Nationals Baseball: Nothing could possib-lye go wrong

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Nothing could possib-lye go wrong

No. The Nats didn't need another reliable starter. Don't be silly.

Commenter Hoo (this really sounds like the beginning of a bad comedy bit doesn't it?) asked a good question. Why the hell have his surgery now? Why not have it in November or December? A 3 months recovery time then would have been perfect.

According to the Post - the hip has been an issue for a year or so. That makes it seem like they could have gone ahead and done it at the end of last season. According to Zuckerman and other sources, though - the injury didn't happen until last month. It sounds conflicting but it probably isn't. Most likely Detwiler hurt his hip last year and pitched through it. When the season ended he hoped with an extended rest he'd be ok. Unfortunately once he started up again, getting ready for this year - it got aggravated again or was made worse.

Of course that's all well and good if it was just a case of Detwiler being like every other minor leaguer (and like most normal people everyday in fact), working through pain and hoping whatever is wrong will just go away. HOWEVER, if the Nats knew that Detwiler was having issues, they really should have taken a look at it at the end of last season. I don't know what they knew, but I know what I know, which is I don't see any reason to give this team's management any benefit of the doubt. Maybe I should though, because they've always been on top of injuries.


Hoo said...

I'm sure no one feels worse than Detweiler. Big set back to his career. Let's say he's ready to go in June. But I'm guessing by then the rotation is Marquis,Lannan.Wang, Olsen, 5th spot... He'll have to hope that JD Chicostamrtis is a failure and maybe a second half call up date.

In '11, you have Marquis, Lannan, JZ's return and Stras (?) already holding down 4 spots. And Wang possibly was well...Sure they'll be trades but there's not 3 spots open like there are right now.

I think this was a huge year for Detweiler and an organizational failure let him down. He was the guy I was most excited about seeing on the mound in hopes that his late season run was real progress and not a mirage.

Harper said...

I wanted to see Detwiler too. Oh well. It happens. I'm interested in what you're pencilling in for 2011

2 starters (26,32 in '11) will make it there healthy.
1 starter will develop on schedule
1 possible starter will come back from injury
1 starter will come back from injury AND continue to develop

I'll bet right now 2 out of Lannan, Marquis, Strasburg, J Zimm, Wang WON'T be part of the Nats opening dat 2011 roster.

Unknown said...

By '11, I'm looking more at July 2011, when Stras is most likely up. That gives you Marquis, Lannan, Stras as your core 3. I think Wang/Olsen are gone (I think it's a coin flip which one is better this year between those 2). I'm hoping JZ is back healthy giving the Nats a real competitive rotation at 1-4, but that's not too realistic. Then the 5th could be a competition between a FA or a breakthrough of the other guys (ie Martis makes or Mock makes the leap or Detweiler returns).

Coming out of the chutes in '11 will be a fascinating question. Ideally, SS and JZ starts in the minors for a while. But if Nats decides to really go after the playoffs then you're looking at Marquis, Lannan, Stras, premium FA signing, and other guy. I'd love for it to be JZ but I don't think he'll be ready (and he definitely shouldn't pitch a full year in '11..In some ways, I'm resigned to not seeing him till late '11 and '12 full time.).

Detweiler's problem is that everything we've heard as the Nats priming for a playoff push next year. Wouldn't you expect that Nats to go out and spend big money for a big time starter to let Stras mature as a 2/3 type guy? Then we have #1 FA, SS, Marquis, Lannan, (other, with knowledge that JZ could return mid-year).

So here's the question: What's Det future with the organization? In first scenario, team muddles through with an open competition for a few spots knowing that by the end of the year your four ideally is Marquis, Lannan, Stras and JZ. So that's one open spot for Det.

Second scenario has Det competing against JZ's and the rest for that 5th spot (assuming Nats actually get a FA and don't trade Marquis/Lannan).

My opening '11 roster depends on how confident Rizzo is: Scenario A: Lannan, marquis, FA, Org prospect, filler (wang, etc). Stras/JZ up mid-year and hopefully Det is in there.

Scenario B: (everything goes right), FA stud, Marquis, SS, Lannan maybe Det, Maybe JZ or other.

hoo said...

That was me. Feels ridiculous projecting '11 but we have a lot of prospects coming on line.

Anonymous said...

There is no way Strasburg comes up in mid 2011. He'll be up long before that. The only that happens is if he gets a major injury.

Harper said...

rea - scenario B was my rotation in the Nats dream 2011 .500/playoff push. (Stud free agent being Josh Beckett). As Hoo said this is really much worse for Detwiler than the Nats. If he didn't make himself this year - he could very well find him shut out until Lannan becomes a free agent. It's one less decent arm but the Nats will move on.

Anon - there are two big reasons to hold him back - arbitration clock and his own development. AFL state do suggest he could be up this year - but if the Nats are 30-60 come mid-July they might not bother.

Unknown said...

Re: Detwiler playing time- I think that if Detwiler is capable of starting in MLB, the team lets Marquis go after 2011, and then there's an opening even in the dream-best-case-scenario of Strasburg (as the best pitcher in the history of baseball), Beckett, Lannan, JZimm all being awesome and playing for the Nats beyond next year. Wang and Marquis would leave via FA by then, Detwiler would have full season to recover and develop. If he's as good as we're hoping in this post, why would the Lerners pay somebody to stay when Detwiler will do (CHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP)

Unknown said...

Re: Strasburg- I think he signed a 4 year deal that buys out all but the last 2 years of arbitration, whether he is a Super 2 or not. I don't think that matters to the Nats. Could be wrong- I struggle with draft contracts and arbitration rules sometimes...