So it's been a while. Anything happen?
Ok let's quickly talk about Friday. Strasburg continued his playoff dominance by handling the Dodgers for 6 innings (3 hits,1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K). Kershaw was fine but Doolittle (really one bad pitch), Scherzer, and Hudson shut the door after Stephen and there wasn't anything the Dodgers could do. I noted going in Davey had an easy game to manage because it was effectively a three man staff, but Max throwing his hat into the ring did add a wrinkle, and the closeness of the game didn't afford many missteps. I thought Davey did well. The first big decision he had was pulling Strasburg - which could be argued but with the big lefties coming up and Stras coming off a 2-hit, deep fly ball out, line out inning - it made sense to move on. The second was the use of Max. The alternative though was trying to get 9 outs from Doolittle & Hudson. To me, neither is appealing and it's a judgment call. Davey went with Max and it worked great. Even the AsCab PH choice worked tacking on an insurance run that became a big deal when Hudson almost blew it in the 9th. So good game by Davey
Yesterday was iffier but the truth of the matter is the Nats fell behind due to no real fault of Davey. Anibal went 5 stron... check that - he went 1 very weak, 3 strong, 1 ok. But because he escaped the first the damage was limited to 1 run. That and Soto's first inning blast put the Nats up 2-1 but also had them facing a dilemma. How do we get 12 more outs? They could have kept Sanchez in but in a tight game a speedy man on first and one-out calls for a PH. I was fine for using Zimm there. And the plan seemed to be to use Corbin from the get go. As he was being brought in in the 6th the plan was likely Corbin for 2 if possible, Doolittle, Hudson. But after a single and two Ks Corbin gave up a through the infield single (can't pull him yet) and then a powerful double. Two runs score 3-2. It's here where I feel Davey faltered, letting Corbin continue instead of trying best to contain the damage. We've talked about not "saving" pitchers for important situations that may never come. This was a big situation and with a righty up Corbin should have been pulled for Hudson. I know, I know no guarantees but it was the best available option. But he wasn't pulled and Corbin walked Taylor and the Dodgers pinch hit Hernandez. Another opportunity to pull Corbin. Another non-move. Another crushing double. At this point Corbin was pulled (instead of pitching to Muncy who they IBBd - this move I'm ok with if you are going righty out of the pen) but instead of Hudson we got Suero, we got homer, we got ballgame...
Well almost. Roberts correctly saw an opportunity to let Joe Kelly find himself with a 6 run lead in the last half of the game. Problem was he was up against the heart of the Nats line-up and the next four guys got on and Kelly was out (presumably for the series). There was a question of whether they could have goaded Roberts into keeping Kelly pitching by keeping Dozier in (instead of PH AsCab - who hits both but is generally better from the left hand side) but I don't think so. I think Urias was coming in no matter what. Maybe they lost the opportunity for a better match-up but I don't think they lost an AB against Kelly.
After that the Nats down 8-4 they couldn't quite go to Doolittle and Hudson so it was up to the B.. no C... no D-Teamers. Rodney nearly lost it but didn't. Rainey wasn't perfect but got out of his inning. Strickland got bombed and should get the Joe Kelly treatment. You could argue why Strickland and not Voth but at this point I'm not using Voth in a likely unwinnable game and giving the Dodgers a look at him. Voth is my go to tonight if for some reason keeping to Max, Doo, Hudson is impossible. Is it a bad go to? Almost certainly. But you gotta try it.
So all in all it wasn't a terrible weekend for Davey. He kind of froze in that 6th, which put the game out of reach and that matters but otherwise - eh. I'm not getting worked up about it.
Why? Well because Davey is in an impossible situation. He may be messing up but he's given no leeway to do that. All managers make mistakes. Davey can't because he's literally got two men he trusts in the pen, then it's starters, then it's Rodney? I don't like some decisions but he could play it perfectly and what happens? Like last night let's say he gets Hudson in there and he gets out. 3-2 Dodgers but the Nats aren't facing Joe Kelly. Do they tie? Hudson is probably asked to work the 7th but how does that go after what you saw Friday? Ok in trouble and in comes Doo... maybe he gets out of it too but then he's PH for and then what. Figure best reasonable case is it's 3-3 and the Nats gotta find 6 outs from everyone else, while scoring against a solid Dodger pen. The odds would still be heavily in LA's favor here.
Davey has fault but it's down there behind the Lerners for not ponying up the cash and Rizzo for keeping with his prospect holding. And then there are the bats. Collective line for the team .194 / .283 / .280. I get - harder opponent - worse hitting BUT they should be doing worse than usual not flat out terrible. They've only hit one homer. The line-up is hitting like we feared might. Turner and Eaton are doing ok, Rendon and Soto are doing ok. A total of 12 hits and 7 walks between these 4 guys. Then nothing, 6 hits and 1 walk from the rest of the team. Suzuki and Gomes 0-9. Parra, Dozier, Adams, Zimm, AsCab 2-15, with 1 XBH.
I don't know what to say other than - hope Max is MAX for one night despite the injury and the history and the already unusual usage pattern. Then hope Hill is bad. If we look at the pre-series goals
1) Aces Aces? Pretty much. Even Sanchez was good.
2) Keep it close for Jansen. No. Both G1 and G3 devolved quickly.
3) Don't miss opportunity to get out bottom of LAs lineup. First game they went Muncy at 2B so line-up had no hole. Last two they used Lux and Nats mostly held him in check as a starter in the 8 hole.
4) Roberts outthinking himself? Here and there a little but not really. Then again he's got all the leeway Davey doesn't
So they aren't getting any breaks from the Dodgers, but they are managing the lineup and getting good starts. The breakdown is when the hitting and the relief aren't keeping the game close enough. A couple bad choices by Davey made it worse but he's got few good ones. The series has to help Davey out, but it's made things harder on him twice and both times we've seen the result. The Nats can't afford that again.
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My comment from last night stand (stood). The relievers, all levels after the 5th, pretty much sucked. And I got to bed a a decent hour. When I checked the score upon waking, it wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. (And not as good as I hoped.)
Tonight's game will, hopefully, be a game worth watching - as long as Max doesn't give it up in the 1st.
If the Nats can A) get a win, and B) not use Stras, then they're actually set up well for G5. But I know that's a tall ask and low probability. If you have to use Stras to help you get a G4 curly W, then you have to do it and then go kitchen sink in G5. Stay in the fight!
What was up with that Kendrick TOOTBLAN? Obviously a sac fly isn't the big blow they needed in that situation, but at least they'd still have first and second with one out... instead it's a runner on first with two outs and that is pretty much that. Bewildering.
Also, what's up with Corbin going 0-2 on three guys (Bellinger, Martin, Hernandez) and not getting any of them out? Hard to tell from the upper deck--I don't know if it was pitch selection, failure to execute, or what, but man that's frustrating. And while I'm at it, Suero started out 0-2 on Tuner as well.
Corbin was exhausted, and couldn't make the slider work after the 2 strikeouts. I agree fully with Harper that Corbin should have been pulled after the double by Martin on a hanging slider. He definitely should have been pulled after walking Taylor. His pitch to Hernandez was a terrible hanging slider that most pitchers would have hammered. I can't fault Corbin; he gave it his all. But he had to pitch way too many pitches on 2 days rest. Again, I agree with Harper: it was time to use Hudson. What are you saving him for?
@Carl Howie has been Storen-esque in these playoffs, it's baffling. As for Corbin, I haven't been a big fan of Gomes' pitch calling all year. I don't think Max and Stras are either. He didn't seem to have a plan to put guys away, it was like he was calling the put away pitches on 0-1 counts, getting swings and misses, but where do you go from there? He also did nothing to establish the inner half. Corbin needs to be able to throw a ball inside there to set up the slider away or at least go up the ladder with a competitive pitch out of the zone.
@Harper I agree on DM. Some bad moves, but it's an impossible situation because of how historically bad the bullpen is. At season's end, I'm almost inclined to bring back DM and fire Rizzo. I think Davey does a great job managing personalities, and game 2 showed real improvement in the X and Os side of things. I've actually liked the job Davey has done in the playoffs better than any Nats manager before. I mean, the bars not set very high, but it could be worse.
The issue here is that Rizzo built a team without a bullpen and an offense that was too top heavy. Had they signed Grandal and added some relievers they'd be in a different spot. But what does it say about roster construction when two of the biggest AB's thus far have gone to AsCab? Or the fact that when your CFer goes down, you're giving AB's to a guy that spent the year at AAA, and wasn't particularly good in AAA. However, it should be mentioned too, that the Dodgers are just very good.
The last pitch Corbin threw was his 35th. Letting a pitcher go past 30 in an inning is asking for trouble.
I also think Hudson looked scared Friday.
@JW YES! It frustrates me that against lefties both last night and in his start, Corbin threw like NOTHING inside. I thought he was overthrowing at first, but then I realized it was because Gomes wouldn't call anything but low and away. It was ridiculous. Batters could just sit there and wait for a ball that starts inside and know it's going to sit out over the plate at the end of it's trajectory
And worried Bellinger has now broken out and will hit 3HR tonight. Hopefully they're all solo shots and the Nats offense can score 4.
Scherz, Doo, Hudson... It's the best we've got, so we'll go with that tonight! Or, Max throws all nine...
@Zimmerman11 - Instead of going nine, Max goes 8 2/3 and DM pulls him for . . . .
If I'm DM, I'm putting it all on Max tonight. If he gets shelled, he gets shelled, but I'm riding that horse until I can't anymore because you've got no one to go to. The bullpen can give you maybe 2 innings, I'd just let Max be Max even if throws 135 pitches.*
*Obviously certain game situations might change this approach or if Max looks like he's hurt or could be hurt, you adjust.
@Anderiffick said: "I also think Hudson looked scared Friday."
I read last month an interview where Hudson said something to the effect that he doesn't like to be a closer. When have you ever heard a bullpen pitcher say that?!
Which on one hand makes you think he can't handle the pressure. But I find that approach refreshing. The Reluctant Closer. I don't know why, but that makes me want him as a closer.
I expect Max will pitch 6, Stras will pitch the 7th, and then Doolittle and Hudson and 8th and 9th. Is that super risky with Stras needing to start Wednesday? Sure, but what choice do they have? It's Stras's pen day and he has the best postseason ERA of all time. Is Stras likely to be less effective through overuse? Sure, but the only real path to the NLCS is riding Stras and Scherzer for as many innings as possible from here on out.
Tough situation but lets hope for a great start by Max. We still haven't gotten the offensive breakout that we've been hoping for, unfortunately. It's do or die so everyone should be available tonight and then figure things out in LA if you get there.
I have no idea what was going on with Howie.
Something Gomes said last night makes sense on Corbin not being able to put guys away. His game is a long one. He sets guys up for later. This means his 2nd, 3rd time around the order numbers are great but he's no better 1-9 than 10-18. Contrast that with Stras who Ks more early and Max who basically Ks EVERYONE early. Factor in a little unfamiliarity and a patient team and you can see the problem
I feel like I'm watching a repeat episode
BANG! ZOOM!
Loved seeing Zim kill it in what may be his last game at Nats Park.
Bring on Game 5
Early odds out of Vegas for game 5. Dodgers are a -380 favorite over Nats even with Strasburg pitching. Showing absolutely no respect for Nats. Time to shock the world?
Well! For the first time, we see Max be MAX!! in a playoff game, Doolittle and Hudson pitch well, Zim gets the big hit, and we get a win. (Also, this is our second win of these playoffs in an elimination game, which is two more than the franchise has ever had in its history. Unfortunately we need to do it again. Stras vs. Buehler, so everybody's putting their best foot forward. And thankfully, the off day means Doo and Hudson get a day of rest. Howie waking up and getting some hits, and even Michael Taylor doing his "I'm only good in the playoffs" thing.
@DezPenguin - Werth walkoff HR was also a stave off elimination game.
Thank god for the MLB At Bat app. I’ve watched the highlights over and over again. I’m proud of our fans. The roar of the crowd was legit. And it was loudest for a home run by Ryan Zimmerman, one who gets 98% criticism from me. Poetic justice, and I’ll gladly be eating crow for the rest of the month. Max was great. So much grit, making it easy on our manager and finally parking one in the seats to send a message. We are not going out without a fight. Thank you Ovi, for throwing out the first pitch. Thank you Max for a gutsy performance. Thank you Doo for bridging the gap. Thank you MAT for stepping up. Man....
God I love this team.
If tomorrow is our last game, I just want to express how awesome it was to watch this team play. The early adversity, the calls for DM’s job, possibly Zimm’s last season as a Nat. This season was so much fun and so pivotal in lieu of losing BxJaycob’s favorite player ;) during the off-season. Life goes on. The kids are alright. No matter what happens in game 5... thank you Nats. I’m proud.
Strasburg's 2017 flu game was an elimination game as well. The Nats do really well in game 4s. Game 5s, however...
Maybe a new script tomorrow night.
Wow, who would've thunk it, but DM did a good job managing again. He rode Max until he couldn't go anymore and only used Doolittle and Hudson. The Nats are a very flawed team given their bullpen, but I think all of the pressure is on the Dodgers tomorrow. They're supposed to win this series, the Nats are playing with house money. The hit a number of balls to the track the other night against Buehler, most of them to dead center. 10 yards toward the corner and those are homeruns. However, that's the only silver lining because Buehler was excellent. For the Nats to have a chance they have to stop swinging at pitches up, also an umpire with a low strike zone wouldn't hurt either.
There's a ton of luck in baseball, and the Nats were the beneficiaries of a lot of it last night. I was begging DM to let someone else get the last out of the 7th, because Max was struggling hard. DM left Max in, which I don't think was the right move, but it worked out and the Nats won so actually then it was the right move.
All in all, while I don't think DM has gotten every micro decision right, his macro strategy has been correct. It was clear from the beginning that he would do everything possible to avoid using the 'pen, which is basically the opposite of the formula for success in the playoffs in recent years. Now given the quality of the Nats' bullpen, it's not like it's a really hard decision, but DM seems to have everyone on board for it, and the fact that they have managed to get this deep into the series with basically 2 real bullpen arms is pretty incredible. And you can be 100% sure that ol' "he's our 8th inning guy" PBN would never have done this, and the series would never have happened because Strasburg wouldn't have pitched lights out in relief in the WC.
On the "elimination game" question, I think the correct stat was that until the Brewers last week, the Nats had never won in a game where they could eliminate the *other* team from the playoffs. Let's double up that stat Wednesday in LA.
@Kenny B - With regards the bullpen and DM not using them . . . Did you see the looks on the relievers' faces when Hudson headed out. They knew, and it was obvious, that they weren't going to see any action for the rest of the year except in really dire circumstances. I hope they find teams where they can make a positive difference.
...and that Rizzo can find some relievers next year to make a positive difference in DC.
And to echo others, we all knew that Max would give up a dinger in the first. That it was only one, and the bases were empty, is a bonus. The rest of the game was mesmerizing.
Last night was one of the best Nats experiences I've had at the park. The fans were great. The team delivered.
Was glad to see Mad Max return last night. No way was DM going out there with 2 outs in the 7th to fetch him, even when the tank was on fumes. He even was stalking during the mound visit earlier!
To those fretting about Wednesday just enjoy it and hopefully the guys keep this going. (And hope the Cards finish off the Barves.)
In regards to the elimination game questions both NLDS game 4 in 2012 (Werth walk off) and NLDS game 4 in 2017 (Stras flu game & Taylor grand slam) were both games the Nats won facing elimination, so, so far this year they have as many wins in that scenario as they had in their history. The only non-winner take all game they lost with a chance to eliminate their opponent was NLDS game 4 back in 2016.
Whatever happens on Wednesday just enjoy the ride and the season from June 1 on. Hopefully Stras puts in another dominant performance and they can scrape together a couple of runs off of Buehler and or the Dodgers bullpen to live another week. No matter how good Stras is, as I mentioned the other day, if you score 0 runs it will be impossible to win.
Do you keep riding MAT in Game 5? Or do you give Parra the nod against Walker Buehler?
I like our chances. That's all I'm going to say.
@JE34 I think you 100% ride with MAT...he has seen these Dodgers pitchers more and more recently, and is not that much of a drop off from Robles anyway.
Robles has the upside and is the future, but right at this moment MAT is the play. Don't see Robles coming back from injury and lighting the Dodgers' staff up all of a sudden.
For Wednesday, it's simple. If Strasburg can go 7, we win. If his pitch count gets up there and he leaves in the 5th...we are in trouble.
Buehler will have one off inning, and we have to make him pay.
Anyone want to speculate on who Dave M. uses if Strasburg can't go seven (or if he has to pinch hit for Strasburg)?
Doo and Hudson pitch 3 (or more) innings?
Scherzer: does he have another inning in him?
Voth (kind of tough to put a kid in Game 5 for his first post season appearance)?
Rodney (heaven forbid -- but he's the least likely of the bad relievers to collapse under pressure)?
No way we see Suero, Strickland, or Corbin. Don't want to see Rainey either.
Scherzer is out. He said so himself (and when HE says he can't pitch...).
If Stras can only go 6, I'd try to squeeze 9 outs out of Doo/Huddy, not necessarily in that order. If he can only go 5, I'd deploy Voth. Yes it's a big spot, but the Dodgers have not seen him yet, so he could be deceptive.
If anybody else from the BP sees the mound, we're in trouble. Corbin neither...and if we get past tomorrow do we consider Sanchez to start game 1 of the LCS (not getting ahead of myself at all.......)
@PotomacFan I think if Stras can't go 7, you have to go back to Corbin. Give him a chance to redeem himself. Let him be the bridge to Doo/Hudson. Or maybe you play matchups and go Corbin for lefties, and Rodney or Rainey for a righty?
Would love to see 1 inning from Max, but don't know if there will be anything left in the tank, even with a day of rest.
By the way, I think people are forgetting the fact that Max was MAX in 2016 G5 (against the Dodgers no less!) Maybe this memory has been lost because he gave up a game-tying solo HR to start the 7th (on an oppo boppo by Pederson. Good pitch, fastball tailing away, just a tip-your-cap kind of play). Max was still MAX and definitely not the reason they lost that game. Gave you 6+, 1ER, and had dominant stuff.
How many times does this have to be said? Corbin isn't going to ever be good in relief. His pitching style is conducive to getting outs over multiple frames, and not over one.
Use Sanchez in relief if anyone!
BP options behind Doo and Hudson, who I expect to be available for 3 innings after looking sharp yesterday with a fair bit of rest otherwise. Break glass in emergency has to be Rainey, Voth, and maaayybee Rodney/Anibal.
Corbin has a career ERA as a reliever better than as a starter
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=corbipa01&year=Career&t=p
If Strasburg can't go deep, I'd use Corbin. Everyone acts like he did so terrible, but he got squeezed a bit and gave up a walk, then gave up a seeing eye single Freese. By the time guys started hitting him, he was 30 pitches into the inning. However, someone needs to explain to Gomes that Corbin needs to come inside to lefties to set up the slider away, and establish the fastball away with righties.
I think it's gotta be Corbin too. Give him a chance to redeem himself.
Yeah, if what Gomes said about Corbin's "long game" is true, then all the more reason not to use him in relief. I think you save Corbin for Game 1 of the NLCS, gods willing.
If Stras can't go 7, then it's either Doo/Hudson for multiple innings, or Sanchez as the bridge. Sanchez might be ok on 2 days rest, given his repertoire, and he looked pretty good on Sunday. I wouldn't want to hang the season on him, but then again if the season is still in the balance, Stras is probably still on the mound.
@Mr. T - Perhaps this is the problem with Gomes pitch calling to Corbin, he was calling pitches like it was the first inning. However, I wouldn't be opposed to Sanchez because I think his stuff might be a better when he's tired and not throwing as hard.
@JW, but how did Corbin get 30 pitches deep in the first place? He wasn't fooling anyone. Maybe he was tired, maybe it was an off night, maybe he'd make an adjustment, but I wouldn't put him back out there, against that lineup, in a deciding game.
We beat Buehler on July 28 at home. he gave up 8 hits and 7 runs. This was the game Stras pitched. He had 2 hits in 7 innnings, 1 R. Woh.
Lets do it again.
@Anon 7 runs yes, but only 4 ER. I think a combination of the errors and the close ball calls by the ump rattled him (especially since he felt like Stras got those same calls).
We're all praying for at least 7 clean frames from Strasburg, but if he can't go that far, I do not envy DM's choices. I think I'd throw Sanchez out there to bridge it to Doo & Hudson, or put Voth in a big spot and ask him to become a legend in his first post-season game. I'm rattled by Corbin's last relief appearance.
These DS games are crazier than CS and WS. The margin for error is small and pressure is too high. Look what happened to JVerlander last night. Nats need to play relaxed. The pressure is on Dodgers to execute. Anything is possible today. Lets hope we prevail. Go Nats!
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