Who are the Cardinals? They aren't a team you thought much of during the regular season until all of a sudden they were past the Cubs, in first in the NL Central in a position they'd seemingly never relinquish.
The Cardinals in fact started out red hot (20-10) but a terrible run after that brought them back to 2 games under .500 at the end of May and they were a .500 team at the All-Star break. There was another back in forth with a strong run (12-3) followed by almost an equally weak one (2-8) before the Cards figured it out and basically cruised the rest of the season. (32-12)
Over the course of the season they look like a flawed team the offense doesn't have any standouts and is half average. The rotation has Jack Flaherty at the head and then a bunch of decent arms but no one you immediately worry can shut you down. The pen... the pen is pretty strong. But what's the team look like in the last 60 days?
Paul Goldschmidt found himself in the second half hitting much more like slugger we remember from Arizona. Tommy Edman emerged as a hot bat for the moment, that can be used all over the diamond. Yadier Molina had a renaissance and Kolten Wong rebounded nicely. The offense went from a .720 OPS in the first half to a .757 in the second. From bad to average.
The starter ERA went from 4.33 to 3.15 (better than the Nats in the 2nd half) Flaherty was unhittable (0.91 ERA! 0.715 WHIP) as Hudson - hard to hit and Mikolas (great K/BB) had very solid second halves and Carpenter and Wacha were very reliable as well, though not in a way that makes you excited. The relievers held firm at being very good. Gallegos, Webb, especially finished strong.
Another thing to consider is the defense. It's rated second in defensive efficiency in the NL. First in FLD%. All the fancy stats love them.*
So basically the first half Cards were a team with a bad offense, ok starting pitching, and great relief - that got them to .500. The second half Cards were a team with an average offense, great overall starting pitching, and great relief. That got them a division title.
What do the Nats need to do to beat the Cardinals?
1) Aces gotta ace. This is going to hold for as far as the Nats go and it will only get harder as the Nats get less breaks and these arms, ridden in starts and in relief, get more and more tired. But they have to do it. The middle of the pen is weak and it has to be exposed as little as possible. It may hold here and there but if the Nats are digging into it 3 or 4 times that's a big problem
2) Beat up on Wainwright. Wainwright is "crafty veteran" which is code for tries to use control to get through things. He doesn't walk anyone but he doesn't strike anyone out and you can hit him, you can hit him hard. Nats need to win that game (G2) which should be a pitching mismatch in theory.
3) Stake out leads. The Cards pen is quite capable of holding onto a lead and the Nats can't hope their manager gets brainlock about matching up like Roberts did. If the Nats go into the 5th/6th down its likely the game will end that way. Guys like Mikolas and Hudson are good , but they aren't aces so the Nats should be looking to get 2-3-4 runs off of them while the Nats pitchers hold STL down.
4) Hope they get bad Carlos Martinez. He's an enigma who looks great and looks terrible depending. He looked terrible against the Braves. Let's hope that continues.
Bonus : What do the Cards need to do to beat the Nats?
1) Beat up Sanchez. Yeah it's late in the season but aces are aces for a reason. You can't rule out a dominant performance at any time. The Nats have 3 aces which makes it imperative you take it to the one non-ace out there. That he's likely to be forced to start twice if the series goes long makes it even more important
2) Step on the neck of the aces when you have a chance - Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin are aces but Stras and Corbin are at career highs in IP, Scherzer had an injury near year's end and they are all being asked to do a lot more. You've seen some wobbly performances from them with Strasburg and Scherzer being homer prone and Corbin getting wild. But as aces do they recovered and held the games close. Don't let them. Get 3, 4, 5 runs in that inning and get into that pen as early as you can.
3) Pitch around Rendon, Soto too until you establish you got a loogy you can get him - the Nats have a great offense but it's deceptively top heavy with a 6-7-8 that shouldn't be too problematic. You can't pitch around 1-5 but you can make Turner, Eaton, and a Kendrick that's looked dead tired in the field beat you instead of letting an MVP and a star do it.
4) Run on Suzuki all day every day - Yan Gomes is a decent defender but hasn't hit, meaning Suzuki plays most of the game. Suzuki though can't throw anyone out. The Cardinals like the SB both straight up and being crafty about it (Molina has 6!). Run on Suzuki. Get guys in scoring position, Take the pitcher's focus off the batter.
Let's go!
*Nats are somewhere between average and "not BAD"
47 comments:
Nats pitchers aren't particularly good at holding runners either. They're gonna run all over Suzuki.
If the Nats can win tonight though they'd be in a great position, with Max-Stras-Corbin (I assume) in games 2-3-4.
In the World Series Howie can DH...but we gotta get there first!
Yall remember when Papelbon choked out Bryce? Crazy times.
Harper:
It's your first NLCS with the Nats, too. What are you doing to prepare?
I think Harper is preparing by rooting for the Yankees!
I am really worried about the running game. Hopefully Nats pitchers will limit walks.
I think the Nats will probably win one in St Louis (likely game 2) then hopefully take 2 out of 3 at home and then try to win one more on the road in St Louis again. Probably 50/50 who wins.
If St Louis wins the first two games, things will get dicey with Flaherty on the mound in game 3.
I want a Nats-Yankees WS just to see how Harper handles it. There's no soulless automaton in that series
Who's on the $(%@=!! NLCS roster? None of the places I looked are updated. Is Robles back? Is Fedde replacing someone in the pen that should never be used?
Is Elias getting into this series!?
Rosters are not out yet. Nats twitter probably will have them first, maybe news tab on Nationals website.
Thanks.
Nats are going to win in 5, maybe 6.
I hope Joe Ross is on the roster!
Thanks Harper, I feel considerably worse about this series now. The only thing I feel reasonably good about is that if the Cardinals struggled to score against the Barves in games 1-4, it ain't gonna get easier against the Nats. Also, no cross country flights will be easier on the aging bodies.
I agree though, the Nats need to jump out early. If they do, DM needs to make defensive changes, like Dozier for Kendrick a lot earlier, because Howie was an absolute clank in that series.
Finally, the Nats offense is going to really depend on Turner and Eaton. If I'm the Cardinals, I'm making anyone other than Rendon beat me. He's been looking very hitterish as the kids say.
My main concern is coming out flat tonight. Nats had two hits in Game 1 of NLDS, after flying to LA the night before.
@FeelingMiserableSince2012NLDS
Lets stay as underdogs. I hate when bookies and everyone else start favoring us and series ending in 6. Let us focus on 1-0 and #stayinfight mentality. Let's go 8-6 from here on to reach the goal.
Go NATS!
@Cautiously Pessimistic -- that would also really entertain me, at least temporarily. But probably not for long because of the (likely) event that the Yankees would win. Reading the celebrations of the opposing teams fans after a tough loss is serious salt in the wounds. Basically, I'd have to give this blog up for a week which would suck.
The good news is that Yankees-Nats is pretty unlikely -- I see Nats-Cards as a 55-45 advantage Cards and I think the Astros have the Yankees' number, maybe 60-40. So I think we're only talking 18% probability here.
Nats - Yankees would have me badmouthing everything about DC and the Nats so it would be fun (though honestly all I need is the Yankees to MAKE the WS to keep the various streaks alive - I've seen plenty and it hasn't been that long since the last one. Nats fans should also be rooting for that though bc the Astros don't strike out and work the most walks and are a terrible match-up for any team trying to avoid using their pen. Also that rotation doesn't lead to Nats staking out any leads. (Yankees are more bombers who win by hitting homers then holding you off with a great pen - not a good match-up either but better for the Nats)
SM - I'm preparing by trying to get my wife to understand how much baseball I'll have to watch
@ Mr. T - would be nice if we could steal some bases too. Turner should be swing 70+ every year. Not sure why he doesn't go more often.
Separately, everywhere I'm reading has the Nats favored to win this series. We went 1-5 vs the Cards this season, but most were some close games. I'm so thrilled with our Nats and how far they made it, but I'm worried about this series. Cards seem to have a little more fight in them. Good defense, smart baseball.. could be tough.
@Harper I'm absolutely rooting for Nats-Yankees because the Astros are really, really good. I was hoping the Rays would get lucky and beat them, but no luck. Honestly, I don't see how anyone is going to beat the Astros.
Also, we'll get to talk about all of the bad things about New York and there are a LOT of them, I mean, the only thing that would limit us is time.
Nationals went 2-5 against the Cardinals. Outscored 17-26.
A big key for the Nats to win the series is to take 1 of the first 2 games in St. Louis. They NEVER play well in St. Louis it seems like, and with the homefield the Cards have, the Nats, even if they sweep all 3 games in DC which is a hard ask, they'll have to win a game in St. Louis to win the series. Unfortunately, in the 7 game series it will be more difficult to hide bad relievers, which is why I'm hoping Strickland/or Suero get replaced for either a Fedde/Ross a long reliever type that can pitch multiple innings in case one of the SP's bomb. Martinez isn't going to be able to use his SP's as much in the bullpen this series as he did in the Dodgers series.
The key for the Cards is to find a way to get this to a 7th game. They'll have home field, post season pedigree, winner-take-all magic, and most importantly, the best 2nd half pitcher of this season on the mound. They'd have to like their chances if this went the distance.
My prediction: Nats in 6. They'll win 1 of the 2 games in St. Louis (most likely game 2 because I don't think they have ever won a game 1 of a series), lose the Flaherty/Strasburg game in game 3, because that comes down to the bullpen's and the Cards is better, but they'll win the remaining games. Should be a fun series.
Ole PBN, not that it matters but the Cards were actually 5-2
3-1 in DC late April-early May when the Nats were floundering around and than 2-1 in St. Louis, just a couple weeks ago in mid September.
Maybe I'm missing something, but the more I look at the Cardinals Lineup, I can't help but wonder how they made it this far. I mean it's basically a lineup of Eaton's and Suzuki's, plus Paul Goldschmidt. The Nats have to win the non Flaherty games, as long as they can do that they should be fine. Of course, St. Louis always seems like they're able to win in the postseason with some kind of voodoo magic.
Also, one thing I keep thinking is that if Nats starting pitchers have a weakness, it's giving up homeruns. There's been speculation that mlb changed the ball for the playoffs, however, it's also true that it gets colder this time of year and the ball doesn't travel as far. I wonder if that could be a big help to the Nats starting pitchers?
I'm dreading a Nats-Yankees WS (though I would take it if offered right now). Like Harper I live in Yankee land so I'm in this situation where if the Yankees win I gotta watch all my friends celebrate at my misery, and if the Nats win there's very few people I can gloat to without coming off as an ass. That being said I agree I'd rather the Nats face the Yankees over the Astros in terms of just win probability. I feel more confident (less unconfident?) with Nationals pitching against the Yankee lineup than I do with Nationals hitting against Astro pitching.
I think Harper would do a fine job remaining impartial on the blog. Remember he's writing, not talking, and he is a soulless automaton after all.
@Ric/Max David - my mistake. Weading is hawd.
@ JVLumley, Ozuna, playing in his first career post season is really the only one hitting the cover off the ball. He had 4 multi-hit games in the 5 NLDS games vs. the Braves including 2 home runs in game 4. No one else is really that hot. Molina had the game-tying and game-winning RBI's in game 4 but hasn't done much with the bat, Dexter Fowler was like 1-16 at the top of the order before game 5. Paul DeJong I don't think had a hit in the NLDS. Work around Goldy & Ozuna, make someone else beat you.
Rosters just came out:
https://twitter.com/Nationals/status/1182743965252161536
Elias and Guerra have been added to the bullpen. Hudson is on the paternity list???
Strictland is gone.
Yep - likely to be one game. Apparently Suero will get bumped once he returns.
Yeah what the hell Hudson?! Plan ahead! As someone with a baby on the way, I totally purposely planned to have my child between Christmas and New Years so as not to impact my coworkers.
@JWLumley said: "Also, one thing I keep thinking is that if Nats starting pitchers have a weakness, it's giving up homeruns. There's been speculation that mlb changed the ball for the playoffs, however, it's also true that it gets colder this time of year and the ball doesn't travel as far. I wonder if that could be a big help to the Nats starting pitchers?"
The Nationals have hit 231 home runs, and the Cardinals have hit 210 home runs. (Nats +21)
Nationals pitchers gave up 202 home runs, and the Cardinals gave up 191 home runs. (Nats -11)
So a dead ball/cold weather (slightly) favors St. Louis.
I think that's an oversimplification because the Nats still have good hitters who can string a rally together. Scherzer seems like he only gives up runs via the longball, but sure it's as simple as subtracting one from the other.
Home plate ump has a pretty uneven zone tonight, but not in typical fashion. Giving everything a few inches off the left side of the plate, and nothing at all off the right side. Maybe he only has one shoe on?
I'm telling you, these guys are an infomercial for robot umps . That borderline strike to Soto when the guy can't find the plate changed the game.
Also Eaton is almost too the point where you have to think about benching him.
How do you delete comments? Asking for a friend.
11 men LOB, through 7.wow.
Great start from Sanchez and right thing for DM to do. Get him out on first baserunner.
One hit over 7 and 2/3. That'll do, Anibal.
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Anibal has, through the late summer until tonight, been sort of a secret weapon for the Nats. What an incredible performance.
The Cards made an ace of the only non-ace they will face. That was the opposite of their plan iirc.
Good thing for the Nats that Doo held it down. From what I've heard, Hudson will, like all new fathers, be extremely well rested and not at all sleep-deprived for the upcoming games.
Damn, Anibal channeling those days when he was a legit ace back in Detroit! And good Doo stepping it up as well!
Great game. The 7 game series, especially getting game 1, gives us a little cushion to dip into the bullpen if we have to. Not saying I want to see lots of Rainey and Rodney, but with some cushion I'd rather see them than a starter in relief. Let the starters settle in, get some rest and be heros again if we get to the world series and need them to be heros.
@Harper.
(1) You didn’t really go into this possibility, but Sánchez shutting down the Cardinals in STL is.....as big a game 1 win as I can imagine if you’re the Nats. Now you have a chance to step on this team’s throat with Max vs Waino. I believe the Nats are simply a better team than the Cardinals. They can always lose a series like that but the thing is....if you think the Nats are the better team, it’s tough to see them losing 4 out of 5, which is what a win tomorrow by Max would mean.
(2) man, do they miss Robles. I really hope he’s back tomorrow but I think more likely they will use the day off and warmer weather and he will be back in DC.
(3) i would actually stick with Gomes in this series. The cards scratch runs across and u have to try to do your best to hold the stealing to a minimum. Also Gomes seems like he’s having one of his brief “hey I can make contact!” moments. Which occasionally happen.
Raise your hand if you thought Anibal was going to pitch 7.2 innings of 1-hit ball? Me neither.
I went to bed after the 6th inning, concerned that the Cards would finally get to Sanchez/short-handed 'pen. I had read a FG article about how Sanchez has a 7.15 FIP the third time through the order, highest among 93 pitchers with at least 25 innings of facing a batter for the third time. Yikes!
So, how big was it for Sanchez to only leave 4 outs for the bullpen, especially since Hudson was not available? Huge!
Hats off to Sanchez. I watched the video of him pitching the near no-no back in 2013 with the Tigers. He had 95 on the heater and 87 on the breaking ball. He has totally re-invented himself and is still getting it done at his age. And props for Rizzo for believing that Anibal's 2018 season wasn't a fluke
@G Cracka X. The one thing about Aníbal that really made me like him against cardinals is the cardinals are the worst offensive team in MLB vs off speed stuff/non fastballs. They seem to struggle against junk ballers in a crazy way. I never thought he would go like 8, but I thought he would do well, also....the thing is, Sanchez has literally been better than Max since he came off the IL in May. He’s pitched to like a 3.00 ERA or something since then.
St Louis crowd giving standing ovation to Annibal Sanchez was classic. It says a lot about them. I am expecting the same about my brethren in DC. Let's move past Bryce. Stop trolling him. We are better than that. We have a very special team and let's cheer them.
Go Nats!
@BxJ Interesting! That bodes well for us when Sanchez' spot comes up again.
@Anon Yes and Amen! Bryce did great things for us. no need to troll.
It's probably too late for it now, but I would have appreciated a "fun with arbitrary endpoints" analysis comparing these two teams through various stretches of the season. Everyone is enthralled with the narrative of the Nats from their lowest point of the season in May to the World Series, and I've seen some analysis showing the Nats are the better team since then, but the only reason that date is significant is because it was the low point of the Nats season.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter now. The only thing that matters is whether the Nats are better for 4 out of 7 games over the next two weeks. GO NATS!
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