You really can't ask for more than what Max gave the Nationals last night. 7 innings 1 run. He did give them an early deficit but he kept them at that single run down until the Nats were able to take a lead. Right into Doolittle and Hudson and that was that. I can't even think of a decision that needed to be made? Max hitting in the 4th? Nah - two outs and a man on first that early isn't a have to situation. Keeping Max in after rains? They barely slowed the game down. Such a nice and easy game for everyone! I have nothing negative to say. The bottom of the line-up came through (Matty October lives!) Zimm got a big homerun that pretty much was the game. What's to feel bad about here?
The Nats now go to LA and we'll get Buehler vs Strasburg both on full rest. Nothing changes, thanks to the days off afforded in this short series. Stras for as long as he can go, hopefully 7, then Doolittle and Hudson. Kendrick in the line-up somewhere. Suzuki starting not Gomes.
The pressure is on the Dodgers, but it's also on the Nats. There's some freedom not being a 106 win team who's goal in WS or bust, but the Nats know they haven't won a DS and they understand the slim margin they have with that pen. My guess is the first team down by 3 (or 2 when it gets late) will get real tight. Why 3? Well whenever anyone gets on there's a chance for two runs to be made up in one swing and guys do get on occasionally. So 2 runs doesn't feel that big until you get later and worry that maybe no one will get on for the rest of the game.
Enjoy the win. Watch Astros / Rays if you want. Tomorrow we'll get to the worrying.
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Gotta start RZ too right? He's hitting 400 with OPS of 1200 in the post season while Adams and Dozier have no hits so far (through 5 total at bats but still)
All of you guys owe MAT and RZ an apology.
I sure wish we could have October MAT all year long. It's a shame - he's not that good, but with 500 ABs, I think he'd be a league-average producer with stellar defense. Maybe they could dump Eaton for MAT/Stevenson/Parra? It'd save a few $ that could go to a reliever.
Its been nice to see some hits from MAT but he still is what hes been forever. Very good defense and singles when the ball falls in the right places
Yes, I just hated those same old ball-falling-in-the-right-places singles that MAT hit in games 4 and 5 in 2017.
I loved every minute of last night -- even the rain. But why in the hell is Eaton up there attempting to bunt several times? Why did Scherzer try to bunt with 2 strikes? As the old guy a couple rows in front of me yelled, "Swing the damn bat!"
Mark:
Who owes MAT an apology? And why?
Looking at postseason MAT, what I'm most impressed by is his walk rate. It's double his usual.
And since walk rate is driven largely by approach, I don't think it's so farfetched for it to be at least somewhat real.
Yeah. That's one decision I can hate on pretty hard. With a high, non bunting, OBP, Eaton needs to stop being creative. See ball, hit ball. Or take your walk.
I didn't love the decision to leave Max in to face Pederson
Why do we want Suzuki to start? Is he Strasburg's catcher? Suzuki has 10 plate appearances, 2 walks, 0 hits, 3 GIDP. So, in 10 plate appearances, he has accounted for 11 outs. I like Suzuki more than Gomes, but I don't think it's a done deal.
Whatever one thinks about DM's decisions, MAT's usefulness (btw, will Robles be available for Game 5?), and Suzuki v. Gomes, I think we can all agree on one thing: Last night, Doolittle and Justin Turner gave us the single greatest Ginger Beard v. Ginger Beard matchup in MLB history!!
... and Carrot Top pitched!
I'm with TK; wrote about it in the last thread. I was literally speaking to my television begging DM to take Max out for the last out. He had nothing left but determination and luck. Thankfully that proved to be enough.
So, not to get too far ahead of myself, but who are we collectively pulling for to win the other NLDS? The idea of the Nats beating playoff ghosts in LAD and STL to get to a WS is so narratively appealing, but then a divisional rivalry in a LCS is also compelling.
Again, I've been a Nats fan too long to be counting unhatched chickens, but I am curious about the commentariat's thoughts on the matter.
"oh now feel it comin' back again
like a rollin' thunder chasing the wind
forces pullin' from the center of the earth again
I can feeeeeeeeeeeeeel iiiiiiitttttttttttttt." - Live, Lightning Crashes
@Harper I was surprised that you didn't have an issue with leaving Max in to face Pederson, and also the decision to leave Zim in to face Baez. It seemed like ripe "wrong decision, right outcome" fodder. Now, I'm not saying that you SHOULD object to either of those decisions; it just seemed like the type of thing where you say "don't judge by outcomes!"
@Kenny B Personally, I have no preference about who wins STL-ATL. All I truly care about in the playoffs currently is the Nats vs. LA.
Who takes it?? Whose team will reign supreme??
My takes:
1. I thought leaving Max in to face Pederson was a mistake, and Nats got lucky. His last pitch to Taylor was actually SUCH a cement mixer that Taylor swung *under* the ball. Then Pederson missed bases clearing double by an inch. But worked out. That was my one gripe....except...
2. The Eaton sac bunting needs to stop. First of all, it’s not like it’s automatic that you get the bunt down and advance Turner...more likely u pop it up, don’t get it down, and screw up the AB. Plus turner has base stealing speed you’re not using. But more than anything, this is your number 2 hitter and you’re vastly diminishing your chance at a big inning. NO SAC BUNTS WITH NON PITCHERS.
3. I think vs Buehler u have to have Cabrera in the lineup. He’s murder on RH hitters. Play kendrick at 1B and being Zim off bench for big AB. I don’t want to see Dozier again this series. So bad.
4. Taylor has always been vaguely capable when facing lefties. He’s not GOOD....he’s just not an automatic out as he is vs righties. So for that reason, sure would be nice to have Robles be back. (Unlikely I guess.)
5. I have this suspicion that in order to win game 5 Soto and Rendon are going to have to show up in a big way. Rendon *almost* hit a couple balls out yesterday. Soto has looked a bit uncomfortable the whole series—granted been facing some tough LHP. But I think especially vs their one tough RHP, they’re going to badly need Soto.
@KB. I hate the Braves more than the Cardinals. I also think we could beat Cardinals easier than braves. Braves are better team. Although freeman clearly is not healthy.
@Potomac Fan. Because of small sample size...and Gomes has (somehow) looked even worse at the plate. Suzuki has hit a couple line drives right at fielders on left side of infield. I think he has one big hit in him.
Did "Matty October"s postseason play just earn him a spot on the 2020 roster?
Couple thoughts-
We are stranding so many runners. Can't have sac flies with the bases loaded the only way to score runs. Although I think the wind was blowing in and those Rendon hits may have actually been HRs on another night (when you think about it, the wind may have actually negated the juiced ball! Unpopular take: So Rendon *isn't* actually a 30 HR hitter).
Don't think you can start Zimm against a RHP Buehler - use him in the big spot again, especially if its against a lefty.
I also like starting MAT again. Why not? And then if we have a lead after 6, switch Robles out for Eaton and shift MAT over to RF for defense. Hell, maybe switch him out for Soto even if we want a real jump in defense.
RE: Zim - The Dodgers will bring in Kershaw at some point - that's when you go to Zim as a straight up replacement for Cabrera.
Do we get home field against Cards? Not sure how it works.
we are wild card so anyone we play will have home field (kinda dumb)
I don't have the fancy stats, but it sure looks to me like Gomes is horrible at pitch framing. He pulls close pitches out of the zone sometimes. And he's generally awful at the plate. In his last appearance, he was first-pitch swinging after a 4 pitch walk to load the bases. You are not Kirby Puckett, Yan... you are not allowed to do that, under any circumstances, ever. Are we clear, Mister Gomes?
DM should not even think about starting Yan Gomes.
Before the series began I told you that the team had a belief that they could always come back, against anyone, and that alone could make a difference. So far so good. I also opined that for the Nats to advance the baseball gods had to intervene on behalf of the good guys. Last night's little adventure with Pederson and the foul ball by inches may have been the baseball god's first intervention. In past year's that ball would have landed fair and changed the complexion of the game. Sheer luck or intervention by the baseball gods. You can decide for yourself.
Great game set for tomorrow. I wonder if the baseball gods need a ticket to get in or whether they get in by some back way. My feeling is that we will need another intervention to pull this off.
Odds on the Dodgers have fallen from minus 380 last night to just minus 152 today. Smart money going on the Nats. We will have to wait and see how smart that money really is.
As for the pressure thing Harper I'm going to disagree with you there.
We had pressure to win the Wildcard game. We HAD TO win that game, prove that we could win an elimination game, when it mattered at home in DC. After how we started the year (19-31) and the team we are playing (everyone's NL world series team) everyone expects us to lose, so how is there pressure on that?? Pressure to prove everyone right??
It's house money from here on out, and really for the Braves and Cardinals too since everyone was penning in that winner to be mince meat for the Dodgers. The only team, in my mind, that has any pressure tomorrow is the Dodgers (well maybe Atlanta too since they are the home team and haven't won a playoff series since 2001, but that's debatable and for another discussion.)
As for the Braves/Cards series and who I want to win. First, let's get through LA first. Second, I'd much rather face the Cards than the Braves. Braves are the better team, though as mentioned Freeman still looks like he has the effect of the end of season injury. But, the main reason I'd rather see the Cardinals than the Braves: Jack Flaherty. By going to a game 5, that means the Nats will likely only see Flaherty once (game 3) unless the series goes 7 games, and for those that don't know only Jake Arrieta in 2015 (when he won the Cy Young award) had a lower second half ERA in the Wildcard era than Flaherty did. He was dominant, especially in August and September. If the Braves win, they'll have to see Mike Soroka twice (and maybe a 3rd time in relief in game 7) and he dominated the Nats for the most part this season. Plus, no one on the Cardinals is hitting at all. Ozuna and Goldschmidt are the only ones actually hot right now. Fowler, at the top of the order is like 1-18, I don't think DeJong has gotten a hit yet, Wong's coming back from injury, Molina had the game-tying and game-winning RBI's Monday but he really hasn't hit either.
Pretty interesting numbers here:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27774413/wish-were-here-non-playoff-teams-most-ex-players-making-noise-october
Sort of throws a wrench in the whole “players start doing well as soon as they leave the Nats.” Asdrubal is the best ex Nat currently in the postseason, and he’s on the team now!
Against Buehler start every left handed bat we have.....within reason, of course. Eaton, Soto, and Baby Shark in the outfield. Cabrera at 2nd. Stevenson for pinch hitting if we need it. Ideally we knock him out and at some point Roberts brings in a lefty that will permit us to use Zim, MAT, and Doze for some late game heroics.
JUST WIN, BABY! I don't care how. Just win.
Oh, and EFF THE BRAVES. I'd love to get some revenge on them, but that's my emotions talking. Realistically, they've had our number and we've played like deer in the headlights against them this year.
Although it's interesting that every Braves fan I know (and I know a lot, being from NC originally) wants no part of the Nationals. Even though Atlanta has pretty much owned us this year, the fans I talk to feel like the Nationals have been kryptonite for the Braves for so long they dread the prospect of playing the Nats for the pennant. I am sure it does not affect the players that way, but fans are funny people sometimes. :-)
538 has the Dodgers at 59% winning odds. Nats have slight edge in starting pitcher, but Dodgers have better overall team and home field.
Though, isn't there some stat like home teams are 13-19 in DS Game 5s?
On leaving Max in to face Pederson--apparently Freese already had his helmet on, more or less the Dodgers showing DM that "if you bring in Doo, we PH Freese." The other team can make moves too. Given what an Oct pest Freese has been, I'm okay with the call not to pull Max and trigger a Freese PH there.
I mentally figured that Max pitched to Pederson because they felt better about that matchup than with whoever the Dodgers would send up as a PH. I would have thought that it would have been Hernandez though, and not Freese.
Please don't start MAT he is terrible against righties. I'd say you have to start Parra if Robles can't go and hope no one hits it to center.
Also, BxJayCobb is absolutely right. The sacrifice bunting from Eaton needs to stop, now. Now, I have no issue with him trying to bunt for a hit, but when you try to bunt for a hit, you try to put the ball in a spot where it's a hit or goes foul.
As much as it might really hurt the defense, they probably should start Cabrera because runs are going to be at a premium.
Finally, the Nats have to stop swinging at high fastballs. If it's up in the zone, let it go unless you're Zim or Turner and can get on top of a high fastball and drive it out. Everyone else needs to let those pitches go, even with 2 strikes because Buehler feasted on the Nats chasing pitches up and out of the zone.
I'd be hesitant to start Parra, because he's had so little playing time and hasn't looked great in his few ABs...but, he probably wouldn't be any worse offensively than Robles or MAT. Then they could pinch hit MAT or Robles (if healthy) once Kershaw comes in.
Definitely Cabrera at 2B. Save Zim for Kershaw.
@JWLumley, You nailed it about the Nats swinging at high fast balls. But the man you need to talk to is Kevin One Trick Pony Long. That is precisely what he coaches those guys to do because statistically it results in more balls hit in the air and thus more home runs. For some reason he's never understood that 1. it also results in more fly ball outs, ESPECIALLY when barometric and hygrometric factors outweigh the sabermetric, and 2. SMALL BALL MOVES THE LINE, SCORES RUNS, AND WINS GAMES.
But again I say, just win baby. I don't care how. Just win.
@Sammy Kent love the fireworks pic!!!
On the topic of CF, I favor MAT for the defense. I'm guessing that neither Parra or MAT will contribute much offensively (but PLEASE prove me wrong!!!!!!) in G5, but we need MAT's glove and rocket arm to keep the D strong. He's also a better baserunner if he does manage to reach base.
And 1000% agree with Sammy's last line: Just win baby.
@Sammy - I know you're no big Kevin Long fan, and that is okay. But I highly doubt he is advocating our guys to swing at high fastballs out of the zone. That pitch is a chase pitch and has been for at least... 100 years. If it were easy to lay off, no one would swing at it. As frustrating as it is, its the players choosing to swing at it.
You act like Kevin Long has a Xbox controller in his hand and keeps hitting the x button on high fastballs for all of our hitters. Agreed, our guys should lay off the high heat. But for goodness sake, its not Kevin Long playing puppet master back there.
What if Stras is at 105 pitches after 7 and given up 1 run and we are tied at 1-1. Do you leave him there for 8th and 9th? That will be a scary decision for DM.
@Anon - If Stras looks good, I ride him until he cries uncle. He's a big strong boy, he can go 135 pitches every once in a while. I'm not even sure I'd use Doolittle unless I had to.
Only if he still has stuff. Davy got very lucky leaving Max in. 1 inch. It honestly feels like the baseball gods are saying it is the Nationals turn.
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