that was 4 teams deep with 90 wins teams. They probably won't improve on that. 

Nope if everything goes right - just right not crazy - the Nats could be good enough to challenge for a playoff spot.  The bottom of the playoffs sure but it's there. The division?  Probably not. The Braves were a better team than their 88 and haven't made themselves worse. The Mets should have been around .500 and could be much better. The Phillies.... well they could be better than that 82 wins too. Chances of ALL these guys failing in a way that the Nats catch them would be the same as the chances we find another 5 wins for the Nats... unlikely. Could a huge signing (Correa) or a couple smart not huge signings do it? It's possible I guess. I think it would still take at least the Braves falling off.  

But playoffs? Maaaybe. It basically does mean there can't be disappointments.  Bell can't be close to average. Ross can't be missing all year and have Sanchez bomb. Ruiz can't have growing pains. The pen can't be below average. There also can't be fall-offs from some better-case scenarios.  Strasburg can't just be Strasburg for 20 starts, it needs to be close to 30. Corbin can't be usable, he needs to be good. Soto can't be only All-Star level, he has to challenge for an MVP.

But... could the Nats make the playoffs?

Crazier things have happened.*

*Ed note - I do not think they will make the playoffs

Thursday, March 17, 2022

More moves - but not much in the NL East

The big NL East move... well I guess the big one is Olson signing long-term, which cemented the Braves as a "win-now but long-term" team I pegged them as yesterday. Acuna, Albies, and Olson are now all in ATL forever. None of the young pitchers are up for FA until after 2024. This isn't a death knell for the rest of the NL East. The Braves weren't THAT good last year, rather they were good enough and got hot at the right time (these things happen), so without improvement they are beatable the next couple years.  BUT I'll add they are young enough in a lot of places that that may happen. They also should have money to supplement what they do have. It COULD be a death knell. 

Of course the Mets are trying to force the issue for the next couple of years and the Phillies did something! They signed Kyle Schwarber to a 4 yr 79 million deal. That's a lot! Schwarber might be worth it - the tear he went on last year was crazy but everyone has loved him for years as a pure hitter. While he has tried to improve on D, he feels more like a natural DH and it might just keep him hitting at that highest level.  He also might NOT be worth it but given his history he'd still be giving the Phillies something at the plate. It probably helps last year's Nats hitting coach, Kevin Long, is now on the Phillies. Still they need rotation help and bullpen help and probably another OF... They are a clear third here. 

Rizzo re-signed with the Yankees, Chapman was traded to the Blue Jays, Bryant signed with the Rockies, Freeman ended up with the Dodgers, Giants signed Boyd and Pederson, Greinke went back to the Royals, Cutch is on the Brewers now... it's a lot. But a lot that doesn't directly affect the Nats unless you care about draft picks.

Who's left? Correa, Story, Castellanos, Conforto, Villar, Jansen, Tepara, Danny Duffy.

As far as the NL East goes it's dead quiet when it comes to any of these players. It would be wise of the Phillies to grab BOTH those reliever. Seems far more likely they'll try to get the injured middling pitcher who managed a surprising good stretch Duffy on the cheap. A Matt Moore move. 

Could the Nats be in on any of these?  Probably not. Any reliever would work but they aren't giving out the multi-year deals these guys are looking for. Correa would make sense - the Nats don't have a SS close to ready. Brady House is there but he is far down there so who knows if when and at what position he ends up. Correa could be the guy for Soto to look at and believe the Nats are serious about competing and stay.  But it'd still be a surprise bc if Correa isn't getting the money (which is like at least 300 mill) you figure he'd go back home. No, unless one of these guys wants to sign a 1 yr challenge deal (Story?) I can't see it happening.

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Tuesday - Doolittle and the NL East

The Nats didn't stop signing people, yesterday bringing in old friend Sean Doolittle. Like a lot of Nats relievers (Clippard, Storen, Soriano, Treinen, Kelley) people tend to forget the good and remember the bad. I don't know why I guess a reliever that isn't outright dominant is like a good umpire - you don't notice them. But Doolittle was good for the Nats more than he was bad.  He excelled for the remainder of the season he was traded over (2017), the complete next season, and through nearly mid-August of the Championship year. But the Nats bullpen was ridden extremely hard that season and Doolittle broke in the dog days of 2019. He managed to come back to throw some decent innings but if possible the Nats kept him out of important situations.  The exception being holding down the fort at the end of Game 1 of the World Series after Hudson, himself stretched into a second inning, had given up a run and left a man on second, with two outs in the eighth. 

Anyway Doolittle tried unsuccessfully to get right in the pandemic year then signed with Cincinnati and pitched middling until he was waived, where he was snatched up by the Mariners to do the same.  He is still very good against LHB but the "No LOOGYs" rule means the opportunities to use that to your advantage are limited. He could fit into this pen, but that's more telling of this pen than of Doolittle's potential to be good again. 

 

As pointed out yesterday the Nats also brought in Aaron Sanchez a former highly touted arm who broke, then stunk, then got hurt again, then pitched a little for the Giants with good results then got hurt again. The guy is not an injury risk, he's an injury certainty. But maybe he can give the Nats a month or two of better 4/5 starting then they are looking at now. Maybe. Look the staff is a mess. 


The rest of the NL East has not exactly stayed quiet post-lockout, either.  Lets take a look at the competition. 

Braves - The Braves traded for Matt Olson who had a little break out season after flirting with excellence for several seasons. This means Freddie Freeman is out (and likely in LA but we'll see).  What's the trade off there? Olson had been a better fielder - legit gold glove material - though seemed a little off last year. You don't judge D by one year though so I'd assume if he isn't near best he's still very good. Freeman is starting to age into being bad, though isn't quite there yet. At the plate... well it depends on how much you believe last year.  If you buy into it Olson would be just as patient as Freddie while showing more power which makes up for the fact Freddie is a better pure hitter.  If you don't buy into it Olson is a little worse hitter and a little less patient and Freddie very likely to outhit him. 

Of course the second biggest thing is Olson is 3-4 years younger than Freeman meaning he's likely to maintain being what he is vs Freeman who's likely to slip a little. At worst the Braves got an equal player in terms of production. The biggest thing is Olson is far cheaper probably doing this at half the cost of Freeman with no 35+ years hanging out there as would for Freeman on another deal. 

The Braves gave up a bunch of decent prospects for this haul.  Cristian Pache (23) everyone was once very high on and is going to be in the majors. The question is as a super 4th OF because of his D and base running or a very good everyday player. Shea Langeliers (24) is college guy who looks good in limited games and is very likely to be a major league catcher in the next year or two. Ryan Cusick (22) was the Braves #1 pick last year with fantastic swing and miss stuff (but control issues). Joey Estes (20) is another live arm who's biggest weakness (too many fly balls) plays well in Oakland. It's a haul that empties out the Braves system and paints them as a win now team, albeit that NOW period stretches probably 3-5 years given their relative youth.

Mets -  The Mets traded for Chirs Bassit who you may remember as the Oakland pitcher who got hit in the face last year. He has always been pretty good but in the past couple years matured into something even better, as he seems to be learning how to optimally pitch. At 33 he's not in NY for the long haul but he's an EXTREMELY good #3.  The prospects given up were fine but nothing like the Braves haul, as to be expected for a guy Bassit's age with one year left.

The Mets also brought in Adam Ottavino who had surprised in Colorado but hadn't been great in NY or Boston outside of a little luck.  He is still a decent arm in the pen and if you can keep him facing primarily righties, maybe even good.

Phillies - They got Aaron Barrett! Barrett if you somehow forgot is the Nats guy who looked real good in 2014 into 2015 but then his arm "broke" and he needed Tommy John and then after rehabbing that his arm BROKE (no quotes) and he needed a full year to get back from that. He persevered and did it.  Unfortunately his very limited major league stints were terrible and the Nats couldn't bring themselves to give him another shot in 2021 despite good AAA stats. The Phillies will try and given their pen that makes sense - of course same for the Nats! What were they thinking?

They also signed Jeurys Familia who is in theory decent but always seems to be a problem. If you are a Phillies fan reading this last year did look a lot more like his better seasons with some bad luck HR wise. If you are not a Phillies fan, he got hit more and gave up more homers last year so if the Ks go back down he could be toast. Seems like a Phillies reliever to me.

And they signed Brad Hand. Back to the very first sentence of this post Brad Hand was actually good for the Nats, until he wasn't and then he was very quickly very bad and he went to the Jays and kept being that bad. But after the Jays kicked him out he ended up on the Mets and seemed ok again. Just one of those years? If so the Phillies could have a great arm for relatively cheap. But who wants to bet on the Phillies pen?

finally they brought back Odubel Herrera who is just a guy. If he's their worst every day player that's pretty good, but he's usually not.

Marlins - the Marlins have done nothing with suggests the rumors that Jeter left because they weren't going to try to supplement an exciting young pitching staff with the offense it needs is probably true. But hey, maybe Correa signs there today! 


The Nats are better than they were pre-lockout but it's not in a vacuum. Braves aren't better today BUT aren't worse, they are better probably for 2023 and their fortunes this eyar mostly rely on how good Acuna is when he returns (Likely in May).  The Mets are better than they were pre-lockout and they were already better with Max. And the Phillies, well they are at least doing something, throw enough junk at a pen and one year it'll work (rotation still needs work). The Nats might have popped back past the Marlins for 4th but beyond that well it depends on Strasburg. He's supposed to throw today. Let's see how he looks

Monday, March 14, 2022

Monday Quickie - STUFF! Lots of it!

 The shortened Spring was going to give us a flurry of moves and even a team like the Nats, presumably out of it and rebuilding, would be involved in someway.  They haven't disappointed making one of the biggest signings so far (granted there have been very few BIG signings post lockout). Let's review what they did


Steve Cishek - Nats signed this submarining righty reliever to a 1/1.75M deal. They NEED relievers so this is no surprise. Cishek is mostly good? Probably? His ERA always seems better than his FIP which is good because his 3 year FIP paints him as middling at best. He doesn't have great control.  He doesn't strike out a bunch. But his delivery is hard to square up leaving things to the gods on when those few hits fall or when he blow a pitch. Hard to see him being unusable, might be good? That's a good signing for that price. 

Ehire Adrianza - Utility player who has been consistently... usable since 2016.  He is a contact hitter who doesn't K, or walk, or hit for power, or high average. But he plays decently all over the field and the average is ok. At 1.5 M you think he's bound for the majors but the Nats are now stacked with just decent utility players who'd normally fill out the last spot on a teams 25 man.  Want a take? Nats are willing to deal Kieboom (a bad season away from being untradable) AND Garcia (mildly disappointing so far but very young so still intriguing to Nats and other teams) and doing that would leave two IF roster spots to fill.

Gerardo Parra - Baby Shark guy was here last year and stunk then. AAAA filler who might get another chance to be brought up for cheap pop.

Anibal Sanchez - There's some excitement for his return on a minor league deal but there isn't any reason for there to be. After catching a late career rebirth for a couple season with the Braves and in a lesser way on the mound but greater way in the title getting with the Nats Sanchez was terrible in 2020 and no one wanted an old formerly terrible now terrible again pitcher in 2021. Chances of him being terrible are very good and while I dislike Fedde and Rogers and Espino they aren't likely to be TERRIBLE. 

Nelson Cruz - the big deal. The guy has been one of the premier HR hitters for over a decade now. He's close to 500 though very unlikely to get there this year.  He doesn't walk too much (but has gotten a little better at that), he does strike out a bunch but not a crazy amount especially in this day and age.  He should make good protection for Juan Soto. Should.  Ultimately with a guy like Nelson Cruz you can't ignore the fact he'll turn 42 halfway through the season. At this age guys lose it overnight. There is no ability to compensate for an injury or for the loss of a skill.

And worrying is the 2nd half stats of .221 / .279 / .438. He still hit homers - 14 in 62 games which would be 30+ for a season, but that's all he did and given he's a DH, flawed hitter is not exactly what you want. 

For a team trying who needs a DH Cruz is still a decent gamble. He will be bad. Probably some season soon. But he was good last year and he only needs to be good this year for you.  But for the Nats I'm not sure.  Are they trying?  

It makes them better. There's no denying that so for the fans in 2022 this signing is a good one. Does it make sense beyond that? We have to see what else the Nats do/

Friday, March 11, 2022

SEASON RESET

I won’t go over the details because other people will do it more thoroughly.  The way I read it the main takeaway is the players got a foot in for pre-arb money while the owners got spending levels below inflation/revenue putting more money in their pockets. Also the players got a change to the worst of the option abusers while the owners got protection from one year crazy spenders. 

The macro view I'll take away is that the players rolled over to a point in the past few negotiations and had to reset themselves in this one. They did that. Who won or lost? It's all a moving target based on where they are, where they could be, and a bunch of things we won't know that'll play out between now and the end of the deal. In the moment, seems reasonable and that's all we can ask for. 

OK so where are we baseball wise?  The Nats depth chart stands like this (with my comments): 

C : Keibert Ruiz (most interesting guy next year - FANTASTIC contact hitter. Should anchor position for years)

1B :  Josh Bell (best case - hidden near All-Star.  worst case - very average bat at a premium position. worth a shot)

2B : Cesar Hernandez (maybe Nats luck into an average season but probably not)

SS :  Luis Garcia (the best ready prospect - I consider Ruiz a starter - needs his ABs.)

3B : Alcides Escobar (if he's not garbage I'll eat an... eskimo bar? Wait do we say Eskimo anymore? It's like Indian right where it's not a slur but there are better terms to use? This is getting off track. Anyway this is real bad. A worst in baseball year if he plays everyday is not impossible)

UTIL : Carter Kieboom (looks terrible, but you decided to ride with him so play him some more and pray)

LF : Yadi Hernandez (really? Yadi? Questionable in the field, maybe average at the plate. Another teams AAAA call-up) 

CF : Lane Thomas (Is he what the Nats saw in 45 games last year? Probably not. But just "probably not" not "no" and last year he was very good so there's at least something to be interested in other than Ruiz) 

RF : Soto (what is there to say other than maybe the best hitter in baseball this generation. Going to get SOOOOO many walks)

4TH : Robles (probably last chance to get head on straight before being jettisoned, should be good enough to start) 

SP : Strasburg? (Simple fact : If he's not healthy, this season starts out nowhere) 

Corbin (Bar has been reset to a low level - just give the Nats 180IP of 4.20 ERA ball. I think he can do it) 

Gray (A half-step better than Ross/Fedde which means he should be in the rotation. But is he good or not? Can he stop giving up a million homers. Third most interesting thing for the team, imo and MOST important) 

Ross? (Good when right, rarely right.)

Fedde? (Good occasionally, a better team's long relief) 

Rogers (lucky bastard, but sometimes 5th starters are like that and you ride that hot streak)

Closer : Kyle Finnegan? Tanner Rainey? Mason Thompson? (Might be the worst bullpen this team has put together to start a year and that's saying something. The Nats NEVER care about their bullpen to start a year)


This is a team that was bad last year and has only gotten worse. The focus is not on 2022 it's on 2024 and keeping Soto for 2025 and beyond. To that end you'd like to see a big long term signing (Correa) but you won't.  Failing that you'd like to see all the Nats young players get good.  You probably will see a couple do that, but not enough. Failing THAT, you'd like to see all the Nats top prospects continue to develop. Who knows? 

Assuming no big roster changes - if things start with Strasburg out things could get very bleak very quickly and the worst case scenario is nothing but Soto trade talk that the team at least entertains (probably wouldn't do it this year) for a squad who might be the worst in baseball.  Best case - with Strasburg starting and healthy - hard to see playoffs but maybe Corbin is good and Ross is healthy enough and the team stays over .500 for a while giving fans an unexpectedly decent season through Labor Day? 

Baseball is back. Good baseball back in DC though... that's probably too far to say.

Thursday, March 10, 2022

We’re back!

 And by “we” I mean baseball players. Major league ones.  In Florida.  

And by “back” I mean have agreed to a collective bargaining agreement to restart the season

Wednesday, March 09, 2022

Getting closer

 No seriously they are! 

One could argue (if they were me) that the owners made their first serious offer yesterday. The minor league minimum is now just window dressing (MLB is 700K gradually to 770 by end, MLBPA is 725K to 745 to 765K followed by a CPI adjustment in last years).  The Pre-arb bonus pool is still a bit away but common ground seems findable (MLB is 50 mill flat, MLBPA is 80 mill rising up to 100 mill). Players seem amenable to quicker rule changes the owners want.  Players might give on international draft (which will help suppress salaries but might help curb some of the worst of the things going on internationally with pre-teens being hounded but also might hurt the "immediate help" aspect for younger players in need.  It's a complicated topic) IF owners agreeable to ending the QO system (which helps suppress salaries by tying FAs to teams. It's not as complicated). That'd be a slight win for the owners - the QO system not being used much and more and more of their money going to international signings that wouldn't happen in a draft system.

But it comes back to the CBT

MLB : 230 to 242, new extra penalty level so penalties at 20/40/60 over (unclear current levels - last I saw was 45% / 62% / 95%)

MLBPA : 238 to 263, penalties at 20/40 million over (12%, 45%)

MLB wants its cake (Lower total for salaries) and to eat it, too (defacto cap with onerous penalties).  MLBPA wants its cake (Higher total) basically already can't eat it because there's almost a defacto cap as is.

I can see the players accept a lower total, even another penalty level, but not those penalty rates. They want teams who want to spend to spend. Owners want to save themselves from themselves.

Monday, March 07, 2022

Monday Quickie - holding in place

There's nothing to report lockout wise. The MLBPA came back with an offer a tiny bit closer to the MLB one to which the MLB said "YOU ARE GOING BACKWARDS!!!" which tells you the state of things. 

Alternate baseball

There is baseball right now! In America! College baseball.  

I'm assuming most of you live in the NoVA, DelMarVa, whatever dumb acronym that doesn't really capture the area that you like. If so Maryland Baseball is pretty good - last ranked 21st in the country but losers of 2 of 3 in a little showcase to end last week which will probably drop them out of the rankings, but still pretty good. They have a home and home against VCU this week and a couple games against Georgetown after that.  I don't know DII or DIII schools off the top of my head but I see Johns Hopkins and Lynchburg and Washington & Jefferson and you can view the pre-season polls here : http://baseballnews.com/

In a few weeks, there will definitely not be major league baseball but their will be minor league baseball. The Nats farm system, if you don't know it, is :

Fredericksburg Nationals (Low-A) : the Fred Nats who AREN'T EVEN LISTED AS AN AFFILIATE  Man, what a second rate org the Nats became after winning the title. In theory the drive is an hour or so and Brady House should be here at least to start.

Wilmington Blue Rocks (High-A) : before you head to the beach that's Delaware, not NC. 2 hour drive

Harrisburg Senators (AA) : The little city with nothing in the middle of everything usually has the best prospects though the Nats system is slim and the best guys will be in AAA and Low-A to start the year.  Hmm not selling it. It is only a 2 hour drive!

Rochester Red Wings (AAA) : You want to see Cavalli? Get a hotel in NY's "Oh yeah I guess Kodak built something here a long time ago.  Wait, it's not on the lake outside of a technicality?" city, Rochester! 6 and a half hours away.   


If you don't have to see Nats players there are even more choices

Aberdeen Ironbirds (High A - Orioles) 

Reading Fightin Phils (AA - Phillies) 

Delmarva Shorebirds (Low A - Orioles)

Bowie Baysox (AA - Orioles)

Richmond Flying Squirrles (AA - Giants) 

and that's just the closest

PA has Altoona, Allentown,  and Scranton / Wilkes-Barre, NJ has Somerset and Lakewood (Jersey Shore) VA has Norfolk, Lynchburg and Salem. A bit of a drive south and NC has the most of any state with 10. And this is just the affiliated teams. You gotta have family somewhere!

Put any recommendations you have in the comments. I can answer any NC Qs you might have.

Thursday, March 03, 2022

Well I guess I should write something

On Tuesday the talks fell apart.  It's probably more accurate to say the talks were never actually building as we had hoped and the pieces remained unassembled on the ground, but why quibble?  The results are the same - no baseball, not now, probably not soon. 

There are a faction of hardline owners who have drawn a line in the sand. They must make more money out of baseball regardless of what happens going forward and that means limiting salaries. The best way to do that is to keep salaries for controlled young players low; so a lower minimum than the players' ask and no arbitration expansion, and to limit the amount anyone can spend for players; with a cap that doesn't increase with revenues or inflation and harsher penalties for going over.  Why do they want this? Because who doesn't want more money and more security? But its not about the difference between making or losing money. Don't believe that. It's about making money or making more money.

Sports labor fights are hard for fans.  I often have said fans are likely to side with owners because we understand what ownership does. They might not actually do the day to day stuff but someone is doing real work as we understand it. They run a business. You've got to hire and fire, and deal with contractors, and worry about prices, etc. etc. It might be a crazy lucrative spin on jobs we know of in a weird industry, but it's still a spin on jobs we know of.  

Athletes though, that's not a job to us. There is no relation for us to think "ok this guy should get paid just for playing a game" on an instinctual level. It goes against everything we took in growing up. We PLAY sports, for fun, all throughout our youth. We don't play at being boss. It's a game for kids. It's something most of us would love to do for a fraction of their salaries. Of course if we step back and think about it, it makes sense.  An entertainer draws a crowd and you pay to see them. These guys aren't just playing a game, but playing a game better than anyone can right now. But it takes those extra steps.  That makes a difference. That often makes fans side against the players. 

It's also tough because when we think of labor fights we aren't really thinking of people getting paid fair wages, but reasonable ones. We want people to be able to have the basics; food, clothes, shelter. We want people to be able to pay their bills and not worry about health care and be able to put their kids through school.  If a business is profitable we don't want the CEO driving his fancy car to his mansion to pack for a week his vacation home if the guy on the line can't take his family to the beach once a year. But what is reasonable when nearly everyone involved lives like that CEO? 

OK yes, minor league players and guys who have cups of coffee in the majors aren't living that life. A prorated 2-3 seasons doesn't set you up for life and a guy like... let's say James Borque might have played 8 years of baseball for about 100K total.  But the CBA isn't about them, officially so. It's about major leaguers. About major leaguers who stick around.  Changes to the minimum salary and arbitration are nice and needed but they don't really change the facts on the ground.  If you can stick on a roster for the equivalent of 3+ years, you are set for life (assuming you are smart enough to invest some, not waste money, and are planning on doing SOMETHING for income) If you can make it on a roster the full team control time you may not even have to do all that, and if you can get one contract post control you are officially idle rich.

So how does one deal with that? How does one deal with a labor issue that the guy we see as incredibly rich being robbed of some money by the guy with unimaginable wealth? How do we deal with it when this robbery materially changes nothing for the rich guy? He is still rich.  How do you get us to care? 

 It's very hard! Which is again why most of these things have ended with the majority of fans booing the players. Just get rich playing your game and shut up!

But this time it's a little different. We've come to back the players more because the owners haven't even bothered to try to make us care. They are the ones locking the players out. They spent a month doing nothing. Their offers to the players haven't shown movement. They sent up the unlikable Manford to smile his way through public appearances. Why? Because they don't need us to care. It's nice not to be yelled at.  It's nice for the fans to put pressure on the players. But this plays out the same with or without fans. This isn't about the fans. 

What now? 

The owners have some money coming in their mind from additional revenue sources in the CBA; Ads on jerseys, extra playoffs. That extends the time they can have no games. Eventually though that pressure of having no income will wear on ownerships and around 140 games TV deals start to break down into per game payments costing them a lot of money.  Does it wear more than on players? Maybe so.  The players have their personal pressures but it's internal. The ownerships often have external pressures. Other ownership members, debt collectors, shareholders, gambling partners; that don't care about wringing the last dollar from baseball. This is why ownership often loses. 

This is going to go on for a while. Ownership is willing to play chicken with the season . Players are willing to take that bet.  Since everything so far has gone as worse as possible I'll assume the same without the armageddon of losing a whole season. I'll say we're out until somewhere near Memorial Day.