Nationals Baseball: Don't get swept - Giants version

Friday, July 09, 2021

Don't get swept - Giants version

The Nats are at 5-6 and if you forget about the how (3-0 start then swept, 8-0 lead blown) again that's probably where we wanted the Nats to be going into this last series.  Win 1 of 3 from SF in this away series, the most likely outcome, and pack the whole thing up as a moral victory that continues to line the Nats up for whatever run they may make in the second half. 

Of course it's not exactly that simple - watching Max get blown out and having Ross go on the IL sets up a potential future where the rotation starts Corbin - Fedde - Lester - Espino... and that's not winning you anything.  But who knows? It could be this bad OR everyone could be back in place after the ASB and we're arguing if Lester needs to sit for Fedde and Ross. We don't know, no sense worrying about it now. 

Also some people worry about big losses starting something (or get hopeful about big wins starting something) and as your non-friendly non-neighborhood Soulless Automaton I can tell you stop. They don't. Or at least you can't definitively link them to such things, there doesn't seem to be an evidence, and usually such things are the work of back-fitting a season to the narrative rather than actual single game turning points existing. 

The Giants have been more mortal recently 4-6 in their last 10 and 3 of those wins being against the D-backs (that's the NL West cushion which should keep the Giants in STRONG WC contention even if they start to peter out). It's mostly been a slow down in the offense against the Dodgers on the far end of those 10 games. They seem better more recently.  Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria are both out and like most teams the Giants are just shuffling them off to a post-ASB return to get max rest for them. Posey, with a sore thumb, might not play either. That would make sense... if these games before the ASB didn't count too. But they do! Just the same! So put me in the group that likes the Nats "bring them back when they are ready" strategy.  Still their back-ups are doing fine because this is one of those charmed seasons when things like that happen 

The bullpen is still super deep with no real stand out arms but no terrible ones either. Think of the Nats bullpen after Hand and Hudson and before whoever the last arm is. Then make everyone one step better. That's the Giants pen. Reliable but not shutdown. No recent issues either so the Nats will like have to win these games by beating the starters and outscoring a hopefully sluggish offense.


Espino vs Logan Webb - Paolo's job is to get the Nats through 4-5 innings in the game. He's done it in all his emergency starts this year. He doesn't strike anyone out but limits the homer/walk mistakes. You have to beat him. This isn't historically Paolo though - he'd walk guys and give up homers - so it could all come crashing down. Webb is coming back from an IL stint. He was a guy with decent stuff who can get into trouble but stays away from the long ball.

Lester vs Anthony DeSclafani - Lester was trash last time out and the two times before that. This was after a run of mostly decent starts this entire season. He looks gassed though. Not missing any bats and trouble with command. If the Nats weren't missing multiple starters, he'd probably get a break. Sorry Jon! Maybe the long ASB will help - just bear down here.  DeScalfani is very solid though not a K guy so he probably won't keep the Nats scoreless.

Fedde vs Kevin Gausman - Fedde hasn't looked right recently. Is it injury or is it Spider Tack withdrawl? Either way 3 Ks in his last two starts matching 3 homers in those 8 innings, and 14 hits. He did look decent his first time through last game so maybe it's just stretching back out. Or maybe like the rest of his career he really isn't a starter. What a fun back and forth season this has been with him and Ross alternately disappointing just enough to make it a little bit of a mess. Gausman is good! You don't want to go into this game needing to win it.


Anonymous said...

The Nats contacted Dr Emu and won Escobar and Mercer.

Matt said...

Can Dr Emu help you win lotteries you really really should win? Ones where the odds are heavily heavily in your favor? Like say when you're leading a baseball game 8-0 midway through the 4th inning?

Ollie said...

I like Dr. Emu’s ideas, maybe he can change the Nats’ luck too.

Anonymous said...

They're almost certainly going to be 7 or 8 games back heading into the break. If the team was healthy I'd say it's worth hanging on and hoping, but with the injury situation being the way it is, they're done. If Rizzo is smart he'll be a seller.

PotomacFan said...

If there were a fat lady, she would be singing now. It's over.