To be perfectly honest - when the Strasburg news (which was basically - he's not ready and we're not sure when he's going to be ready) came down this weekend I was ready to pack it in. With Strasburg you can figure out how this team might MIGHT come back and take the division over a Mets team (if they started failing) and mediocre Phillies/Braves competition. Without Strasburg? Can't see it. Getting swept by the Orioles was only a helpful confirmation.
Ugly weekend but now we have focus. Trade everything. Well there are three questions actually
Do you trade Max? Max seems to like it here and with a title has no reason to go chasing something at the end of his career. But he is a FA at the end of the year probably looking for a "finish my career" contract so at least 3 years, probably more. If the Nats aren't going to sign him* they should trade him
Do you trade Trea? Trea is up for FA after next year. He's a top flight SS, who should get a nice big payday. You need players like that. But if you are being serious about it, the likely long term plan would be getting good again around 2024 - in time to convince Soto to stay. in 2025 Turner will be 31, more likely to get nagging injuries, more likely to be in his decline. Still it's not likely but the big reason you trade him is because he's your biggest chip, the one most likely to bring a piece back you can be relatively sure will be part of the next competitve team. Probably not a likely star, but a likely starter who might surprise. Maybe another piece too. Everyone else is bringing back long shots and role players.
Do you trade Soto? Ooof. No. If you are trading Soto you are giving up for a LONG time because you don't deal a definite All-Star maybe HoF caliber player at 22. You can probably get a couple really good prospects back for him. They will also probably be no more than 24 months younger than Soto and with no track record of success in the majors. This would be dumb.
Time to call into talk radio and get ready for a return to the bad good old days.
14 comments:
It always amazes me when I realize just how young Soto really is, given that this is already his fourth season in MLB. Not to mention how good he is. His "slump" at the beginning of the year was "play like an above-average starter"; it's just that his "expected" level of play is "Ted Williams."
The key reason that we don't trade Soto is that we are locked into the Strasburg contract for 5 years and the Corbin contract for 3. If Stras ever gets healthy again (IF!) then you have a brittle-health ace-tier pitcher on an ace-tier contract, which isn't something that's easily tradeable. Combine that with the fact that player development has generally been the Nats' weakest area under the current management (Stras, Harper, Soto being colossal successes, but otherwise there's been a whole lot of "meh" coming out of the farm system, including "can't miss" types like Kieboom and Robles), a retool definitely seems like a more productive decision--which implies that if we can get Turner to take, say, a 4-year extension that we should be grabbing it.
To the above commenter's point, it's hard to see the logic in a full tear down when they have Stras and Corbin under contract. Not necessarily because they're definite All-Stars the next few seasons, but because there's so much money committed there, they might as well try to re-sign Trea and Scherzer while trading Bell, Schwarber, Harrison for whatever they can get. Liked all those guys (ok would've liked more from Bell) but none feel like they'll be around for actual contention, so might as well sell your losses now to cash in on prospects.
Rizzo's proven good at quickly re-tooling positions, so if they fill in the 3B hole with Bryant next season and make a couple more Murphy-like free agent pickups they can realistically win the division again. Garcia in particular looks like he could help more with 2B, Anthony Rizzo will be on the market for a not outrageous contract, if they can get Bryant on, say, a 5 yr/$18M per contract (or a larger value, Lerner Special extended one) feels like they'd be right back in it next season.
Other than Corbin and Stras, the Nats aren't sitting on albatross contracts. Whatever Rizzo's drafting and development limitations are (and I am not convinced it's much more than small sample size combined with a high-variance strategy), he is definitely above average in getting wins per dollar from free agents on the position player side. To me, that suggests a quick rebuild for another lottery ticket team where good luck with health hides weaknesses in both depth and quantitative sophistication. Those teams are also fun to root for. Implication for the trade deadline is Nats not asking for recent high school prospects with 4 year development timeliness in their trades. It means getting back short term bad contracts (probably not looking to save money this year) with slightly better and closer players (obviously not going to get anything actually good without trading Trea). The new player contract should also let Nats flex money a little more since parity is not this year's fetish.
Is Max untradeable due to his contract structure (tons of deferred money), and his no trade clause (which he can leverage to require the acquiring team to give him an extension)?
Maybe these things don’t make him “untradeable”, but at least not at all straightforward to trade?
It should be considered that there's a rather large class of good Shortstops that are free agents after this season. Would Correa, Baez, or Semien be a cheaper or better option?
Or maybe you just wait until after the CBA is negotiated and go picking through the ruins of baseball.
Max can make himself untradeable, but the deferred money issue just means that the teams have to decide who is going to pay that money and apportion value properly. Legit #1 rentals are worth a lot to the right buyer, but if that buyer has to eat $105M in deferred money the Nats are going to get pocket lint back.
As billyhacker noted, Rizzo's strengths have been in working the trade market and picking up FAs. Given a willingness to spend money (which the Nats have absolutely had) and a strong core, a retool is definitely possible. The Nats have a star RF and SS right now, and C and 1B are positions where it's pretty much always possible to find functional players if not stars (Bell also has an arb year left, I believe, which nicely fits "functional 1B" as well). Down the stretch is definitely time where Garcia and/or Kieboom need to show that they're part of the Nats' future infield plans, to say nothing of Robles in CF--alternatively, Rizzo might move them (as well as perhaps Rainey, Fedde, etc.) in the offseason for cost-controlled MLB talent to a team that thinks they can find the next Giolito.
Even if 2021 turns out to be a train wreck season, the Nats have a lot going for them. Players like DC. Its a great place to play. And in Rizzo we have a GM that players (and other GMs) respect. This season could have been a much more happy story if injuries and streaks had played out differently. Not enough lightning was captured this time --- but there was some.
For 2022, Turner and Soto are two pieces that can be built around. Betting on Schwarber was smart --- the guy has re-established his value and will get a much better contract going forward. His agent will be happy to answer phone calls from Washington.
The rotation is the difficult problem. Hard to see Scherzer staying. Corbin and Strasburg seem to be on the downside of their careers --- huge contracts tied to diminishing performances.
Can Rizzo bring back in one or two aces with pieces that need to move (Robles, Kieboom) and spare parts --- or FA money?
When is the CBA up? That could be a huge factor in how to proceed.
CBA expires December 1 this year. Rizzo's contract expires after 2023 season--two dates to keep in mind.
@ Nattydread Still think it's early to give up on Robles but otherwise agree. The extension/no-trade situation for Scherzer seems like the main hurdle to a trade. Wonder if Schwarber will feel like testing the market since he has a mutual option, think they ought to sell high on him.
Think they're tied to Strasburg and Corbin for the forseeable future (and yeah they're not albatrosses but they do have large contracts) so they have to hope for bounceback and then maximize what they can otherwise. So...maybe lock up Turner, go for Bryant and Rizzo in the FA market, and hope for more from Garcia (who's hit great in the minors this year)? That infield/lineup could be pretty decent, though might feel like the Chicago Nationals if they also bring back Schwarber. Seems like it could extend their contention window until 2024 or so and not be financially unrealistic (though maybe a stretch if Schwarber, probably rightfully, chooses to try and cash out).
@Ollie
"Chicago Nationals" I'll wear Cubbie Blue all year and start liking Bill Murray if they just promise NOT to bring back Lester next year.
Rizzo is a madman when it comes to creating trades out of the blue, so I can't really speculate what's coming this week, but I have to imagine we're not going to be seeing anything "obvious" like shipping Max to the Padres to snag one of their higher tier prospects
I really do think this is the perfect time for a reset, though (well last offseason would have been more prime, but oh well). The payroll situation is looking pretty good over the next few seasons so Rizzo has a lot of flexibility on the FA market, but the team really needs some players in the farm to have any sort of hope at an extended window
Robles is who he is at this point. Don't hold out any hope for improvement.
I kind of feel like Robles still has his best years coming, which will be a pretty good player. A solid CF with an average bat. MAYBE he gets a little above average in his 26-29 year old seasons. Remember he is only 24. His peak won’t be what we hoped it would. But a good 4 year stretch of being a solid contributor, I could totally see. I don’t see power coming, but maybe he gets a little bit better at working a count. I’ll be the first to say this year was BAD. But if his OBP improves a little, and he hits a little better average. He could be a contributor. Not a star, but with his speed and defense, his bat only needs to be a little better. 2019 was not a bad year for him. If that’s a baseline for him then he’ll be okay. I wouldn’t trade him. I’d hang on to him for a bit. Keiboom, looks useless. I THINK. If he comes up this time and plays well…. Then maybe they have something. I honestly believe that Garcia is good to go. He’ll be at least an okay 2b. They’d need to focus on getting talent at 1B and a corner outfield. If those 2 positions can be big bats the rest of the lineup works. I’d honestly try for nest year with Turner, Soto, Robles, Garcia, Kieboom (big ??), and shoot for FA corner outfield, 1B, and C.
Rotation- big mess, but you gotta roll with Stras and Corbin. I like resigning Max as long as it isn’t a ton of money, then fill with FA. Maybe Cavali takes a step late next year or Rutledge.
Those young position players are really young. They’ve just don’t have any GOOD vets to contribute. Maybe I’m a homer.
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