lets get straight into it
The Astros won the battle versus Max. They scored on him early and wore him out quick. But Max limited the losses of the battle by pitching as well as he could. He kept the ball down which made it harder for the Astros to get the big hit and big inning and kept the Astros at two.
On the flipside, the Nats on their end won the battle against Cole and he wasn't able to mitigate the damage like Max. He was more dominant but didn’t aim to keep the ball down. That meant his mistakes were left up and the Nats crushed them. In the fifth he made a more crucial mistake though. He lost his focus against the bottom of the lineup. Instead of cruising through Suzuki and Robles, he walked Suzuki on five pitches and gave up a solid hit to Victor on an 0-2 pitch. You don’t do either if you are bearing down. Cole also had an awkwardly passive AB against Suzuki first time out which made me think that maybe he’s still NLing it a bit. Using 8-9 to reset for the harder part of the line-up. Anyway, both guys on and the line-up turning over and it’s a question now if how many runs will score. Turns out it’s three. Two were driven in because of a great piece of hitting by Soto driving an outside pitch against the left field wall* to bring home two. It could have been a game ending inning, Cole really lost more focus as things got worse, but Correa made a fantastic play to rob Howie of a hit.
The damage was done and this was important because a lead tightens up bats as you head to late innings. The Astros are already a bit off their game in the playoffs. They are striking out around 10 times a game as opposed to the 7 times per during the regular season. That's pitching, yes, it's also pressure. At this point the question became if the Nats limited bullpen would come through and if the Nats could score any more runs. The latter was answered no as the Nats looked pretty feeble down the stretch of the game. But the pen did just enough to make things work. Corbin was wild. He might have thrown 3 strikes in his 20+ pitches but the Astros chased.** Rainey put men on and gave up a homer but the order was how you want it - homer first. Hudson, continued being shaky but got the big out. Doolittle continues being pretty good and the Astros missed his mistakes (watch that Correa out and cringe at what could have been).
The big play late in the game was the Springer flyball that a few feet over could have been an easy out or a homer depending on which direction you were going. Instead it ended up at one of those stupid manufactured angles in the outfield and Eaton misplayed a tough catch (which he should have made) into a double. Tough play, should have been made, lucky it wasn't the ballgame.
I said that that was the worst way a win could have gone for the Nats without injury. Max threw a ton and didn't look good. The bullpen got used a lot meaning the Astros got a lot of looks at these guys. Corbin was used possibly throwing off the starting rotation. Rainey, Corbin and Hudson all looked off and now have been used, starting the process of tiring out arms. Rainey in fact might have pitched himself right off the bullpen rotation, leaving the Nats with a crazy thin pen.
But still it's a win. Whatever disadvantages all the above give the Nats for the remainder of the series, they pale in comparison to the advantage a win gives them.
What the Nats need now is Strasburg to go deep. They don't even have to win tonight. They just need Strasburg to go 7ish innings and that'll be good. If the Astros work him like Max that'll be tough and I'm more wary pushing Strasburg deep into a game than Max (I'm also very much interested in what the last nonsense push by Davey last start might have done to Stras, rest or no rest). If Strasburg doesn't go deep - well I guess hope for a blowout loss so the good arms don't have to get used again***
The Nats are in good position now but the Astros can't be counted out. This isn't a Cardinal team that looked defeated and after G1 you had to figure out like a puzzle how they could come back. This team could roll off 4 in a row. Win tonight, or at the very least set it up to make it harder for them to pull off something like that in DC.
*In a normal park Brantley tracks that down. Live by stupid park dimensions, die by stupid park dimensions.
**had a big argument about this on Twitter - basically my take is the book on Corbin is swing high, take low to start. If he locates his fastball low - Uh oh for you. If not you keep taking low because his slider is usually not a strike. There were articles about this earlier in the year. He was not locating fastballs but the Astros, aggressive and backed into a corner, swung like mad men and bailed him out.
***or ok - a crazy blowout win. Stras is pulled giving up 5 with 105 IP in 4+ innings but the Nats are up 20-5!
70 comments:
Re: the first foot note, it also sounded like the wall was made of sheet metal when Brantley banged into it. Dumb!
I know I shouldn't look ahead but it's hard not to. Presumably, with Corbin and Sanchez flip flopped in G3-4, I guess this sets up Sanchez to go twice, the second time being G7?
Gutsy win last night, all around enjoyable baseball. Lock Soto up now, he is something truly special.
Brantley's glove also got stuck in the wall.
So....you're sayin' there's a chance!
R-L-R-L-R-L and Eaton bunting, even though unsuccessfully, got into Cole's head. Astros have no Lefties to defend that. Go NATS!
Am I the only one who thinks it's insane to suggest that Rainey could have pitched himself out of the bullpen rotation? I mean, he's a rookie who came on in a big moment and did manage to get an out. He's not good but no one in the 'pen is so it's not like they have anyone else (I do not want to hear anything about Rodney's postseason ERA). He'll be back out there, every game if need be.
If we have a 3-run or less lead at the end of the 7th or later, Taylor needs to be inserted for Eaton. I have no doubt in my mind that MAT makes that catch.
@Chris - they really shouldve put MAT in center in Robles in right. You dont want to see Robles hamstring pop with the issues hes been having. Hes looked good but safer to put MAT there
There no ballpark in America where the left fielder makes that catch. The ball was already by him as he turned to retreat. That's just a clean double to left, not a ballpark double. In some parks it may turn into a triple depending upon the bounce.
Folks, lets stay underdogs until we win WS. This was a team win. This team has played as a group and not individuals since May.
I am not here to do Monday morning QB. DM pushed all the right buttons.
#STAYINFIGHT Go Nats!
I don't disagree with your comment about the crazy layout of the park. However, part of what makes Houston such a great hitting team is playing half of their games in that bandbox. I spent the entire game worried a fly ball might=home run. I give Max credit. He was really trying to keep the ball down and was battling control issues all night. I would love to see them win again tonight. Greinke has always pitched well against them, so it is not a given they will beat him up in game 3. I think last night was almost worst case scenario for the Nats and they still won. Max only goes 5 and gives up 2 in the first inning. They have to bridge to the later innings as a result. Rendon and Kendrick went 0-8. All of that should add up to a game 1 loss. Am I the only person that thought the umpire had a pretty tight strike zone all night? There is an interesting article in the Athletic that breaks down the home plate umpires for each game. The guy tonight has a larger zone but was HP umpire when Strasburg got shelled by the D'backs. We'll see.
I think the key going forward will be rain this weekend. If it rains Friday or Saturday, then you are looking at Cole going in game 4 on regular rest. That isn't the end of the world but could be trouble. I guess that also means that Scherzer could go in game 4 and Corbin stays in the pen for now?? I think if the Nats can win 1 of the next 2 then hopefully they win the Astro's bullpen game in game 4. You're looking at a 3-1 lead at that point. Just win tonight. 1-0 today.
@ multiple anonymous dragons
YES! Why TF is MAT riding the pine when we are defending leads in the 9th? Eaton and Soto make me sooooo nervous chasing down Hudson and Doolittle's fly balls.
I agree that a win is GREAT! And I agree that the BP has already been exposed more than you'd like because Max only went 5. The SP have been consistently going 6/7 in the post-season (averaging 6, with four where they went 5, three where they went 6, and four where they went at least seven). Houston's approach will mean more pitches, and more BP. A laugher tonight would be great...or Astros lose focus and swing more and Stras lasts through seven and the BP can reset.
The Nats were saved in the NLDS by the off days and that helped last night, too. This approach has limits but it could work out. But you are right, Harper, Houston is good, and this their third WS, so they are less likely to tighten up under the pressure. Meanwhile, the Nats continue to compete and seem way past the deer in the headlights syndrom of past years. DM is no strategic genius, but I give him credit for keeping things on an even keel.
Houston lost Game 1 at home to the Yankees, yet here they are, so could be a long series. Go Nats!
Robles made two bad plays. The non-catch where the glove flew out of his hand did not lead to any runs. The throw to first instead of second may have led to a run. I'm also of the opinion that he wasn't positioned in the correct location to back up Eaton on the Eaton non-catch. Robles was also very close to the wall, and I think he should have been positioned further from the wall to play any carom.
That being said, if he was going to go 1-4, his single in the fifth was vital to our big inning.
@elchupinazo, I think it's fine if you think Rainey should remain in the mix, or that he should be back out there, "every game if need be." But to answer your specific question, it is NOT insane for others to suggest Rainey could have pitched himself out of the bullpen. (I personally would shelf him. He's got great stuff, but his 1.5 WHIP has been consistent all season. And a team like Houston will make you pay for allowing so many base runners. And I don't trust anyone, including Doolittle and Hudson, to strand inherited runners.)
DM did a terrific job. Took Rainey out at the right time; took Hudson out at the right time.
If Eaton is going to do a sacrifice bunt, he should square up and just bunt it. No running starts.
I'll be that we say Rodney in a tight game before we see Rainey again. Pitcher has got to throw strikes with a 3 run (okay, 2 run) lead.
Soto is amazing. Let's just hope he doesn't go down the path of Andruw Jones.
I still expect Corbin to pitch Game 3. Last night was his bullpen day.
Harper - phenomenal write-up. I know you get complimented a lot here in the comments (as you should) but honestly, I've always enjoyed reading this blog and you deserve to feel good about the quality product you put forth.
To me there's two ways to look at this win (besides the natural "better to win than lose"). First, the Nats stole one from the Astros. Feels weird saying that with Scherzer on the mound, but Cole is supposed to be an automatic win for them, so much so that it feels like the Nats stole one even with Scherzer pitching. Now the Astros either need to steal one back in the 4th v. 4th, or dominate the more 50-50 games (i.e. go 3-1 in the Verlander-Strasberg and Greinke-Corbin ones). Both are very possible, but they need to do one of them. Second - and this is similar to your point - the Nats had to win this game because they threw everything they had at the Astros. Their best lineup. Scherzer. Their best starter not pitching the next game. Their best 3 bullpen pitchers. If the Nats lost, even if this was a game they were "supposed" to lose going in, it almost feels like winning 4 of the next 6 is impossible. There's nothing left. They gave everything they had and still lost.
I see your point about giving the Astros extended looks. I didn't even think about that. If the Nats want to win the series, even if their starters dominate, they will need the pen to come up big for a few innings each game. I hope 4 innings of almost doesn't turn into crooked numbers later in the series.
I think we still see Corbin game 3. Davey has been using his starters on their throw day all playoffs.
There were *two* big plays late in the game. The first was that Springer fly ball, which could have been an out (catch), 2 runs (HR), 1 run (happened), or 0 runs [no catch but no funky bounce, keeping the man on second from scoring (he was standing on 2nd in case Eaton caught it)]. The second was Turner's stop to keep a run from scoring with 2 outs in the same inning. If that ball gets through, the game is likely tied.
I thought Rainey looked decent, but he couldn't get batters to chase on some good sliders (so why then did Suzuki call 3 in a row when Altuve wasn't biting?). If the Astros lay off the slider, then you can only pitch him against the bottom of the lineup, where they won't mash his 100 mph fastball.
What a difference a win makes re: narrative. Everyone is talking about Turner's sliding stop to keep it a one run game. If the Astros won in the 9th, no one would be talking about it, and everyone instead talking about Correa's diving stop to keep the Nats' lead at 3.
I agree with the comments re: put MAT in late, Davey doing some great bullpen managing.
At this point, I'm expecting Joe Ross will pitch in a big spot before this series in done, to be honest. Houston's lineup has the second best wRC+ of all time after only the '27 Yankees. They're 10 points higher OBP than the Nats and the Nats are best in the National League. We saw how that worked out last night.
Great, great game and glad we somehow pulled out a win. Three to go.
Can't believe Strasburg will be pitching for the Nationals in the World Series tonight against the greatest lineup in integrated baseball history. Been waiting for this day for over a decade.
Stupid things from the game: Eaton's bunt. Please. Stop.
Robles is still not making good decisions. That throw was nuts.
Rendon: 0-4
Kendruck: 0-4
Those guys need at least a 1-4, even a single if this going to work out. Otherwise they walk Soto.
If the ump is calling a slightly lower strike zone, Rainey's slider would have been hard to lay off. I wouldn't count him out especially if the low strike zone has been established.
Just a fantastic win last night. It looked like the Nats were doomed when the Stros jumped on top and Max had to leave early. But the offense did just enough and the BP did just enough and Washington has its first World Series win since before any of us were born. As someone who watched games at Griffith Stadium as a kid and at DC Stadium as a teenager and then for 30 years with nada, it was, I must admit, a bit emotional.
And as a bonus the Caps beat the Flames last night.
Have to echo JC. Rainey wasn't getting "pinched" per se, but he was barely missing and that slider had quite the snap on it. I wouldn't call his outing bad by any means on a pitch by pitch basis, but of course you need to get results. He's definitely not out of the BP rotation
Agree it would be nice to see MAT in for defense in the late innings once in a while. But wtf was up with Robles last night? Definitely seemed like he was way over-amped, or terrified, or panicked, every time a ball was hit to the outfield. I hope it was just WS opening jitters from a 22 year old and he gets over it by tonight.
I know everybody is second guessing but Please! All of a sudden Robles is a bad fielder who makes dumb decisions and almost cost us the game? Without Robles we don't win last night's game. Howie Kendrick 0-4. All he can do is hit the ball hard. Correa made a great play to keep it close. The Astros came to win too. Eaton's bunt - don't do it? Really. nobody out, Turner the burner on second. We have a chance to get up one in the first inning against the Second Coming (Cole...or at least that what everybody said). I'm glad Eaton knows there are times when a bunt can be effective. Didn't work, applaud the effort. We don't win without Eaton last night. Rainey sucks now? Skinner took a 98 mph fastball at the knees out of the stadium. Hats off to Skinner. I'll take my pitcher throwing to that spot 8 days a week. Nothing happens in a vacuum. You have to take the entire package and the warts that may appear.
Yeah, my take here is that Rainey got squeezed on a couple pitches in the first walk, and the second walk was mostly Bregman taking a lot of really tough sliders. He still seems like the clear 3rd best reliever in this pen (though, I'm fine giving him a shorter (i.e. one walk) leash).
I'm frankly a little more worried by the fact that all of Hudson's misses (and it seems like there's one per at-bat lately) are middle-middle. He's gotten away with them so far, but hard to imagine that continues for too much long.
Max didn't have command at the edges. I think it was more about him than the Astros. Once you can't hit edges and have limited offspeed command, MLB hitters can lay off your offspeed stuff and look for center cut pitches. He also looked like he was over-throwing his offspeed pitches. Many (most?) were easily reconizeable as balls right out of his hand. Suzuki was insanely good back there blocking. Corbin I think made his offspeed stuff look good for longer stretches of the pitch vs Max where it was clearly a bad pitch instantly. Hopefully we get "free and easy" Max for Game 5 back in DC. He looked winded and laboring right away.
I wouldn't bail on Rainey just yet. That was a major spot for him to get his first World Series appearance (on road, no less). That said, I might shelve him until we are back in DC Friday to make appearance #2 a bit more friendly.
Feel good that we have Stras tonight. The Astros hopefully will be pressing if we can get a few knocks against Verlander. Remember as a favorite (they are a heavy fave again tonight in Vegas), the pressure mounts every inning where you're "not doing what you're supposed to be doing" (namely winning). Let's keep that heat on full blast....
@Anon, there are times when the bunt can be effective, say when you have a very bad hitter up there, and you're trying to move a guy into scoring position. Eaton is not a bad hitter. Turner was already in scoring position, AND he's fast enough to score from second on practically any base hit. Having Eaton bunt there is basically saying you can't trust your #2 hitter to even pull a groundball to the right side.
That aside, DM had a great game.
@Harper I think you’re looking a little too hard for things to be concerned about. Rainey didn’t pitch himself out of a spot. Is anyone more confident in Suero or Rodney because of last night? Rainey may not have had a good outing, but Suero and Rodney didn’t get better by sitting there. Worried about Stras’ pitch count last time out? He’s had 8 days rest at this point... if there is anything to worry about it the long rest, not how he feels after his last outing which was over a week ago.
I think worrying how guys “look” at this this stage of the season is misplaced. We do that in April. We do that in the summer. We can do that heading into the postseason. We do that because we’re trying to project how our team will fare against stiff competition when it matter most. We’re in the WS now! All bets are off. Is anyone going to be disappointed if we win four ugly games against the Astros? If we win the last game of the season, there is no more analysis on what to fix, because nothing is broken.
Lastly, to echo some others, Trea’s stop on that ground ball was a HUGE moment in the game.
Despite the narrative arc of the game, it felt like the nats weren't getting 'tight' which is huge.
The Correa diving stop was really huge because I felt that the at 6-2 Cole was borderline out of the game as he was melting down (notice he gave up another hit in the next inning too then got a massive double play from zimm). This would have had multiple good trickle down effects as the Houston bullpen would have been into the game a bit earlier and 85 plus pitches is still enough to prevent Cole coming back on short rest really comfortably.
More than anything, a win is a win! Let's take two in houston, one is good but I want more!
Mr T. - A bad hitter is not going to lay down a bunt against Cole. Period. You want to jump on top in every game given the chance. The odds of Turner scoring from 3rd with 1 out is high. It changes the narrative immediately that Cole is destined to pitch a shutout. A good bunt requires the fielder to instantly make three crucial acts. Field it cleanly, decide where to throw and make a good throw. I know it's old school, but the Nats are an old school team. I make that bunt call ten times out of ten.
A different context but the principle is the same:
Last spring, when the heavy underdog Toronto Raptors opened the finals in Golden State, the fervent wish was to steal a win on the opponent's turf.
The Raptors took Game 1. Only later was it revealed what Kawhi Leonard said after the game: "F**k it. Let's take them both."
And they did.
You are factually incorrect. There is a higher probability of scoring with a runner on second and no outs than with a runner on third with one out. That fact about averages must be adjusted for the specific players, but in this case that's even worse. Cole is hard to bunt against and Eaton is good at hitting and walking. Another fact (I triple checked, could still be wrong) is that Eaton was 9 for 22 in bunt attempts in 2019. That's insanely good (and supports you and cuts against my argument).
I don't hate the small ball out of hand but I think that was the wrong opportunity to try it. You've got Trea on second, nobody out with a LHH in the box. Let him swing away and put it in play behind the runner. Sure there's plenty that could go wrong; K, popup, IF lineout. But any grounder or flyball to the right side accomplishes moving the runner. You also just might get a basehit (that's still a potential outcome right?). Getting ahead early was the goal but I think there's more ways to get there by letting Eaton hit away.
@WiredHK - Regarding Max not having control of the dges . . . If the white rectangle can be trusted, there were several pitches that were right where he wanted them - e.g. high and inside the rectangle - that were called for balls. Then some that were outside called a ball the first time and a strike the second time.
Some of his misses (and hits) were the umpire, I think. Or maybe Suzuki was trying to get the call and that threw the umpire off.
FWIW, I got really, really nervous in the 6th inning. They pulled through, and that's what matters - ugly or not.
You can only call it factually incorrect if you use correct facts. Stats from regular season are meaningless in the playoffs. Stats using the average mlb player vis a vis the elite is meaningless. Runs in the playoffs create pressure and stress unlike that created in the average run of the mill game. When I coached I preached "make them make a play". I know i'm an old guy but nothing has changed that philosophy.
Re: Juan Soto vs Andruw Jones. Soto already has 2 seasons of .400+ OBP to Jones's 0, and has matched Jones's career total of seasons with an OPS .900+ in his first two seasons.
@Anon: outs are precious. Why give up an out? Yeah, the fielder has to field it cleanly, decide where to throw and throw him out--but a major league infielder does that every time. I think what happened is Davey thought, "Rendon has hit like 15 sac flies this postseason," so he wanted to get Turner to 3rd to make that happen, and figured an out was worth trading for that possibility. Which is dumb, because the chance of each of those things happening is less than the chance that Turner could score from second with nobody out and the heart of the order coming up.
Eaton should not have bunted, and I believe that insisting he should have has more to do with wanting to be "old school" than actually thinking critically about the situation.
First of all (and this is beyond the point but it's a peeve of mine), people throw around the word "old school" as if it means "good". How exactly are the Nats "old school"? Anon you're not the only person to claim this, but really - how? Every single one of their pitchers pitches to K and not to contact. They pitch starters out of the pen their throw day. They take certain pitchers out based on how many times they've gone through the lineup. They shift. They shuffle bullpen roles based on who is the hot hand. They hired a new manager based on his work with Maddon of all people. There's this stubborn idea, particularly among older people, that whenever a team does something like going first to third on a single with less than two outs that they're "old school" even though ever modern metric says it's a good thing to do that. Ok, rant over.
The reason why you swing away there is because your chances of moving the runner over by bunting isn't that much higher than by swinging away. Eaton is a lefty and Turner is fast. Pretty much any ball he pulls that's not a pop up advances the runner. I'm not running any calculations but I think the chances of advancing Turner is pretty darn equal in both scenarios - might as well go for a hit.
(some new posts while I was writing the last one):
Anon just to be clear I'm not disagreeing with you that the first run in this game is more important than normal (in the regular season you definitely go for a crooked number in the first inning but you're right, this isn't the regular season). I'm saying I don't think a bunt increases the chances of that run nearly enough to give the other team a free out.
My random thoughts about last night's game, FWIW:
1. Ryan Zimmerman hitting the early and LONG dinger against Cole was HUGE. It shattered the myth that Cole was invincible, and it gave the Nationals reassurance that it was early in a long game and we were now on the track going forward. It was 100% appropriate that the first ever Nationals World Series homer was hit by the first National draftee.
2. I agree wholeheartedly with mike k that Suzuki should have stopped calling for the slider from Rainey once it was clear the Astros weren't going to bite on it. In fact, I was screaming at him through the TV to stop calling that pitch. I'm still not sure why he couldn't hear me. Everyone else in Manassas did. Rookies I know are reluctant to shake off a veteran catcher, but..........
3. Skinner hit a good pitch. That was not a Rainey mistake over the middle of the plate. It wasn't painting the corner, but it was down and in and usually a pitch that jams the batter into a weak floater if there's contact at all. I'm not throwing Rainey out of the equation because he gave that one up. Sooner or later it is a virtual certainty that the much maligned bullpen beyond Rainey, Huddy, and Doo is going to have to see some time. Might as well buckle up and hope we survive the ride.
4. The recipe for success remains the same: starters go seven and offense score some runs. We had to fire some extra ammo last night. I've been wondering all day if we shot our entire wad winning one game. I hope not. If Stras can make seven innings tonight, or even better, eight or nine, we'll be ok. Anibal Sanchez is the secret weapon. Whenever he goes in, if he's on, we're golden.
5. The Nationals have now win six consecutive road games against some of baseball's best teams. They have won seven in a row total, and 17 of their last 19. I'm not sure even the 1927 Yankees ever did that.
Oops. Four road games in a row. Not six. Brain is operating on limited sleep.
mike k:
SOME, not all, people equate "old school" with "good."
Conversely, not all "old school" stuff is bad depending on how and who you categorize as "old school."
The glaring exception is Casey Stengel,
whose contrarian innovations (platooning, eschewing the sac bunt) in his era inspired Bill James and early sabermetricians to re-think baseball's "time-honoured ways."
Great rant, though!
I'm not equating old school with better. It's just the way I learned to play and coach and what worked for me. Old school didn't believe in striking out...hit the ball and good thing will happen. Different theory today. Old school meant that everybody knew how to lay down a bunt. It's barely taught today so the success rate is much lower. Old school meant that if they shifted three guys to one side of the field you better hit to the open side of the field because they are gifting you a hit. That's the reason you played pepper for hours (learning bat control). Just differences in the theory of how to play the game. You get good at what you practice. So to get that first run in, I'm bunting Eaton. No right or wrong to it. It's how you teach and play the game.
Just win, baby. Let's go 1-0 today.
But regarding the Eaton bunt, it looked to me like that was him attempting to bunt for a hit, not sacrifice the runner over. Given Turner taking off for second immediately after his hit, I think the Nats clearly are planning to use their speed to put pressure on the Astros defense every chance they get. I like the idea of doing everything you can to get that first run but I like the idea of forcing the defense to react to Turner/Eaton using their speed. I think that's one facet of the Nats that's been overlooked when the pundits favored Houston. We have some exceptionally fast and good players.
I texted a friend last night that after we’re done with impeachment procedures, I want a Congressional investigation into why Adam Eaton keeps bunting.
Also, tried (and failed) to go to bed during the 7th. Ended up watching the pitch track on the MLB app, and his pitches were right on the line, and could easily have been called strikes, and I could see why he was trying that spot so much, hoping for a fraction of an inch to establish that part of the low zone against these hitters, especially after the early homerun. He probably should have adjusted his approach, but he was *so close*. Anyway, I thought a lot of his actual pitches looked good on those walks.
At least most Nats fans are consistent: even in the best of times, the team is mismanaged and foolish and only saved by blind luck.
I'll happily pocket the 1-0 lead in the best of 7 and hope the Nats go 1-0 tonight.
SM - all fair points. The bad (good?) thing about rants is they tend not to show the proper finesse and nuance over the finer points of the argument being made. I think another argument against the rant is if we were to truly define "old school", the definition would be something like "things that were done in baseball's past", so many things that "new school" people like (i.e. going first to third) are also old school. To that end, if I were to try and narrow down what exactly my rant is directed toward, it's people who view anything that teams used to do and is also good as old school, where "old school" in that context means "not new school." For instance, "I love that this team goes first to third on singles, those stat nerds don't realize that this is how you score runs." I know it seems like I'm strawmanning here, but I notice people (including broadcasters) do it ALL the time.
Anon - also all fair points. It's true that the success rate on bunts will go down if less people practice it, further decreasing its success rate, and so on. I still believe that, because of Eaton being a lefty and Turner being fast, there are so many probable scenarios where Turner advances to third without bunting that there's no good reason to do it there. If Eaton was a righty, and Turner of average speed, maybe that's no longer the case.
I do disagree regarding being able to beat the shift by sheer will (with notable exceptions). It makes sense conceptually, but I'm pretty sure the numbers have shown it's just not true - including during times where people played pepper.
Spanky's 1st inning AB this time around is why you don't bunt
I don’t complain a ton about strike zones, but the game 2 home plate ump is absolutely KILLING Strasburg.
Go Rainey!
Gonna be hard to find some gloom for the next post. Just a terrific ballgame.
Home crowd coming next, with Anibal and Corbin on tap. Does Houston even have a fourth starter?
The shot of the little nats fan doing baby shark by himself in a rapidly emptying minutemaid park was how I feel about this game.
A ROD JUST DID IT. Yes, A Rod, the nats are old school because they have strong starting pitching.
Et tu, big pappi??? Now the nats are old school because they get on base?!
If you’re Harper, you can find gloom in tonight’s game. “Bregman error, gifts the Nats a huge lead that they never relinquished. Nats made them pay, but this was the Astros losing the game, not the Nats winning it. Eatons hit in the first found a hold, not hit hard. Soto is chasing high heat. Ummm what else... Strasburg didn’t have his best stuff, probably because he threw so many pitches 8 days ago. Rainey might have earned enough trust to pitch another game, but he was missing spots, can’t do that to the amazing Astros, the most amazingest, best team of the century Astros. Oh, and DM didn’t factor; so he’s still a sub-par manager....”
Just friendly jabs, Harper! A win is a win. Maybe some mention of the team chemistry? It looks like it’s a factor with this squad.
Strasburg got in some trouble and then aced like an ace. I did not expect the Nats to win with this kind of beat down but it was fun. Hopefully the legit pen arms come in refreshed. If not, maybe aces will keep acing while the bats continue to show up and Wander Suero can get some postseason action. That, or the Mad King will repeatedly appear in relief to ensure that he won't need to start again.
Looks like Harper got his *** scenario, only with better pitching from Stras. Two days' rest for Doo and Hudson leading up to Game 3!
So, Eaton bunts, Nats win. Sounds like a winning formula, right??
Anyways, anyone else go to the Nats Park watch party last night? The energy was fabulous, especially in that decisive 7th inning. I thought for sure the Astros were going to win by wearing Stras down, and then the floodgates would open once they went to the 'pen. Turns out I was half right!
@Kenny B Yes!!!!! I felt like Stras got 1 generous call, and like 5 balls that were strikes. Felt like JV got a mixture of generous and bad calls.
I mean Stras battled through it like a champ, but he was getting frustrated with it by the 6th. Verlander’s strike zone seemed reasonable throughout, but especially near the end of Strasburg’s outing, the ump was nearly forcing him to make his pitches easier to hit.
Anyway it doesn’t matter because Strasburg is awesome and basically everyone on the offense and defense chipped in tonight, even Michael A. Tater, himself. I don’t know why, but that garbage time homer from him makes me so happy.
So what is the Nats’ post-season record now in games where they give up two runs in the first inning?
Answering my own question, looks like Nats are postseason 3-0 in games where they gave up 2 in the first, and 5-1 in games where they give up any runs in the first.
Like, I’m at the point where when the opposing team scores in the first inning, I feel *better* about the Nats’ chances.
Karma for showboating on the HR, Bregman.
Let's go 1-0 tomorrow
Look we can't really talk because of Soto's antics, but the Bregman thing really rustled my jimmies. Very Badly. Like the phrase hot dogging came out of my mouth. I'm officially my grandpa.
My take on the Nats has always been one of pessimistic optimism. Meaning they'll win, eventually, but everyone's gonna suffer along the way. As we did.
But by the time they cruised into the World Series, that pessimism had fallen away. When Las Vegas was betting 60:40 on a lost series in 5, maybe six games, not me. It just seems like this team is peaking NOW and even a sweep is a possibility. Don't wanna jinx anyone, and I get the Rendon/Strasburg/Martinez/Zimmerman humility: "They're a really great team and this thing isn't over yet so were gonna keep on fighting, one game at a time." That kind of thing.
Right. That's okay. But the guys just took down Cole and Verlander and shook Minute Maid to its foundations. Not just Soto and Rendon and Strass and Max. The entire lineup. Everybody chipping away one at bat and pitch at a time until the whole thing came down after Suzuki's HR. The Astros lost their composure for 3 innings, even the manager admitted that.
Gotta say. Over the last three months, Harper, you laid the necessary tasks down like bread crumbs each week and the Nats, they went through each series one game at a time. On your blog, we commented and bickered, we held strong opinions but in the end we witnessed an amazing season.
I'm all in now. Two more games to win. One at a time. Thanx.
Bregman is the complete antithesis of Rendon. Statistically they're almost identical players, but while there might not be a nicer guy in baseball than Anthony Rendon, Bregman seems like he could be the pitchman for Summer's Eve. Also, while Rendon seemingly has ice in his veins, Bregman looks like he's pressing, gripping the bat tightly (which decreases whip and bat speed) and may be why he hit the changeup out. Honestly, based on swings, I'm throwing that guy nothing but fastballs and sliders. I have no issue with guys flipping bats or being demonstrative, but I absolutely hate slow homerun trots from guys that are neither old nor slow. Here's hoping Bregman boots a few more balls before the series is over.
As for the Nats, I admit that I'm a pessimist. So being up 2 games to none isn't as comforting to me as it is to others. On paper, the Astros are absolutely the better team. They could easily win 4 in a row to close out the Nats, which is why the next two games are so important. The Nats have to win one of the next two games so that at the very least, they put the Astros in an elimination game for games 5-7 once they get back to their aces. Ideally, the Nats would like to win the next two games, but they have to win game 4 where they have the starting pitching advantage. Because beating Cole and Verlander twice in a series sounds like a fool's errand.
I'm with you JW, we have to keep the pressure up. Verlander and Cole could still get this Astros team two wins if we don't keep pushing with everything we've got.
I very clearly remember the '96 Series (was a Yankee fan back then, times have changed). Yanks got crushed in the first 2 games at home, then Cone won game 3, Game 4 was the Leyritz HR, took the lead on a Boggs bases loaded walk. Petitte beat Smoltz 1-0 in Game 5. And then Game 6, 3-2 vs. Maddux. So yeah, this is not over.
Really important to score early in game 3 and keep the Astros off the board. I think the Astros have shown that they're capable of imploding and if the Nats can put pressure on them to start game 3, things could spiral out of control for Houston. I think Nats park will really favor the Nats because it's likely to be cold and is much bigger than Minute Maid park. The Astros rely on the longball a lot more than the Nats do and given the new baseball, coupled with the cold weather, I don't think we're going to see a ton of homeruns.
Tuesday night we punched them in the mouth. Last night we kicked them while they were down. Tomorrow we plant the foot firmly on the throat and don't let up.
This streak is so far beyond expectations it's difficult to find anything at all to say. I'm almost as speechless as I was that moment a Russell Senate Office Building elevator door opened and I found myself face to face with Whitney Houston.
SOOOOOOO happy for Kurt Suzuki, MAT, Mighty Mouse Eaton, and Stras. The perfect icing for this cake of a post-season would be for the Nats to finish the sweep, with Parra clouting a clinching dinger in the waning moments of Game 4 while 45,000 do the Baby Shark clap.
Speaking of which, WTF was that stupid Baby Shark jingle Fox was playing while going to break after the top of the 9th? Do those dumbass producers honestly not know what the Baby Shark phenomenon is all about and Parra's walkup music????? That was one of the most totally effed up moments in the history of sports broadcasting.
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