The Nats have up to this point survived the stretch. It wasn't done as planned. They streaked out on a 3-0 run making it seem like they had the stretch in the bag, only to get swept by the Dodgers putting them right back on their slow and steady schedule. 4-4 total so far means 2-4 is all they need so it's likely they'll do it but take nothing for granted for this beat up team.
These 4 versus San Diego are of particular importance because of the situation the Nats find themselves in. In 2019 the Nats had managed to crawl back to respectability by now and sat at 42-41, just a game away from the 41-42 the 2021 Nats sit at. The 2019 Nats found themselves 7 games out of the division (with Philly in between a couple games up) but a mere 1.5 games out of the second wild card. They would be on the start of a 8-1 run that would leave them at 49-42 and a half game in the first wild card lead. The safety of being in the WC race was there while they tried for more. They wouldn't get it division wise even though they had their chances. They'd get to 4 games out of Atlanta and enter a late July series 5.5 out but would lose that. They'd crawl back to 4.5 out in the midst of an amazing August stretch (18-5 from the 5th to Sept 1) but Atlanta would match them with an equally amazing August and the Nats couldn't get closer. Still it's more important that they'd basically be RIGHT THERE in the Wild Card hunt and that August would all but guarantee their spot. In other words, by game 83 the Nats had made their way back into a good position and by game 92 they'd be in a great spot where even sputtering for a while they'd remain a good couple series run away from controlling their destiny.
The 2021 Nats arguably have a better shot at the division title - only 4 games out of first and with a Mets team that seems unlikely to pull off an 18-5 type run at any time. Still Philly and Atlanta are only a half game behind. It remains a dogfight (of weak old dogs). The WC situation though is much worse. The Nats are 7 games out as of today and they are chasing... the Padres. That is why these games matter. I can't say going 3-1 in San Diego and picking up a couple games on the Padres would be great. Six games out is still a big chunk of games to make up. But going 1-3 and losing 2 games to the Padres would be devastating to any WC hopes. As much as a division title is nice because it's in your hands and conveys some benefits, it's also a very narrow path to success. The WC, with 2 spots and the jockeying of several teams to watch for, is usually the safer bet. Not in 2021.
So take these games in particular as important. If the Nats don't come out of this stretch and the games immediately after the ASB against the Padres at at least 5-2 then the focus of the second half becomes only on the NL East title and a whole bunch of series become must wins so September's soft landing can be used to hold off any late charges, instead of trying desperately to catch up to whoever is in the driver's seat.
16 comments:
Harper -- one alternative take is that it's actually the Giants series which is key. The Padres are so much better than SF that it seems a decent bet that the Giants are actually the competitor for WC2.
Either way if you'd told me they'd go 4-4 on the last 8 ahead of time I would have taken it!
Despite the Mets coughing up at least one injured player per game early on, they have somehow hung around. deGrom can't pitch everyday, so I must attribute their success to Fuggin Magic or some other force that escapes numerical analysis.
Getting Trea back is absolutely huge. Starting Avila at second base was the epitome of a team with no good options. With Trea back, they not only fill one of the gaping holes in the lineup, they get better defense and a player that can spark an offense every once in a while.
Doesn't mean they are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, but things are looking up after that horrendous dodgers series. Now if we could only get Stras back...
Here's my hot take. I'd like to suggest that if we were going to have a spate of injuries this is the perfect time to have it happen. Yes, we're playing the toughest part of our schedule but we're playing the toughest part of our schedule.
How many games were we really going to win from the Dodgers? Padres away? Giants away? Maybe 3 or 4 at most even at full health? And we have 1 and hopefully we'll luck into another couple? So it's just a few games and then the ASB to get more fully healthy when we have a much easier schedule.
I have to agree with Matt here: the Dodgers and Padres are *supposed* to be the best teams in the NL, so it's no surprise to see them playing well. The Giants, though, are way over their predicted level right now, so if anyone's going to come back to earth out of the NL West group and give the Nats a shot at a WC, I'd think it would be them.
(That said, winning games is ultimately what's necessary no matter against whom. .500 teams don't need to worry about division titles OR Wild Cards.)
Matt / Dezo - I'm not a Giants believer but they've built up a nice cushion on the Padres. For the Nats to catch them for a 2nd WC would take a pretty nice run for the Nats AND a fall for the Giants (for example Giants go a pretty bad 35-43 from here on out Nats need to go at least 47-32 to catch them - that's closing in on a 100 win pace for half a season). I kind of like the Nats to do well but that's pushing it and the Giants do have their ARI and COL games built in giving them a floor from completely washing out. But hey - Nats win the series coming up might change my mind.
Bote - built the most talented and deep team in the East so even though they have had terrible injury luck they've survived. Nats are the ones getting lucky when they've gotten hurt.
CP - everyone healthy they are as good as any team (if Schwarber is even 90% what he has been). But that's been a very tough call for every team this year.
Anon - I don't care about the competition as much as the timing. Give me the injuries before the ASB so the team can have those 3 days for rest and to figure out where they stand going into the trade deadline. After is worse because you can make a decision to go for it and see it unravel.
2-4 seems likely. Which means another check mark. We’ll see what happens after the ASB.
Getting Trea back is huge! Hits a HR on his first PA back. Is he the best non-Tatis NL SS?
GCX - the clear answer is "duh". the better question is whether he's the best non-Tatis SS in the MLB. I can see the argument for Correa or Bogaerts, but that's clearly your top 4. Bichette doesn't have the resume just yet (not as explosive as Tatis, not as long of a resume as the others)
Yeah that's pretty much the SS list. Seager would be in there too if he wasn't hurt. Lindor probably was the best O/D combo because his D was that good but he's going to have to show the offense in the 2nd half. Marcus Semien is right up there but the Blue Jays pushed him over to 2B/3B so Bichette could play SS in a "Jeter forces A-Rod over but as a rookie" scenario.
Nats are what, 11.5 games back of SF, with only 3 H2H left? Seems like little chance of catching them, barring something epic
An actually healthy Strasburg would go a really, really long way to making the post ASB push attainable. Seems like the difference between another "maybe" team vs. being a competitor is that Max / Stras duo.
On SD/SF, I think everyone's right.
Per Fangraphs, SF is projected for 91 wins, SD for 93, and the Mets for 89. Given where the Nats are, to catch a playoff spot they not only need to get lucky but also they probably also need someone else to get unlucky. (I am really having a hard time seeing the sort of good luck that gets this team to 90 wins which would take 49-30 the rest of the way). Staying as close as possible to all three teams maximizes the chances that one of them will hit a hard enough skid for the Nats to catch them.
I'm not really holding my breath though.
I'm going to continue beating an old drum and a dead horse: the Nats are suffering major injuries to a LOT of players, so the team is really a AAAA creation. Why aren't we pounding on the training, medical and coaching staffs for not preparing our players for the rigors of the season? Loose muscles and warmed up bodies don't suffer the pulls and stresses we're seeing which decimate the team. Nothing to be said for getting hit by a pitch, but hamstring pulls (when the quads and hamstrings aren't loose enough), jammed fingers on the base paths (when sliding technique hasn't been drilled into the players by monotonous repetition) both fall to the training and coaching staff. Long periods injured fall to the med staff.
If the Nats would fire the lot and offer new staff 50% more salary than the old was getting, maybe quality people would respond and we'd have a healthier, competitive team.
The increase in salary total would be insignificant compared to the massive salaries of 5-inning Scherzer, occasional pitch Strasburg, etc.
{ No, the Nats won't do that. I'm just fantasizing ... }
@Barney: sometimes it's just bad luck, even with hamstrings and especially with most pitching related injuries. Would you rather have the trainer for the Mets? the Braves?
@Matt: it would take a lot for the Nats to win 90 games, and that's the minimum they'll need to win the Division or WC2. Even if Strasburg comes back, they just don't have enough bats to beat decent pitching. And their defense is not good. And given the thread bare minor league replacements, any injury to Max, Trea or Soto will cost them multiple games.
I'm just not seeing it this year.
There's no better time than now during this brutal pre ASG run for all these injuries. Couldn't have come at a better time if you ask me. We'd likely lose most of these games (LA (4) @SD (4) @SF (3)) anyway even when healthy. The ASB also buys us some time to recoup. I'd be frustrating if we were playing the Marlins and Pirates and losing 3-2 or 4-3, then we can say we missed out on an opportunity with all the injuries. Just a thought.
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