I didn't think I was being optimistic yesterday. The facts are this : The NL East has one team with a good record. It has no really good teams. The Nats, after a lousy and unlucky start, have played good baseball going 19-9 in June. They are three games from finishing what is likely their toughest stretch of baseball and have a distinctly less challenging schedule the rest of the way than either the Braves (slightly harder) or the Mets (much harder)*. The Nats CAN win this division
No it wouldn't be easy or expected, but if they are healthy coming out of this next stretch and only a couple games out heading into the division gauntlet it could happen. Rebuilding is no guarantee of success, not in 3 years, not in 5 years, not in 7. It's a gamble especially with a minor league system currently seemingly ready to produce one good starting pitcher and that's it over the next couple years. It's a gamble without knowing what is going to happen with the rest of the NL East. Do the Mets get healthy and dominate the next couple years? Do all those young Braves pieces finally fit together? Do the Marlins blossom? Why gamble on that when you can gamble on the division title right in front of you?
I'm not saying the Nats shouldn't sell this year. I'm just saying it's too early to tell. There's time left to decide. There's a winnable situation out there. Don't pass it up.
Other Notes : Soto beat out Ohtani in the HR Derby but couldn't get past the machine that is Alonso. FWIW I though Ohtani was the better HR hitter but had the worst pitcher and he himself choked a little. Soto's 3 for 3 showed he (1) can still crush homers (2) probably needs a specific area of pitch to do it.
For those worried about the HR Derby affecting swings - we've gone over this before but there's no factual basis to back that up. People do hit fewer homers after the ASG but there are easily explainable reasons why that is so like - "there are fewer games after the ASB dummy!" and "the guys hitting abnormally the most homers get chosen for the derby so they are very likely to hit more normal amounts of homers for them going forward... dummy!" Take these things into account and HRs post derby are pretty much exactly as you'd expect.
I would expect to see Soto late as a PH. Trea might come in half-way as I expect Tatis to get two turns at bat. Roberts might also hold Trea to pinch run though
*the Phillies might have the easiest schedule left with their season series with the Pirates, D-backs, and Orioles and their remaining 4 Rockies games all coming after July 29th.
3 comments:
I think there's plenty of room for optimism depending on the status of injured players. Stras, Ross, Gomes, Schwarber all need to have good outlooks. Given the status of contracts and such, I just don't see the Nats making any moves before the break (unless it's a blockbuster type move). There aren't going to be any marginal fixes around the edges with this roster. If they make a move, it will be for a starter I have to think, but it would have to be a rental since the Nats don't have much to give (unless, again, blockbuster)
I think you are what your record says you are. We might get some great people back from the IL, but could easily lose others. Soto might take off, but Schwarber will regress. Things will even out. We're an average team and we're most likely to play like an average team. The Mets might come down to earth a bit more, but the Phillies might play better. It's a little bit of a crapshoot, but we are starting from way behind. I think the second half will be fun and we will stay close enough to make the games interesting but there is very little chance we will pull this off.
Anon - I think that's fair. Assuming normal injuries the Nats will probably be about average. I'm hoping for more health - that's pretty much what made the difference in 2019. Only Max really got hurt and that was well late in the year.
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