The Nats lost. Oh well. still 4-5 is on pace. 4-6 isn't even that bad if they lose tonight. Only worry if they lost the next two because you'd rather have to take one from SF in SF, not win the series.
Where the Nats are currently is they are a .500 team that have played like a .500 team. They pitch ok both as starter and reliever, which actually gives them a slight advantage over other teams who don't do one or the other well. They still don't score when Schwarber isn't doing a roided Barry Bonds impression, but they aren't the worse at it - the bad scoring luck of the early season gone away.
Catching - Gomes is good! Avila was fine as a back-up catcher which means kind of bad but what are you going to do? It's a back-up catcher. You aren't finding a good player if you didn't develop one yourself. Avila is hurt now but 29 of 39 teams 3rd catcher is gonna be trash.
First Base - Bell's been hitting better each month which yes is easy given the abysmal April but he's back over average. He'll probably dip again soon but he's pretty much become the bat the Nats expected
Second Base - The opposite of Bell - after a torrid April has hit pretty poorly since. Not terrible but below average.
Short Stop - Star turn continues. He'll probably never be the BEST SS in the majors but he's up in the conversation for "who else" once you get past whoever is at the moment.
Third Base - people act like he's a gaping hole but the truth is he is hitting like Harrison since April and completely in line with his previous stats. He's a decent fielder. He stays healthy. I can see why you want better but he's not a disappointment.
Left Field - Schwarber was ok then got AMAZING. Now hurt and out for a while
Center Field - Robles is kind of bad. If you are looking for one thing that is the Nats problem... this isn't it. But if you are on the second thing. Yes Robles not developing into anything could be it. He's a great defender but he's MAT production at the plate
Right Field - disappointing for Soto. He's probably hurt and hitting everything down because of a shoulder issue but it doesn't seem to be getting worse and he's still got a great eye and hits the ball hard so you keep playing him hoping for a return to form and the meanwhile he's still your second best bat.
Bench - well here's your problem! Zimm has been useful in his limited appearances. Yadi stinks, Parra stinks, Stevenson stunk, Mercer... didn't stink but all Mercer can do is not much, Garcia stunk,
Overall the Nats have a decent healthy offense set-up. It's not as good as it has been (that'll happen if you lose a Rendon) but it's ok. Better than average with everyone healthy and hitting as expected. The second part is mostly happening, Soto not being SOTO costs them a little. But really it's the first part not happening that kills them. They replace someone good or at least ok with someone bad and the line-up becomes real short.
Trade deadline - Get someone good! OF or IF! The IF has to be good. Pulling Castro for a guy hitting a 100OPS+ isn't getting you anything. The OF has to be good too... if you are replacing Robles. If you are filling in the Schwarber absence you can go with average. Wouldn't hurt to get both.
Starting Pitching - Lester is degrading. Corbin still isn't good enough - rolling through decent stretches then tossing one or two stinkers. Ross and Fedde are unreliable. They need Strasburg (GOOD Strasburg) to help anchor the rotation and not force 3 of 4 starts to need 4+ innings of bullpen work. An extra stud pitcher or even a solid middle would help but I don't expect that from the Nats. An extra 5th type arm would be superfluous here.
Relief pitching - Brad Hand hasn't been smooth sailing but he's been ok. The rest of the pen are guys that can come in and do well or not - they are pretty average. And while it's nice to have a bunch of arms to go to if you don't solve the starting pitching issues you can't find the good ones in any night because guys are overworked or resting. The end result is tossing out 4 arms almost every night knowing full well one is probably going to have nothing. Hudson coming back will help out alot assuming he can keep up his pitching from before.
Looking at the Nats there isn't anything specifically wrong. But that's what you get with an average team. And that can be a problem because without a glaring easy fix any fix that will actually impact your team will cost you and the Nats don't have the prospects to pay up. The Nats expected movement going forward is to fritter around the edges getting a decent OF (to play while Schwarber's out) and a not as decent IF (for depth) and maybe another bullpen arm if it's there because a LHP that can be decent against everyone - even if it's really just decent - would be preferable to Clay as your first LHP option. Nothing more. Anything more is just too expensive for a team who can't be sure it's going to matter in the end.
20 comments:
Agreed with the sentiment that any move they make at this point will likely yield marginal improvement. Unless they find a way to put down a lot of cash on a rental and throw a few lottery tickets in. I was thinking Kikuchi would fit, but then realized he has a crazy contract with 4 1-year club options that might get exercised at the end of the season. Maybe the Halos would be willing to offload Cobb for a pittance? Duffy in KC could also maybe fit?
The way I look at it is that Lester is garbage and you aren't really replacing Ross/Fedde, you're replacing Lester, a below replacement level guy who doesn't even eat innings like we'd hoped for. So maybe a straight up trade of Lester+$$$ could do it to snag a guy who's at least replacement level
Good analysis. Sounds like a different situation than 2019 Nats, even though the record was similar at this point of the season. Less chance for a 52-28 type of half season run this year.
ChiSox just DFAed Eaton. Should the Nats pick him up once he clears waivers? I would prefer him to Yadiel; he might also be an upgrade from Stevenson/Parra (though Parra Baby Shark brings joy to Nats Park)
First rate "tour d'horizon"--as pointy-headed French ontologists like to say--on the Nats' situation. Sounds like there are some dark clouds on that horizon. Or am I mistaken?
I agree this is all on-target, which is too bad. Mike Rizzo and the Lerners are not going to give up Max Scherzer under any circumstances (I agree) and they will never give up if there is any chance by the end of July the team could still make the playoffs. In some ways it is the worst position to be in, if the final result is being mediocre and missing both the playoffs and good trade opportunities.
It's the kind of scenario that almost makes me hope they sign Adam Eaton and do a few other things around the edges. In that case you hope for a miracle but enjoy seeing him and other old friend Parra while pondering whether Howie Kendrick might want to come play again for a few months.
These pitchers with their spot starts gets me to thinking - with all the guys who've done long stints (aka short starts), why not try to put them to better use?
Suppose Strasburg comes back and Lester gets bumped. Then you set up a 3-man "long relief rotation" where they should expect to pitch once through the order (or maybe 3 innings, depending) and then ideally get 2 days off afterwards. Those 3 could be Lester, Espino and Voth. Figure none of them will have to work when Max is in, but they could back up Fedde, Ross, Stras (as he's getting back into form) and Corbin. The starter plus one of those guys should get you at least through the 7th, plus an AB for a pinch-hitter in the middle of the game. You'd still have 5 traditional relievers, but could add one bench bat back.
And another thing - Jake Noll is hitting pretty well in AAA. The team could really use a righty power bat, and he's hitting 302/345/486, and that's not aided by Fresno's silly ballpark.
I'm not saying he's a FIND, but if "replacement level" is what the nats need, he might be as good as Castro or any of the also-rans that they need at the moment.
I like that idea KR, but pitchers will never go for it since it's essentially the little league move when you're restricted to 4 innings. Pitchers want to be either starters or relievers, they don't want to be something in the middle. Which is unfortunate, because I do think there may be some merit to the idea of letting a middling starter go ham once through the lineup without worrying about changing their pitch mix up the next time through (since there will be no "next time")
What’s the starting pitching plan going forward? Who moves to the bullpen (or gets DFAed) when Stras returns?
@ G Cracka: by the time Stras gets back, someone else will probably be hurt. But let's assume everyone is healthy. And by then, Daniel Hudson will probably also be back. Jefry Rodriguez and/or Andres Machado will be gone -- back to the minors. Then maybe Kyle McGowin. Starting rotation would be Max, Stras, Corbin, Ross and Fedde/Lester.
Would it be fair to say that defensively, Escobar > Harrison at 2nd, and Harrison > Schwarber at LF?
Spot-on comments about the Nats' lineup. Schwarber, Turner, Soto, and Bell/Zim are good. Gomes has been quite good as the primary catcher. That just leaves Castro, Harrison, and Robles as replaceable. Castro and Harrison are firmly adequate, leaving Robles as the only real hole in the lineup, and above-average centerfielders are not easy to come by at the deadline (or any other time). Strasburg returning to 2019 form would be the biggest addition the pitching staff could reasonably expect. (Meanwhile, if Max has a recurrence of Old Man Neck/Back like in recent years, we're pretty much toast.)
However, for now I'll just enjoy the fact that the offense showed up in a big way, Corbin managed to survive without disaster, and we're back on track needing only one win in SF to hit Harper's target and with the potential for improvement. Giving Max some of that run support tonight could be huge.
I thought catching the Padres was going to be impossible, but another win tonight and perhaps it's not crazy.
I think Eaton at least gets a call from the Nationals and I expect Martinez would love to have another "gritty veteran" who "plays the game the right way". The problem is that Parra sucks and Eaton has managed to be worse over the last two years.
Assuming Strasburg comes back and is himself, I expect Rizzo to go after a #3 starter unless a position player falls into his lap. I don't think we want to rely on either Ross or Fedde in that spot, despite the current stats.
I'm in a weird place where I (1) would love to throw our hat in the ring to compete this year and (2) know we're not nearly as deep as 2019 and would kind of be alright if we farmed out the rental pieces (Max, Hand, a few others). Odds are we do nothing though (maybe a BP arm?) as we don't have pieces, so would just be taking salary dumps.
Very thankful we used our 9 lives in 2019.
This team seems better than .500. Doubt it will happen, but Kris Bryant seems like one way to upgrade the lineup and the Cubs are skidding.
Never mind, .500 team. Get Scherzer his sticky stuff.
Jinx!
“What if I told you… that even Max Scherzer couldn’t keep a minor league reliever in the ballpark? That an 8 run lead is never safe? ESPN films 30 for 30 series presents: That’s just baseball. Narrated by Matt Williams.”
I'm still in shock. Forget the lucky HR swing on a pitch outside the zone. If you had put odds on Max hitting two batters and issuing a bases loaded walk across the span of four batters I think you could have received 10000000000x1 odds.
Scherzer has very strong feelings about foreign substances and pitchers being able to manage their grips. Seems like he did lose his grip on the game there.
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