Wild Card Game. We've seen the lineup and know Max is the starter. To help the lazy it's this:
Trea Turner SS
Adam Eaton RF
Anthony Rendon 3B
Juan Soto LF
Howie Kendrick 1B
Asdrúbal Cabrera 2B
Kurt Suzuki C
Victor Robles CF
Max Scherzer P
Maybe a mild surprise to some that Zimm isn't starting but over Howie Zimm shouldn't be starting. Not now.
The Brewers are countering with
1. Trent Grisham RF (L)
2. Yasmani Grandal C
3. Mike Moustakas 3B (L)
4. Keston Hiura 2B
5. Ryan Braun LF
6. Eric Thames 1B (L)
7. Lorenzo Cain CF
8. Orlando Arcia SS
9. Brandon Woodruff P
Cain is playing which is good for them. I know they were going for as much L/R balance as possible. I would have probably flipped Cain and Grisham for the reasons I explained in yesterday's ramble. That does put two lefties in a row but I'd worry about getting my best hitters that 4th or 5th at bat more than a one inning possible match-up issue. The Brewers problem is Moustakas and Thames are the good bats struggling but if you drop both you pack the lefties. So they just keep it as-is and hope. And for one game...
With more time to think I haven't really changed my mind. I think the Nats have an advantage and the smart money is on them. But its one baseball game so the Nats having a nice advantage over a team they are better than but is still good gives them all of a 60% chance of winning. That's a 40% chance of losing. In other words roll these line-ups and pitchers out with these tactics for 10 games the Nats would lose like 4 times. It's baseball. There's a lot talent doesn't cover.
Things I'd like to see
1) A clean first inning from Max. He gets way too excited for these games (6HBP in last 7 playoff appearances. for ref - 7 HBP in regular season this year) and can get a little out of control. Not that I'd expect him to immediately blow it, but the more innings he pitches the better and the quicker he's in and out of the first the better for how many innings he can go. I can see it get bogged down and be a 25 pitch scoreless affair and would much rather see a 15 pitch 1-2-3.
2) A cautious approach to Woodruff. Even if you are an aggressive approach guy at heart Woodruff hasn't pitched more than a couple innings in a while. They'll try to stretch him but that means like 75 pitches. A cautious Nats team could get him out in under 3 IP if he's not on.
3) In general a quick hook. It's hard to say when but if you are going to be bullpen heavy and only use the good arms, then be one batter too soon, then one batter too late. If possible though don't use the starters mid-inning, to keep it as usual for them as possible.
4) In particular attack Braun and Cain. The one big liability with this line-up is Suzuki's inability to throw guys out (10% for the year). But the Brewers don't really run. If you can keep Cain, not a huge homer threat, and Braun, not the threat he was, off the basepaths in exchange for a couple other guys on, do that. Hiura is another guy who might take off but he's too much of a homer threat now to go after imo.
5) Don't test Grandal until you have to. He's not special but he's good enough and the Nats shouldn't need extra bases as opposed to runners in general with this line-up and this pitching staff. Certainly not early. Don't give them outs.
OK On to the game.
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40 comments:
They always give away outs! Bunts, steals and dumb leads. Alright. Off to the stadium.
Super nervous!!!!!!!!! Heading over soon. Hope the Nats get a curly W. Saint Wild Cards Day speech, anyone?
He that outlives this day
And safe home comes . . .
This should be fun, or awful, never experienced wild card baseball. Hope trea hits a dinger to lead off
Just watched highlights from Max's 20 K game to get pumped
Welp, shouldn't have started Scherzer that question is answered. Time to get Stras up for the second inning
Tell me about those sabermetrics again Anon.
Enjoy Rendon's last game as a Nat everybody. Goodnight.
This is ugly. Bats are way outta sync. They haven’t looked comfortable ALL night.
Damn. Strasburg might’ve gone CG shutout. He should’ve started. Not that Max pitched bad. But not the shut down performance these ugly hitters needed tonight.
SOOOOOOOOTTTTTTOOOOO
I used to comment here. I stopped in recent years, but I’ve been lurking. Felt like I should weigh in with this community to say, DAMN that felt good to witness.
That Zimmerman broken bat single might be my favorite Nat moment of all time. I love Zim. I am so glad he could contribute like that in probably his last year as more or less a Nats regular. That has GOT to be such a moment for him. No matter how the rest of the post-season goes, that was a HUGE at-bat, and a HUGE moment for him.
Oh...and...Bryce who?????
LETS GO NATS! LETS GO NATS! LETS GO NATS! STAY IN THE FIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stras and Soto save the day! What a great trade for Hudson!
Never never never never give up!
"He is moving with a love so deep
Hallelujah for the victory
Good things are coming even when we can't see
We can't see it yet, but we believe that
It's like the brightest sunrise
Waiting on the other side of the darkest night
Don't ever lose hope, hold on and believe
Maybe you just haven't seen it, just haven't seen it yet
You're closer than you think you are
Only moments from the break of dawn" - Danny Gokey, "Haven't Seen It Yet"
@JDBrew Good call on Zim! Davey made the right call to play Howie over Zim, even though it could have been Zim's final game. And then he inserted Zim into the game at the perfect time.
I have absolutely no doubt in my mind if that is Harper batting in the spot Soto was in that Harper strikes out and we are all here lamenting another home elimination loss, bats getting shut down by a #3 starter and a Giants retread, Scherzer giving up 2 more home runs, having Hader on the ropes who was totally lost trying to find the strike zone and not coming through, and everything else from the last 4 playoff series. Maybe that's why they've lost all those other series?? It was just so great to finally be on the other end of one of these games after suffering through 2012, 2016 & 2017. They could get swept by the Dodgers scoring 0 runs in the series and yes I'd be disappointed at the time but looking back on the season I'd be beyond thrilled on what happened in the season. We'll see how they do against the Dodgers, I think if ANY team beats the Dodgers before the World Series it's the Nats (The Cardinals certainly aren't maybe the Braves), but we will find out. At least now they are playing with house money, absolutely no pressure on them, and they finally got the elimination game monkey off their back, let's see how far they can go. Let's just enjoy the ride and whatever happens from here on out happens!
And also I saw something interesting on Twitter:
Our 8th inning was like Cardinals 9th inning game 5 in '12:
Nats lead basically the whole game.
2 run lead entering the 9th.
Closer comes in and gives up the lead.
Fielding error loses the lead.
I don't even care what happens against the Dodgers. That game felt like a breath of fresh air, exorcising demons of postseasons past. Nats are riding a 9 game win streak, this game was won by the bench (and a lot of luck), bring on LA and lets hope for a real series victory. If it doesn't happen, well at least it was a loss to a 106 win team
lol
That’s a little rough on Harper. I get he’s no longer on the team, but like, he frequently was the only one showing up on offense (Giants series, Cubs series, Dodgers series when he was only one who could get a hit off Kershaw late....) also. Getting a hit off Hader as a lefty is impossible. Hader have up one single to a lefty in 66 ABs this year before Soto. 66! One single! (It was to Joey votto)
1. In the words of Ken Rosenthal tweeting, “That wasn’t a baseball game. That was an exorcism.”
2. Okay can we now agree to stop posting the xFIP stats showing Scherzer is actually DOMINATING more than Strasburg? He literally got shelled tonight and should’ve probably given up more like 5 runs (2 balls went to the track in addition to the two homers plus one rocket right at Eaton and one right at Howie). Verducci did an excellent demo of clips before and after injury showing Max isn’t extending arm on follow through to get same spin and action on his fastball. He needs to get it together if we’re going to keep advancing! But Stras is the ace right now.
3. Pinch hitting Michael A Taylor worked out. But can we agree it was the DUMBEST THING. DAVEY HAS EVER DONE. I could not believe what I was seeing. We need a base runner....and we throw Taylor up there!!!!?
4. It really did feel like the ghosts left in that 8th inning and moved over to the visitors dugout. Consider: a foul ball that wasn’t called one. A broken bat bloop hit perfectly placed. A one in a million error. It really did resemble that bizarre Cubs inning with Max with the dropped 3rd strike, HBP, error, and catchers interference.
The thing I realized last night in the Max vs. Stras debate: if you start Stras, who do you go to if he can only get you 5 or 6 innings? You don't trust Max in relief. We saw the downside of starting Max tonight, but he settled, walked the tightrope a little, and got 5 innings of 3 run ball. Not the outcome we hoped for, but not a disaster.
Granted, Stras was filthy and looked like he could have thrown a CGSO, but you can't expect that. What if he started, gave up 2 through 5 or 6, who are you turning to then? What if then Max comes in and gives up 3? Or some other bullpen arm?
I think this arrangement gave us the best chance of winning. But not so much because Max was the best choice to start. I think it was because Stras was the best choice to come in and get the ball to the closer. He was dealing and I felt like I could breath while he was pitching, knowing that he was going to hold it there. Tell me you would have felt the same with anybody else there, including Max.
@Josh...my thoughts exactly
Had a class until the 7th inning, so I got home for the bottom of the 8th. Just in time to shout until my voice cracked. Regardless of what happens in LA, this has been a good season.
That said, no reason we can't go win it all, right? Stay in the fight, boys!
Well, I'm glad to see that my reverse jinx worked. Honestly, thought they were done the moment Max gave up the dinger to Grandal, it was like, 'Here we go again.' Even still, pinch hitting with Michael A. Taylor against Hader was idiotic. The guy was on the team to pinch run, you carried 3 catchers, pinch hit Gomes. Just so happens that Hader bailed them out. Still doesn't mean it was one of the worst managerial decisions I can remember, but who cares it worked.
Also, I can see merit to starting Scherzer because you have greater confidence in Strasburg coming out of the pen. Wasn't something I'd thought of, now, after the Cubs series and this one, man does Strasburg seem like a big-game pitcher, wow.
Yeah, can we finally put to bed the narrative of him being a wilting flower?
People on here forget that Michael A was a hero in the Cubs series.
@Josh, absolutely. As soon as Stras came in, the crowd could relax during the top half. You could see the snap on his curveball, Brewer knees buckling from the upper deck.
What we could not see, at least from where I was sitting, was the ball getting past the rightfielder. Why is everybody still running? Oh no, Soto's out--but how many runs scored?! Wait a minute, WE HAVE THE LEAD!!!
I guess the argument for starting max makes sense. As given his recent outings you were only really expecting 5 innings out of him anyway. But it’s just hard to say “don’t go with your best pitcher to start an elimination game.” Glad it’s not my decision to make. Just glad my 2 favorite Nats (Strasburg and Zim) could come up big in big spots. I will say, while Soto was a hero last night, getting caught in that rundown was rookie mistake. They had a chance to tack on insurance runs if he stopped at second. The could’ve easily bit them in the butt.
Question for the group: I understand that Soto was trying to draw the throw to 3rd, but was it the right move? Did they really have any possible chance of getting Rendon?
@JW I wouldn't be surprised if Sendley was just waving his arm without thinking, at that point.
I might chalk Soto's out at third to not having a clear idea of how long it took Grisham to get ahold of the ball. It was a weird error that seemed to take him more time than it should have to recover, and I can imagine that from the left side of the field they might have thought the ball went to the corner or something. When I watched it live it seemed like Soto made a dumb mistake, but on replays it looked more defensible. The noise was out of control, the moment was huge. I'm just glad that the other runners were prescient enough to take advantage.
But yeah, I did find myself thinking during the 9th that an extra run would be REALLY nice, and I wish such a big play hadn't ended in such a goofy way.
The other thing about Soto getting thrown out is that if he doesn't and Kendrick gets a hit, maybe people are a lot easier on Gresham going forward. Even though he missed the ball, there's a decent probability that even if he catches it, the Brewers still lose.
Hayzoos Christos. That felt SO GOOD. I have to say, I was ready to post here after the Thames home run, saying how I knew it would turn out this way. But wow. The shot of the crowd and beer flying everywhere looked incredible. Kudos to all you folks who witnessed it in person, I'll definitely be there for one of the DS games.
It's hard not to be romantic about baseball, which some of my fellow soulless automatons might not like. A lot of narratives going on here... Redemption for Dave Martinez, a guy who many wanted fired, managed a good game I think (aside from the MAT pinch hit). Soto, a 20-year old phenom carrying his team to victory in the highest-leverage point of the game. Strasburg possibly passing Max Freaking Scherzer for the team's most dependable pitcher, exorcising his own demons of "not living up the hype" of when he was drafted. Rendon playing possibly his final game as a Nat, in his final at bat, working the count like he does so well to hand it off to Soto, the next star of the team to take his place. MAT contributing! Zimm getting some good luck! And the bullpen (Hudson), sealing the victory. "Let the good times roll!"
9 W's in a row and riding high. See you soon Chavez Ravine.
DM managed a good game, point blank period. No nitpicking allowed on this one! You say MAT pinch hit is a bad move, I say genius, and look at the result. Remember MAT in his last playoff series! The Juice is Loose baby! Leave it alone!
And hey TONY AND STEPHEN! HOW DID YOU LIKE THAT CROWD?! WAS THAT ENOUGH FOR YA?!
Interesting note is that Soto said in his interview that he deliberately enticed the rundown to bait the Brewers into not trying to get Rendon at home. So it may or may not have been the correct decision, but it was an intentional play by Soto thinking in the moment on the basepaths to try to get his team the lead.
(Apparently Davey's logic for using Taylor in that spot was that Taylor was 2-for-2 reaching base in his career against Hader. I'm just going to file that under "thank God that it worked" and leave it for that. Happy for Zim that he got a clutch hit, too, even though it was a sawed-off bloop. The guy needs to get some luck, after all! Ironically, Zim would actually be a good pickup for the Brewers next season, as a platoon partner for Thames.)
The last 20 minutes were fun. I was in section 404, left field foul line. It appeared to me that Soto was going to make third fairly easily, but he pulled up way before the ball got to the infield. With his back to the play he obviously didn't know if the Brewers were going to try and cut Rendon down at the plate, but since Anthony was the go-ahead run it made perfect sense for them to do that if at all possible. In essence getting caught in a rundown was probably unnecessary, but still a very savvy, smart move, erring on the side of giving your team the best chance to grab the lead.
I honestly like our chances against the Dodgers IF the stinking offense will wake up. It's the prospect of facing the gotdang Braves again that worries me. The Dodgers not so much. Seriously. Take all the stupid sabermetrics and cram them where the sun don't shine. We can beat LA in three straight. If I were manager, I'd use Corbin and Sanchez in the Ravine and Max and Stras at home, with Corbin pitching game 5 if necessary. If we lose game 1, you do NOT NOT NOT NOT pitch Max in game 2. Under no friggin' circumstances do you pitch Max in game 2. NO NO NO.
@Bx
I was so impressed with your 1 single in 66 PA stat, I looked it up -- and it's laughably misleading. There have been 9 hits from left handers against Hader, including 5 HR, 2 2b and 1 3b, So, yah, one single. But jeez.
I'm really hoping you saw that stat posted somewhere else and repeated it without verifying...
The actual context is that, of the 480 pitchers who faced at least 50 lefties this year, Hader ranks 63rd with a wOBA of .252.
It was still an amazing moment - Hader is a very good pitcher and it was a huge hit - but we don't work so hard to make Juan Soto myths. The true story is plenty.
Fun facts about MAT
Career playoff OBP - .429
Career OPS - 1.076
OBP against Josh Hader - 1.000
OPS against Josh Hader - 5.0
OBP for month of Sept - .500
OPS for month of Sept - 1.417
He won that Cubs playoff game single handedly with the dinger.
He basically worked a walk... he was unlucky in that an inside ball 4 hit him and the bat at the same time, but he got the call.
It was unorthodox... I was really surprised by it, but it is defensible given his post season, recency and success (albeit limited) against Hader... and most importantly it worked out.
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